Despite Artur Mas campaigning to win an absolute majority of seats, in the end his party, Convergence and Union (CiU), suffered a large electoral setback, largely unnoticed by opinion polls. The Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) also fared badly, obtaining the worst result in its history (a record which had already been broken in the 2010 election). While polling in third place, Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) was able to attract the growing pro-independence movement and recovered the 21 seats it had lost in the previous election, becoming the main parliamentary opposition party for the first time.
The People's Party of Catalonia (PPC) and Citizens (C's) benefitted from the electoral polarization between the pro-independence and anti-independence blocs, scoring their best results until then, with 19 and 9 seats, respectively. The Popular Unity Candidates (CUP) entered in the Parliament for the first time with 3 seats.
The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia were elected in 4 multi-member districts, corresponding to Catalonia's four provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-listproportional representation. As the community did not have an electoral law of its own passed into law at the time of the 2012 election, the electoral system came regulated under the community's Statute of Autonomy rules, and subsidiarily, under the Spanish general electoral law (Organic Law 5/1985, of the General Electoral Regime). As a result of the lack of an autonomous electoral law, seats were allocated to districts through specific Laws or Decrees for each election. For the 2012 election, seats were distributed as follows: Barcelona (85), Girona (17), Lleida (15) and Tarragona (18).
Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of valid votes in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.[3][4]
In the 2010 election, Convergence and Union (CiU) was returned to power after 7 years in opposition, as a result of the electoral collapse of all three parties comprising the "Catalan tripartite" government (Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV). Newly-elected President of CataloniaArtur Mas was able to govern comfortably thanks to his party's large parliamentary representation allowing for punctual support of several parties on different issues, in what was known as a policy of "variable geometry".[5][6] In 2011, CiU signed several agreements with the People's Party of Catalonia (PPC) in order to pass the 2011 and 2012 budgets, as well as for the approval of several spending cuts. In spite of this, the relationship between both parties quickly deteriorated after the 2011 general election, as a result of Mas asking new Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy (of the People's Party) for greater fiscal autonomy for Catalonia.[7][8]
On 11 September 2012, a massive pro-independence demonstration marked the Catalan political agenda and re-opened the debate about the right to hold a referendum on the independence of Catalonia,[9][10][11] as well as the debate about the feasibility of an independent Catalan state and its integration into the European Union. On 25 September 2012, President of the Generalitat of Catalonia Artur Mas announced a snap parliamentary election to be held on 25 November and argued, referring to the demonstration, that "this election will not be held to help a party [referring to CiU] to perpetuate itself in power. It will be held so that the whole of the Catalan population decides democratically and peacefully what will their future be as a nation."[12] President Mas signed the decree to officially call the Catalan election on 1 October.[13] Mas' move was criticized as an attempt to try to funnel the popular support for independence seen in the September demonstration into an absolute majority of seats in the election.[14]
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.
Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.
Polls shown below show the recording of raw responses for each party as a percentage of total responses before disregarding those who opted to abstain and prior to the adjusting for the likely votes of those who were undecided to obtain an estimate of vote share. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded.
^ abcdPoll results are shown projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other polls, a rule of three has been applied to the poll projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.
^This poll provides data ranges, approximations and/or various electoral scenario hypotheses calculated using similar weighting parameters. In order to simplify, the average of these data is given.