Inside the Star

News / Federal Election 2015

Elections are about more than the economy, stupid: Cohn

Six lessons from the last federal election that will change the way future campaigns are fought.

Chris Wattie / Reuters

For all the talk of economic stewardship, Canadians chose an untested Justin Trudeau over a supposedly savvy Stephen Harper.

Post-election post mortems will be conducted and lessons learned.

The way politics played out in the latest federal campaign will change the way politics is played in the next provincial election — and across the country.

Here are six takeaways from the campaign trail:

It’s not about the economy, stupid. Canada’s economic recovery may be fragile, but unemployment has dropped and manufacturing is regaining strength. For all the talk of economic stewardship, Canadians chose an untested Justin Trudeau over a supposedly savvy Stephen Harper as prime minister.

Nor is it about health care, which consistently tops the polls as a pressing issue but never makes it as a ballot question. The environment may be hugely important, but not on election day (ask the Greens). Never mind the niqab, and forget refugees. Corruption doesn’t count, either.

Party platforms matter, but mostly as proxies for the bigger question of judgment. Voters want to know how leaders respond to a matrix of questions, not a single issue.

Consider the wedge issue of the niqab: NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair’s principled critique of Conservative incitement cost him politically, while Trudeau’s Liberals emerged unscathed despite his similar critique.

That’s because Mulcair argued from the head, while Trudeau argued from the heart. The NDP leader relied on Cartesian logic, while Trudeau made an emotional appeal to our better selves (showing he is not completely his father’s son).

Ultimately, winning over voters is about character — not charisma, nor debating points.

Speaking of debates, no more dodging. The spectacle of Harper as a sitting prime minister sitting out televised English language leaders’ debates was anachronistic and asinine. (He attended two debates for the French networks, calculating that he had little to lose in Quebec.) Mulcair’s refusal to meet Trudeau without Harper was equally cowardly and possibly self-defeating.

Trudeau promised in the campaign that he’d participate in future debates televised by the national networks, (not just boutique events carried by specialty channels), and his platform calls for an independent commission to organize future encounters. We need to firm up the structure in advance of campaigns.

A more predictable debate structure might also lead to less predictable coverage and commentary by pundits. It’s not about the knock-out punch. Many argued that former PC leader Tim Hudak won the last two provincial debates on points, but he lost the audience with an inauthentic style. Sometimes, seeming simpatico matters as much as making sense.

Old parties, like old soldiers, don’t die or even fade away. The federal Liberals were on life support after the 2011 election, but came back to life. Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives have long been moribund, but will one day rise from the dead. If the right leader can avoid the wrong right-wing policies, the PCs are bound to benefit from the political change cycle. Despite the deluge, the federal Conservatives retained a robust 35 per cent of the popular vote in Ontario (compared to mere 16.6 per cent for the NDP and 44.8 per cent for the Liberals), which is a strong base.

The NDP faces an existential electoral crisis. Federally, the NDP flirted with power in 2015 just as it did in 1988 — ahead in the polls and on the cusp of a breakthrough. But Canadians prefer to park their votes with the New Democrats between elections — boosting them to artificially high peaks in the polls, then breaking the party’s heart at the ballot box. Beyond the NDP’s western base, provincial breakthroughs (Ontario in 1990, Nova Scotia in 2009, Alberta in 2015) are exceptions that prove the rule.

The trouble with New Democrats tacking to the centre is that they blur their brand, often outsmarting themselves rather than outflanking the Liberals. Ultimately, they undermine the momentum for minority governments.

Believing he had a shot at power, Mulcair renounced deficits to recast himself as a fiscal hawk, while Justin Trudeau’s Liberals made a virtue of deficit financing. Trailing in the campaign homestretch, the NDP’s deathbed pleas for a progressive voice rang hollow: Imagine Mulcair holding the balance of power, demanding that Trudeau rein in his infrastructure investments to balance the budget. That’s a mixed message.

Similarly, Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath tacked right by refusing to support Premier Kathleen Wynne’s proposal for a public pension plan in the last election. Why back New Democrats if they oppose progressive measures? Another mixed-up message.

Retail politics sells. While beer isn’t a ballot box issue, people respect politicians who address their day-to-day concerns. Unfortunately for the provincial Tories, they set aside their plan to liberalize beer sales in Ontario, fearing their platform would be mocked as small beer. On the federal campaign trail, Trudeau wasn’t afraid to press forward on legalizing marijuana sales, despite barbs from both the Conservatives and NDP.

Whether it’s coming to terms with marijuana, coping with niqabs, or debating when to debate, a successful leader knows how to cut through the haze.

Martin Regg Cohn’s Ontario politics column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday. mcohn@thestar.ca , Twitter: @reggcohn

Read more about: Kathleen Wynne, Justin Trudeau, Marijuana

We value respectful and thoughtful discussion. Readers are encouraged to flag comments that fail to meet the standards outlined in our Community Code of Conduct. For further information, including our legal guidelines, please see our full website Terms and Conditions.

Commenting is now closed.