United States presidential election, 2016

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United States presidential election, 2016
United States
2012 ←
November 8, 2016 → 2020
538 electoral votes of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win

Electoral College 2016.svg

The electoral map for the 2016 election, based on populations from the 2010 census

Incumbent President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The United States presidential election of 2016, scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2016, will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college. The Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution prevents the incumbent, President Barack Obama, from running for a third term.

The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are scheduled to take place between February and June of 2016. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.

Background[edit]

Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of no less than 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the President and Vice President.

The incumbent, President Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, is ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to restrictions of the Twenty-second Amendment; his term expires on January 20, 2017. In the 2008 election, Obama was elected president, defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, receiving 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote.[1][2]

2010 midterm elections[edit]

In the 2010 midterm elections, the Democratic Party suffered significant losses in Congress; the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives (thus taking control of the chamber), and 6 seats in the Senate despite retaining an overall majority. As a result of the Republicans' recapture of the House, John Boehner became the 61st Speaker of the House of Representatives. This made Obama the first President in 16 years to lose the House of Representatives in the first half of his first term, in an election that was characterized by the economy's slow recovery, and the rise of the Tea Party movement.[3]

2012 election[edit]

In the 2012 election, incumbent President Barack Obama defeated former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with 51.1% of the popular vote and 332 (or 61.7%) of 538 electoral votes.[4] Meanwhile, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the House of Representatives despite minor losses, while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate.[2]

During his second term, President Obama's approval ratings have been listed by Gallup as between 40 and 50 percent.[5][6][7][8]

Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, 2012, two days after the 2012 election.[9] On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election may be between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named Chris Christie and Cory Booker as potential candidates.[10][11]

2014 midterm elections[edit]

In the 2014 midterm elections, the Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives, increasing their majority to its largest level since 1928.[12] Republicans also gained a majority in the Senate for the first time since the Democrats took control of the chamber after the 2006 elections, thus giving the Republican Party a majority in both chambers of Congress, and their largest majority in Congress since the 71st Congress in 1928.[12] In the corresponding gubernatorial races, Republicans made a net gain of 2 seats to increase their total to 31 Governorships, which further increased to 32 with the Kentucky gubernatorial election one year later.[13][14] Also, the Republicans gained control of 68 of the 98 total state legislative chambers in the entire country, also their largest majority since 1928.[15]

Democratic Party[edit]

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who also served in the U.S. Senate and was the 44th First Lady of the United States, became the first Democrat to announce a candidacy for the presidency, which she did via a video on April 12, 2015.[16] Nationwide opinion polls in 2015 have indicated that Clinton is the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, but faces challenges from Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.[17] Sanders became the second candidate when he made a formal announcement on April 30 that he was running for the Democratic nomination.[18] September 2015 polling numbers indicated a narrowing of the gap between Clinton and Sanders.[19][17][20] Former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley was the third candidate to enter the race, which he did on May 30, 2015.[21] Lincoln Chafee, former Independent Governor and Republican Senator of Rhode Island, announced his candidacy on June 3, 2015.[22][23] Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb announced his candidacy on July 2, 2015.[24] Harvard law professor Lawrence Lessig announced his candidacy on September 6, 2015.[25] On October 20, Jim Webb announced his withdrawal from the Democratic primaries, and is exploring a potential Independent run.[26] Former U.S. Senator from Delaware and incumbent Vice President Joe Biden opted not to run on October 21, ending months of speculation, stating "While I will not be a candidate, I will not be silent."[27][28] Lincoln Chafee withdrew on October 23, stating that he hoped for "an end to the endless wars and the beginning of a new era for the United States and humanity.”[29] Lawrence Lessig withdrew on November 2, after failing to qualify for the second officially-sanctioned DNC debate after adoption of a rule change negated polls which before might have necessitated his inclusion in said debate.[30]

Declared candidates[edit]

Individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination; filed as a Democratic presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes), or successfully filed for a place on a primary ballot. Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.

Candidates featured in major polls[edit]

Democratic Party (United States)
Candidates below have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls, participated in authorized forums and debates, and are on the ballot in at least four states.
Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders
HRC in Iowa APR 2015.jpg
Governor O'Malley Portrait (cropped).jpg
Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
67th
Secretary of State
from New York
(2009–2013)
61st
Governor of Maryland
(2007–2015)
U.S. Senator from Vermont
(2007–present)
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
[31][32][33]
[34][35]
[36][37]

Other candidates[edit]

The following notable individuals are on the primary ballot in at least one state.

The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC.

Publicly expressed interest[edit]

As of October 2015, the following potential candidate has expressed interest in running for president within the past three months.

