Myanmar general election, 2015

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  (Redirected from Myanma general election, 2015)
Jump to: navigation, search
Myanmar general election, 2015
Myanmar
2010 ←
 8 November 2015[1]
330 (of the 440) seats to the House of Representatives
221 seats needed for a majority

168 (of the 224) seats to the House of Nationalities
113 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party
  Remise du Prix Sakharov à Aung San Suu Kyi Strasbourg 22 octobre 2013-18.jpg TheinSeinASEAN.jpg
Leader Aung San Suu Kyi Thein Sein
Party NLD USDP
Leader since 27 September 1988 2 June 2010
Leader's seat Kawhmu Did not contest
Seats won 255 R / 135 N 30 R / 12 N
Seat change Increase218 R / Increase132 N Decrease182 R / Decrease112 N
President before election

Thein Sein
USDP

 President-designate

To be determined
NLD
Myanmar
State seal of Myanmar.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Myanmar

Portal icon Politics portal

General elections were held in Myanmar on 8 November 2015.[1][2] Voting occurred in all constituencies, excluding seats appointed by the military, to select Members of Assembly to seats in both the upper house (the House of Nationalities) and the lower house (the House of Representatives) of the Assembly of the Union, and State and Region Hluttaws. Ethnic Affairs Ministers were also elected by their designated electorates on the same day, although only select ethnic minorities in particular states and regions were entitled to vote for them.

These polls are the first openly-contested election held in the country since 1990, which was annulled by the military government after the National League for Democracy's (NLD) victory. The poll was preceded by the 2010 General Election, which was marred by a widespread boycott and allegations of systematic fraud by the victorious USDP.

The NLD won an absolute majority of seats in the combined national parliament needed to ensure its preferred nominees will be elected president and first vice president in the Presidential Electoral College. It also won majorities in each respective chamber of parliament, which give it the control over the bill passage and national legislation. While NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi is constitutionally barred from the presidency (as both her husband and her children are foreign citizens), she has let it be known that she will hold the real power in any NLD-led government.[3]

Preparation[edit]

As the election approached, the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party confirmed it would contest its winning constituencies from 2010.[4] The opposition National League for Democracy party confirmed it would contest even if a constitutional measure barring Aung San Suu Kyi from running for president was not amended.[5]

The National Unity Party confirmed it would review its winning seats from 2010 and would consider other constituencies to challenge. The National Democratic Force said the party was prepared to challenge in as many as 200 constituencies but was still determining candidates. Ethnic political groups would contest in each state based on ethnic party strongholds, although some indicated they would consider forming an alliance as the Federal Union Party.

Before the election, 91 political parties were registered to take part in 2015.

In July 2015, Myanmar's Union Election Commission (UEC) designated the number of constituencies for running in the 2015 general election of four levels of parliamentary representatives: 330 constituencies for elections to the House of Representatives (the lower house), 168 for the House of Nationalities (the upper house), 644 for the State and Regional Hluttaws (local parliaments) and 29 for ethnic ministers of the local parliaments. The UEC also issued procedures for international observers to follow in monitoring the election, which was preliminarily scheduled for the end of October or the beginning of November.[6]

The Union Election Commission cancelled elections in Kyethi and Mong Hsu townships in Shan State following armed clashes between the Tatmadaw and the insurgent Shan State Army - North. Despite calls by the Shan State Progressive Party to proceed with the elections, the UEC has denied the request, stating that it is not possible to hold free and fair elections in these areas. Elections were further cancelled in some villages in Hopang, Namtit, both of which fall within the nation's Wa Self-Administered Division, and under the control of the insurgent United Wa State Army. The cancellation of these elections will see the vacancy of 7 seats in the House of Representatives and 14 seats in the Shan State Hluttaw.

Cancellation of by-elections[edit]

By-elections had been scheduled to be held in November or December 2014, to elect members for six seats in the House of Nationalities, 13 in the House of Representatives, and 11 in state and regional legislatures. The seat vacancies were primarily the result of their former holders' moves to ministerial posts or departmental positions within government, but also included some other constituencies where representatives had died.[7][8][9][10] The by-elections were expected to indicate the relative strengths of the contending parties, including President Thein Sein's Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) party led by Aung San Suu Kyi.[8]

On 7 September 2014, the Union Election Commission cancelled the by-election because the period for campaigning would take place too close to that of the general elections in 2015 and because the results would therefore not have had any political significance.[11][12]

Possible candidates[edit]

In the event of a USDP victory, President Thein Sein was considered the frontrunner to continue as President after the election. Commander-in-Chief of the Military Min Aung Hlaing is close to retirement and was another favourite for the presidency, but may assume the role after a transitional period headed by another ex-military figure. Aung San Suu Kyi has reiterated her desire to become the next president but constitutional changes need to take place before she would be allowed to run.[13] Although Parliament voted against most constitutional amendments on 25 June 2015 meaning that Aung San Suu Kyi cannot become president in the election,[14] Suu Kyi later stated that she would be "above the President" if the NLD won the elections.[15]

Shwe Mann, the former No. 3 in the junta who is now speaker of House of Representatives, considered reform-minded, was the most likely figure to take the mantle from Thein Sein until he was removed from his position within the party on 12 August 2015.[16][17]

Results[edit]

A polling station used for elections. The ballot boxes are at the front, while the voting booths are at the rear.

