Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2016

Conservative Party (UK) leadership election

29 June 2016 (2016-06-29) – 9 September 2016 (2016-09-09)

Incumbent Leader David Cameron

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The Conservative Party leadership election, 2016, with the subsequent declaration of the leader is set for 9 September 2016, after David Cameron, the incumbent leader and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, announced he would step down by October 2016 (or sooner, presumably, if the new leader were to be elected on an earlier date) following the Leave result in the UK's referendum on EU membership.

The winner will almost certainly also succeed Cameron as Prime Minister since the Conservative Party is currently the majority party in the House of Commons and the next general election is not set to be held until 7 May 2020, unless the House of Commons votes to dissolve Parliament early under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, or repeals said Act.

Background

During the 2015 general election campaign, David Cameron, then leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister, announced that he would not seek a third term; he was therefore expected to stand down before the next general election, although he spoke of serving a full term.

Following a manifesto commitment, Cameron and the Conservative Party introduced legislation for a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union, which was held on 23 June 2016. Cameron and the Government supported a Remain vote, although the Conservative Party was officially neutral in the campaign and many Conservative politicians, including some Cabinet members, campaigned to Leave. During the campaign, there was speculation as to whether Cameron would resign if Leave won, but on the day of the election both Leave and Remain supporting Conservatives called for him to stay whatever the result.

A Leave win was announced on the morning of 24 June 2016 and Cameron announced shortly afterwards that he would be stepping down. He will continue in post while the leadership election is ongoing, with the new leader to be in place in time for the party conference in October.

It is widely expected that the campaign will be seen through the prism of whether candidates supported Remain or Leave, with a Leave supporter more likely to win according to some analysts. Based on media speculation, the front runners on 29 June were Boris Johnson (Leave) and Theresa May (Remain). Earlier that week, May was leading by a narrow margin in opinion polls commissioned by The Times and by The Independent. She was a strong leader (31 percent vs. 24 percent) among Conservative voters polled by YouGov.

Election procedure

The election process for selecting the leader of the Conservative Party is overseen by the Conservative 1922 Committee, although election procedures are approved by the Board of the Conservative Party. Nominations for the leadership are invited by the Chairman of the 1922 Committee (currently Graham Brady), acting as Returning Officer for all stages of the election. Candidates must be proposed and seconded in writing, with names of the proposers and seconders being published. When nominations close (at noon on a Thursday, 30 June 2016, in this case), a list of valid nominations is published. If there is only one valid nomination, that person is declared elected. If only two valid nominations are received, both names go forward to the general membership of the Party. If more than two nominations are received, a ballot is held within the Parliamentary Party on the Tuesday immediately following the closing date for nominations. An exhaustive ballot system is used to select two candidates to go forward to the general membership of the Party.

A ballot paper is produced and issued to all Conservative Members in the House of Commons, who indicate one choice from the candidates listed. Proxy votes are possible. The ballot is conducted in secret. If there are three candidates in the first ballot, the two who receive the most votes go forward to the general membership. If there are more than three, the candidate receiving the fewest votes is eliminated and a second ballot, under the same rules, is held the following Thursday. If there are no more than three candidates in the second ballot the two receiving the most votes go forward to the general membership. If a third ballot is required, it is held the following Tuesday. This process is repeated as often as necessary on alternate Tuesdays and Thursdays. When a ballot with only three candidates is reached, the two candidates who receive the highest number of votes go forward to the general membership. Candidates may withdraw their names at any time, "up to 24 hours of the opening of the ballot", but no new nominations will be accepted after the first ballot.

The two candidates selected by the Parliamentary Party are then put to the full membership of the Party in a postal ballot. Each Party member, on a "one member one vote" basis, votes for their preferred candidate. The postal ballot goes to "all the members of the Conservative Party in good standing who have been members for not less than three months prior to the date of the announcement of the Vote of Confidence". It is not explicitly stated in the rules from when the three months applies, in the eventuality of the leader resigning, but Rule 5 in the "Rules for the Election of the Leader" (which appears as Schedule 2 to the Constitution of the Conservative Party) gives this as "immediately prior to the close of the ballot for the election of the Leader". The Chairman of the 1922 Committee consults with the Board of the Conservative Party to agree the closing date for the ballot, which will be "as soon as practicable" after the date of the last ballot in the Parliamentary Party. The Chairman, as returning officer, shall agree with the Board who is responsible, under his direction, for the receipt and counting of the votes, and the Chairman announces the results "as soon as practicable" to a meeting of the Parliamentary Party and representatives of the Conservative Party.