Withdrawn candidates[edit]

Republican Party[edit]

United States Senator from Texas Ted Cruz became the first major candidate to announce a campaign in the 2016 election, which he did on March 23, 2015.[58][59] Kentucky Senator Rand Paul became the next candidate to announce on April 7, 2015.[60] Marco Rubio, Senator of Florida, became the next candidate, announcing on April 13.[61][62] Both neurosurgeon Ben Carson and businesswoman Carly Fiorina announced their candidacies on May 4, 2015.[63][64] Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas and 2008 presidential candidate, announced his candidacy the next day.[65] 2012 presidential candidate and former Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum announced his campaign on May 27.[66] Former New York Governor George Pataki was the next to announce, doing so on May 28, 2015.[67] Lindsey Graham, Senator from South Carolina, announced he was running on June 1.[68] Former Governor of Texas Rick Perry, who also ran in 2012, announced he was running again on June 4.[69] Former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush joined the race on June 15.[70] Real estate developer and reality TV host Donald Trump announced he was running on June 16.[71] Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana, announced his campaign on June 24.[72] Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey announced he was running on June 30.[73] Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker announced his candidacy on July 13.[74] Ohio Governor John Kasich announced his run on July 21.[75] Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore was the most recent Republican candidate to announce his candidacy, which he did on July 30, 2015.[76] On September 11, 2015, Rick Perry withdrew from the race. Scott Walker withdrew on September 21. Bobby Jindal withdrew his candidacy on November 17.

Declared candidates[edit]

Individuals included in this section have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the Republican Party's presidential nomination; filed as a Republican presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.

Candidates featured in major polls[edit]

Republican Party (United States)
Candidates included in this section have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls
Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina
Governor of Florida Jeb Bush 2015 in NH by Michael Vadon (cropped).jpg
Dr. Ben Carson in New Hampshire on August 13th, 2015 1 by Michael Vadon 17 (cropped).jpg
Chris Christie April 2015 (cropped).jpg
Ted Cruz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Carly Fiorina August 2015.jpg
43rd
Governor of Florida
(1999–2007)
Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery,
Johns Hopkins Hospital
(1984–2013)
55th
Governor of New Jersey
(2010–present)
U.S. Senator from Texas
(2013–present)
CEO of Hewlett-Packard
(1999–2005)
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
[77][78]
[79][80][81]
[82][83]
[84][85][86]
[87][88]
Jim Gilmore Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee John Kasich George Pataki
Jim Gilmore 2015.jpg
Lindsey Graham, official Senate photo portrait cropped.jpg
Mike Huckabee at 2014 CPAC (cropped).jpg
Governor John Kasich.jpg
George Pataki FPU.jpg
68th
Governor of Virginia
(1998–2002)
U.S. Senator from South Carolina
(2003–present)
44th
Governor of Arkansas
(1996–2007)
69th
Governor of Ohio
(2011–present)
53rd
Governor of New York
(1995–2006)
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
[76][89]
[90][91]
[92][93]
[75][94]
[67][95]
Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump
Rand Paul, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg
Marco Rubio, Official Portrait, 112th Congress.jpg
Rick Santorum by Gage Skidmore 8.jpg
Donald Trump September 3 2015.jpg
U.S. Senator from Kentucky
(2011–present)
U.S. Senator from Florida
(2011–present)
U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania
(1995–2007)
Chairman of
The Trump Organization
(1971–present)
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
[96][97][98]
[99][100][101]
[102][103]
[104][105][106]

Other candidates[edit]

The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC.

Withdrawn candidates[edit]

Third party and independent[edit]

Unless otherwise specified, individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of a minor party; formally announced intention to run as an independent candidate; filed as a minor party or non-affiliated candidate with the FEC (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed by minor party and then alphabetically by surname.

American Freedom Party[edit]

Further information: American Freedom Party

Ballot Access to 6 electoral votes: Mississippi[116]

  • Bob Whitaker, political activist from South Carolina.[117] Vice-presidential nominee: Vacant

Green Party[edit]

Ballot Access to 296 Electoral Votes: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Washington D.C., Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin[118][119]

Formally exploring a candidacy[edit]

Independent American Party[edit]

Further information: Independent American Party

Ballot Access to 18 Electoral Votes: New Mexico, Oregon, Utah[124]

  • Farley Anderson, activist from Utah.[125] Vice Presidential nominee: Vacant

Libertarian Party[edit]

Ballot Access to 325 electoral votes: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming[126]

Publicly expressed interest[edit]

Party for Socialism and Liberation[edit]

Ballot Access to 29 electoral votes: Florida[133]

Peace and Freedom Party[edit]

Further information: Peace and Freedom Party

Ballot Access to 84 electoral votes: California, Florida[135][136]

Prohibition Party[edit]

Further information: Prohibition Party

Ballot Access to 0 electoral votes[138]

  • James Hedges, Tax Assessor for Thompson Township, Fulton County, Pennsylvania 2002–2007.[139][140] Vice-presidential nominee: Bill Bayes of Mississippi[139]

Socialist Party USA[edit]

Further information: Socialist Party USA

Ballot Access to 0 electoral votes[141]

  • Mimi Soltysik, former National Co-chair of the Socialist Party USA from California[142] Vice-presidential nominee: Angela Walker of Wisconsin[143]

Veterans Party of America[edit]

Further information: Veterans Party of America

Ballot Access to 6 electoral votes: Mississippi[144]

