Chances of a White Christmas
Will your Christmas be white and snowy?
Check the Environment Canada weather forecast. Since the weather forecast covers the next seven days, you can get the forecast for Christmas Day starting on December 19.
For those who can't wait, Environment Canada has analyzed 59 years of weather records for 43 major centres across Canada, and calculated the probability of having a white snow-covered Christmas Day.
The following table charts the amount of snowfall recorded for major cities across Canada from 1955-2013. From this, a probability can be made to determine if a white Christmas will occur for the current year.
| City | %Chance 1955-2013 | %Chance Now 1994-2013 | %Chance Before 1965-1984 | Perfect Christmas 1955-2007 | Snowdepth Now 1994-2013 | Snowdepth Past 1965-1984 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon | 93 | 90 | 95 | 28 | 19 | 12 |
| Calgary | 58 | 55 | 70 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Charlottetown | 80 | 60 | 95 | 48 | 10 | 15 |
| Edmonton | 86 | 80 | 100 | 20 | 13 | 17 |
| Fredericton | 78 | 55 | 85 | 30 | 8 | 22 |
| Goose Bay | 98 | 95 | 100 | 53 | 37 | 64 |
| Grand Prairie | 85 | 80 | 100 | 26 | 18 | 23 |
| Halifax | 58 | 45 | 65 | 24 | 3 | 9 |
| Hamilton | 63 | 60 | 65 | 26 | 6 | 5 |
| Iqaluit | 100 | 100 | 100 | 51 | 18 | 20 |
| Kamloops | 51 | 45 | 55 | 25 | 5 | 11 |
| Kelowna | 63 | 50 | 75 | 26 | 4 | 8 |
| Kenora | 100 | 100 | 100 | 43 | 23 | 31 |
| Kitchener-Waterloo | 70 | 60 | 73 | 45 | 6 | 9 |
| Lethbridge | 49 | 45 | 55 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| London | 69 | 55 | 80 | 33 | 7 | 9 |
| Medicine Hat | 56 | 50 | 75 | 17 | 5 | 6 |
| Moncton | 75 | 70 | 80 | 40 | 12 | 21 |
| Montreal | 78 | 70 | 85 | 25 | 9 | 17 |
| Ottawa | 81 | 75 | 85 | 35 | 19 | 18 |
| Prince George | 92 | 85 | 100 | 40 | 15 | 20 |
| Penticton | 29 | 20 | 35 | 11 | 2 | 4 |
| Quebec | 98 | 95 | 100 | 60 | 25 | 45 |
| Regina | 92 | 90 | 95 | 38 | 15 | 14 |
| Saint John | 61 | 45 | 70 | 36 | 4 | 12 |
| Sarnia | 61 | 40 | 85 | 19 | 4 | 7 |
| Saskatoon | 95 | 85 | 100 | 22 | 11 | 12 |
| St. John's | 64 | 65 | 50 | 24 | 8 | 9 |
| Sault Ste Marie | 81 | 80 | 95 | 69 | 18 | 24 |
| Stephenville | 83 | 70 | 90 | 64 | 16 | 22 |
| Sudbury | 95 | 90 | 100 | 46 | 20 | 21 |
| Sydney | 61 | 40 | 65 | 46 | 5 | 9 |
| Thunder Bay | 97 | 90 | 100 | 38 | 13 | 23 |
| Timmins | 98 | 95 | 100 | 46 | 30 | 48 |
| Toronto City | 46 | 40 | 50 | 9 | 4 | 4 |
| Toronto(GTA) | 53 | 40 | 65 | 13 | 4 | 5 |
| Vancouver | 10 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Victoria | 10 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Whitehorse | 100 | 100 | 100 | 27 | 18 | 28 |
| Wiarton | 83 | 75 | 90 | 54 | 16 | 18 |
| Windsor | 46 | 45 | 50 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Winnipeg | 98 | 95 | 100 | 11 | 14 | 12 |
| Yellowknife | 100 | 100 | 100 | 27 | 25 | 24 |
Definitions
- % Chance: probability of a white Christmas (snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning at 7 a.m. EST) for full period of 59 years
- % Chance Now: for children today based on period 1994-2013
- % Chance Before: for parents today when they were children based on period 1965-1984
- Perfect Christmas: snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning and snow in the air sometime Christmas day, i.e., a measurable snowfall on Christmas based on period 1955-2007
- Snowdepth Now: average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1994 to 2013
- Snowdepth Past: average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1965 to 1984
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