Timeline

• 24 June 2016 – Following the result of the referendum on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union, David Cameron announces his resignation as Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative Party.
• 27 June 2016 – The 1922 Committee announce the arrangements for the leadership contest.
• 28 June 2016 – George Osborne announces he will not run for leader; Jeremy Hunt tells Good Morning Britain that he is "seriously considering" putting himself forward as a candidate.
• 28 June 2016 – Stephen Crabb becomes the first Conservative MP for formally announce his candidacy for the leadership. He runs on a ticket with Sajid Javid as his pick for Chancellor.
• 29 June 2016 – Leadership nominations by the Parliamentary Party open at noon.
• 29 June 2016 – Liam Fox becomes the second Conservative MP to enter the leadership contest.
• 30 June 2016 – Nominations close at noon.
• 5 July 2016 – The first ballot is held by the Parliamentary Party.
• 7 July 2016 – A second ballot, if required, is held. Should further ballots be required, they will take place on alternate Tuesdays and Thursdays.
• 8 September 2016 – Closing date for the postal ballot.
• 9 September 2016 – New leader announced.

Candidates

Announced

Name	Born	Constituency	Most recent position	Remain/Leave supporter	Announced candidacy
Crabb, StephenStephen Crabb	000000001973-01-20-000020 January 1973 (age 7001430000000000000♠43)	MP for Preseli Pembrokeshire (2005–present)	Secretary of State for Work and Pensions (2016–present)	Remain	28 June 2016

Announcement pending

The following potential candidates have scheduled events in which they are expected to announce their decision regarding a possible leadership candidacy.

• 

  Liam Fox (Leave supporter),
  MP for North Somerset (1992–present), former Secretary of State for Defence

• 

  Boris Johnson (Leave supporter),
  MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, former Mayor of London

• 

  Theresa May (Remain supporter),
  MP for Maidenhead, incumbent Home Secretary

Publicly expressed interest

As of June 2016, the following potential candidates had publicly expressed interest in running for party leader:

• 

  Robert Buckland (Remain supporter),
  MP for Swindon South, incumbent Solicitor General for England and Wales

• 

  Jeremy Hunt (Remain supporter),
  MP for South West Surrey, incumbent Secretary of State for Health

• 

  Nicky Morgan (Remain supporter),
  MP for Loughborough, incumbent Secretary of State for Education

John Baron (Leave Supporter), MP for Basildon and Billericay
(2001–present)

Potential

As of June 2016, the following individuals have been the subjects of speculation as potential leadership candidates.

Cabinet ministers

• Amber Rudd, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change since 2015; MP for Hastings and Rye since 2010 (Remain supporter)

Junior ministers

• Andrea Leadsom, Minister of State for Energy and Climate Change since 2015; MP for South Northamptonshire since 2010 (Leave supporter)
• Penny Mordaunt, Minister of State for the Armed Forces since 2015; MP for Portsmouth North since 2010 (Leave supporter)

Declined

The following individuals were the focus of media speculation as being possible leadership candidates, but ruled out a bid:

• Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee since 2010; MP for Altrincham and Sale West since 1997 (Leave supporter)
• George Freeman, Parliamentary Undersecretary of State for Life Sciences since 2014; MP for Mid Norfolk since 2010 (Remain supporter)
• Michael Gove, Secretary of State for Justice since 2015; Chief Whip 2014–2015; Secretary of State for Education 2010–2014; MP for Surrey Heath since 2005 (Leave supporter) (endorsed Boris Johnson)
• Chris Grayling, Leader of the House of Commons since 2015; MP for Epsom and Ewell since 2001 (Leave supporter)
• Justine Greening, Secretary of State for International Development since 2012; MP for Putney (Remain supporter) (endorsed Theresa May)
• Sajid Javid, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills since 2015; MP for Bromsgrove since 2010 (Remain supporter) (endorsed Stephen Crabb)
• David Morris, MP for Morecambe and Lunesdale since 2015 (Remain supporter) (endorsed Stephen Crabb)
• Jesse Norman, Chairman of the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee since 2015; MP for Hereford and South Herefordshire since 2010 (endorsed Boris Johnson)
• George Osborne, First Secretary of State since 2015; Chancellor of the Exchequer since 2010; MP for Tatton (Remain supporter)
• Priti Patel, Minister of State for Employment since 2015; MP for Witham (Leave supporter)
• Owen Paterson, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 2012–2014; Secretary of State for Northern Ireland 2010–2012; MP for North Shropshire since 1997 (Leave supporter)
• Dominic Raab, Parliamentary Undersecretary of State for Justice since 2015; MP for Esher and Walton (Leave supporter)
• Anna Soubry, Minister of State for Small Business since 2015; MP for Broxtowe (Remain supporter)
• Liz Truss, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs since 2014; MP for South West Norfolk since 2010 (Remain supporter) (endorsed Boris Johnson)

Endorsements

Stephen Crabb

MPs

• Alun Cairns, Secretary of State for Wales since 2016; MP for Vale of Glamorgan since 2010
• Maria Caulfield, MP for Lewes since 2015
• Steve Double, MP for St Austell and Newquay since 2015
• Mark Garnier, MP for Wyre Forest since 2010
• Luke Hall, MP for Thornbury and Yate since 2015
• Simon Hoare, MP for North Dorset since 2015
• Sajid Javid, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills since 2015; MP for Bromsgrove since 2010 (running mate)
• Johnny Mercer, MP for Plymouth Moor View since 2015
• David Morris, MP for Morecambe and Lunesdale since 2015
• Chris Skidmore, Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Chancellor of the Exchequer since 2015, MP for Kingswood since 2010
• Chloe Smith, former Economic Secretary to the Treasury 2011–2012; MP for Norwich North since 2009
• Edward Timpson, Minister of State for Children and Families since 2015, MP for Crewe and Nantwich since 2008
• Craig Williams, MP for Cardiff North since 2015
• Jeremy Wright, Attorney General since 2014; MP for Kenilworth and Southam since 2005 (campaign manager)

Opinion polling

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size	Margin of error	Stephen Crabb	Liam Fox	Jeremy Hunt	Boris Johnson	Theresa May	Nicky Morgan	George Osborne	Other/ Undecided
26–27 June 2016	YouGov/The Times	438 Conservative voters	± 4%	1%	4%	1%	24%	31%	0%	4%	Don't know 24% Michael Gove 8% Sajid Javid 2% Andrea Leadsom 1%
		2,013 British residents		2%	3%	1%	18%	19%	0%	3%	Don't know 44% Michael Gove 5% Sajid Javid 3% Andrea Leadsom 1%
25 June 2016	Bristol Post	700 voters	± ?	—	19%	—	41%	27%	1%	7%	Michael Gove 6%
24 June 2016	David Cameron announces resignation as Leader of the Conservative Party and as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
23 June 2016	The United Kingdom votes to Leave the European Union in a nationwide referendum.
23–26 February 2016	YouGov	1,005 Conservative Party members	± 4%	—	—	—	43%	19%	1%	22%	Sajid Javid 7% Don't know 7%
14–17 November 2015	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard	307 Conservative voters	± 4%	—	—	—	32%	26%	—	23%	19%
		1,021 British residents		—	—	—	25%	19%	—	11%	45%
19–23 September 2015	Ipsos MORI	395 Conservative voters	± 4%	—	—	—	29%	18%	—	32%	19%
		1,255 British residents		—	—	—	27%	17%	—	15%	41%
21–22 September 2015	Survation/Huffington Post UK	303 Conservative voters	± 3.1%	—	—	2.9%	30.4%	16.3%	0.9%	26.2%	23.3%
		1,008 British residents		—	—	2%	25%	11.2%	2.1%	14.6%	45.2%

See also

• Next United Kingdom general election
• United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016
• Labour Party (UK) leadership election, 2015