  • Chris Keniston, reliability engineer from Texas.[145] Vice-presidential nominee: Deacon Taylor of Nevada [146]

Workers World Party[edit]

Further information: Workers World Party

Ballot Access to 0 electoral votes

Independent[edit]

Publicly expressed interest[edit]

  • Lawrence Lessig, Professor of Law at Harvard Law School (Campaign)[160] Having sought the Democratic Party presidential nomination, Lessig has expressed interest in the possibility of instead running as an independent candidate during the 2016 election cycle.
  • Jim Webb, former U.S. Senator (2007-2013) (campaign)[161] Having sought the Democratic Party presidential nomination, Webb has expressed interest in the possibility of instead running as an independent candidate during the 2016 election cycle.

Potential battleground states[edit]

Further information: Swing state

In every state except Maine and Nebraska, the winner of the popular vote in the state wins all of the electoral votes of the state (although state legislatures can, by law, change how electors are elected).[162] Maine and Nebraska use the "congressional district method," in which the winner of the state receives two electoral votes and candidates receive additional electoral votes for each congressional district that they win. Recent presidential campaigns have generally focused their resources on a relatively small number of competitive states.[163][164] Potential battleground states include Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.[165][166] Other potential Democratic targets include Nebraska's second congressional district, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas.[165][166] Meanwhile, Republicans may also target Maine's second congressional district, Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, and New Jersey.[167][166] Other states may also become competitive if the close races of 2016 differ from the close races of the 2012 election, or if 2016 becomes a landslide election. Both major parties might decide to target the home states of their nominees or that of their running mates if they are from a swing state or have high favorability in the state or region. In 2016, there are currently twenty-four state ballot initiatives on marijuana legalization in 16 states including in the swing states of Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico. Historically, marijuana-legalization ballot initiatives are widely acknowledged to “turn out the vote” for single issue, first-time, and younger voters.[168]

Party conventions[edit]

Map of United States showing Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Orlando
   Philadelphia
   Philadelphia
Cleveland
Cleveland
Salt Lake City
Salt Lake City
Orlando
Orlando
Houston
Houston
Sites of the 2016 national party conventions.
Constitution Party
Libertarian Party
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Green Party

Debates[edit]

Primary election debates[edit]

Main articles:

General presidential election debates[edit]

Map of United States showing debate locations
   Wright State UniversityDayton, Ohio
   Wright State University
Dayton, Ohio
Longwood UniversityFarmville, Virginia
Longwood University
Farmville, Virginia
Washington UniversitySt. Louis, Missouri
Washington University
St. Louis, Missouri
University of NevadaLas Vegas
University of Nevada
Las Vegas
Sites of the 2016 General Election Debates

The three locations which will host the presidential debates, and the one location selected to host the vice presidential debate, were announced on September 23, 2015.[176][177][178]

Debates among candidates for the 2016 U.S. presidential election
No. Date Time Host City Moderator Participants
 P  Participant.   N  Non-invitee.   A  Absent invitee.    Democratic Republican
DNC
Nominee
GOP
Nominee
 
P1
 
   September 26, 2016   
TBA
Wright State University
Ohio Flag Map Accurate.png
   Dayton, Ohio   
TBA
 
VP
 
October 4, 2016
TBA
Longwood University
Flag-map of Virginia.svg
   Farmville, Virginia   
TBA
 
P2
 
October 9, 2016
TBA
   Washington University in St. Louis   
Flag-map of Missouri.svg
   St. Louis, Missouri   
TBA
 
P3
 
October 19, 2016
TBA
University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Flag-map of Nevada.svg
   Las Vegas, Nevada   
TBA
Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York will serve as the backup debate location.[178]
       = Officially sanctioned and sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates

Free and Equal will host a debate between the minor parties that are not included but who have enough ballot access to win.[179] It will be located at the Belasco Theater in Los Angeles, California. Currently, the following parties qualify for this debate:

Debate lawsuit[edit]

On June 22, 2015, the advocacy group Level the Playing Field, along with Peter Ackerman, the Green Party, and the Libertarian National Committee, filed a complaint for declaratory and injunctive relief against the Federal Election Commission in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia alleging that its failure to uphold debate fairness laws and address the corruption of the CPD after multiple unresolved requests to do so intentionally excluded third parties from the election process.[180][181] The FEC did take up the original complaint in a July 16 meeting, with a motion to open rulemaking failing 2–4 (Commissioners Ann Ravel (D) and Ellen Weintraub (D) voting aye and Commissioners Lee Goodman (R), Caroline Hunter (R), Matthew Petersen (R), and Steven Walther (D) voting no).[182][183] Because the original complaint became moot after that meeting, the plaintiffs filed another complaint on August 27,[184] amending it on October 22nd.[185] The FEC delivered an 'answer' to the complaint on November 9th, denying the vast majority of the claims made without proving their lack of validity.[186]

Opinion polling[edit]

General election polling
Democratic primary polling
Republican primary polling

See also[edit]

References[edit]

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External links[edit]