Saskatchewan set to lead country in export growth in 2008, says EDC
(OTTAWA) – November 14, 2007 – Saskatchewan has maintained strong export growth of 14.7 per cent in 2007, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC). The EDC forecast expects Saskatchewan to lead the country in 2008, with 11.7 per cent in export growth in 2008.“While a global economic slowdown is going to see Canada’s export growth fall by half next year, we expect Saskatchewan to buck that trend with strong performance,” said Stephen Poloz, Senior Vice-President of Corporate Affairs and Chief Economist. “Saskatchewan is going to be Canada’s top export performer during a year we expect to be difficult for many exporters.”
Saskatchewan exports will benefit from the lifting of U.S. import restrictions on cattle and beef, greater potash production, and continuing strong crop prices. The agri-food sector will have great export potential over the next few years as demand for crops used in ethanol production remains strong. The province also continues to expand its seeded acreage which will expand export capabilities.
With farmers increasing acreage around the world as a result of strong global demand for crops and the bio-fuel boom, growth in Saskatchewan’s exports of agricultural machinery is expected to reach 8 to 10 per cent in 2007, while fertilizer exports are expected to rise by 33 per cent this year. More modest gains of 5 per cent for agricultural machinery and 11 per cent are forecast for 2008.
Crude petroleum exports have been weak so far in 2007, with a decrease of 25 per cent to date compared to 2006. Petroleum Association of Canada forecasts indicate drilling activity will remain sluggish at the national level and remain flat in Saskatchewan, resulting in a 9 per cent decrease in 2007, rebound to 5 per cent growth in 2008.
Exports of lumber and wood manufacturing equipment are significantly down by 16 per cent in 2007 as a result of turbulence in the U.S. housing market. While weakness in wood exports will continue through 2008, a partial rebound of 7 per cent in exports is forecast.
Nationally, Canadian economic growth is forecast to remain stable at 2.3 per cent in 2007, and 2.6 per cent in 2008. Key price gains in commodities have put Canadian exports on track to increase by 3.7 per cent in 2007, but the impact of weaker U.S. and global demand will have the export growth rate more than halved to 1.5 per cent in 2008. Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 4.9 per cent growth rate in 2007, and 4.5 per cent in 2008. EDC’s Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada’s export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC’s knowledge and partnerships are used by 6,400 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and is a recognized leader in financial reporting, economic analysis and has been recognized as one of Canada’s Top 100 Employers for seven consecutive years.
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Media contact:
Phil Taylor
EDC Public Affairs
(613) 598-2904
ptaylor@edc.ca