The National League for Democracy (NLD) obtained a majority of total seats in both the House of Nationalities and the House of Representatives of the Assembly of the Union, which is enough for its nominees to win election as president and first vice president in the Presidential Electoral College, and for control over national legislation.[18]

The NLD also received a majority of total combined seats in the State and Regional Hluttaws, including 21 of 29 Ministers of Ethnic Affairs. With the final tally of all elected seats (district and ethnic), it is believed they will have the ability to control most local governments and parliaments, either entirely on its own or with the support of ethnic parties. The exceptions to this are the Rakhine State Hluttaw, where the Arakan National Party won a plurality of total seats and is expected to govern with the NLD's support, and the Shan State Hluttaw, where the USDP (which won a plurality of elected seats) and Military Representatives control roughly equal seats to the combined total of the various other parties, led by the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy and the NLD in second and third place, respectively.

House of Nationalities[edit]

A ballot paper and rubber stamp in voting booth

168 of the 224 seats in the Amyotha Hluttaw (House of Nationalities) were up for election. The remaining 56 seats (25%) were not elected, and instead reserved for military appointees (taken from Tatmadaw personnel; officially known as "Army Representatives").

House of Nationalities elections, 2015[19]
Party Seats Net Gain/Loss Seats % Votes % Votes +/−
  NLD 135 Increase132 60.27
  USDP 12 Decrease112 5.36
  ANP 10 Increase4 4.46
  SNLD 3 Increase2 1.34
  ZCD 2 Increase2 0.89
  MNP 1 Increase1 0.45
  NUP 1 Decrease4 0.45
  PNO 1 Increase1 0.45
  TNP 1 Increase1 0.45
  Independent 2 Increase2 0.89
  AMRDP 0 Decrease4 0
  SNDP 0 Decrease3 0
  Others 0 Decrease18 0
  Military appointees 56 Steady 25.00 – – 0
Total 224 100

House of Representatives[edit]

330 of the 440 seats in the Pyithu Hluttaw (House of Representatives) were up for election. The remaining 110 seats (25%) were not elected, and instead reserved for military appointees (taken from Tatmadaw personnel; officially known as "Army Representatives").

House of Representatives elections, 2015[20]
Party Seats Net Gain/Loss Seats % Votes % Votes +/−
  NLD 255 Increase218 57.95
  USDP 30 Decrease182 6.81
  ANP 12 Increase4 2.73
  SNLD 12 Increase12 2.73
  PNO 3 Steady 0.68
  TNP 3 Increase1 0.68
  LNDP 2 Increase2 0.45
  ZCD 2 Increase2 0.45
  KSDP 1 Steady 0.23
  KDUP 1 Steady 0.23
  WDP 1 Decrease1 0.23
  Independent 1 Increase1 0.23
  SNDP 0 Decrease18 0
  NUP 0 Decrease12 0
  AMRDP 0 Decrease3 0
  Others 0 Decrease12 0
  Cancelled due to insurgence[21] 7 1.59
  Military appointees 110 Steady 25.00 – – 0
Total 440 100 100

State and Regional Hluttaws[edit]

There are 644 district seats (out of a total of 860)[22][better source needed] in the State and Regional Hluttaws, or Local Assemblies, of which 630 were up for election after 14 seats were cancelled due to the ongoing armed insurgencies in Shan State. These figures exclude the 29 elected Ethnic Affairs Ministers, who have different election parameters but also sit alongside the elected district and appointed military members of their respective state/region with full membership rights. The remaining 216 seats[note 1] (approximately 25% of each assembly) were not elected, and instead reserved for military appointees (taken from Tatmadaw personnel; officially known as "Army Representatives").

State/Regional Assemblies elections, 2015[23]
Party Seats Net Gain/Loss Seats % Votes % Votes +/−
  NLD 476 Increase474 55.35
  USDP 73 Decrease411 8.49
  SNLD 25 Increase21 2.91
  ANP 22 Increase4 2.56
  TNP 7 Increase3 0.81
  PNO 6 Steady 0.70
  KSDP 3 Increase3 0.35
  LNDP 2 Increase2 0.23
  MNP 2 Increase2 0.23
  WDP 2 Increase2 0.23
  ZCD 2 Increase2 0.23
  AMRDP 1 Decrease7 0.12
  DP 1 Decrease2 0.12
  KPP 1 Decrease1 0.12
  KDUP 1 Increase1 0.12
  LHNDP 1 Steady 0.12
  SNDP 1 Decrease30 0.12
  TLNDP 1 Increase1 0.12
  UDPKS 1 Decrease1 0.12
  WNUP 1 Increase1 0.12
  Independent 1 Decrease2 0.12
  Others 0 Decrease27 0.00
  Cancelled due to insurgence 14 1.63
  Military appointees 216[note 1] Steady 25.12 – – 0
Total 860 100 100

Ethnic Affairs Ministers[edit]

29 seats of the Ethnic Affairs Ministers for the State and Regional Assemblies were up for election.

"Under the 2008 Constitution, ethnic affairs ministers are elected to a given state or division if that division is comprised of an ethnic minority population of 0.1 percent or greater of the total populace [roughly 51,400 people].[24] If one of the country's ethnic minorities counts a state as its namesake, however, it is not granted an ethnic affairs minister (e.g., there is no Mon ethnic affairs minister in Mon State). Only voters who share an ethnic identity with a given ethnic affairs minister post are allowed to vote for candidates to the position."[25] Ministers are not elected for ethnicities that are a majority of their state or region, or where a state/region already has a self-administered district or self-administered zone dedicated to those ethnic groups.[24]

Ethnic Affairs Minister elections, 2015[26]
Party Seats Net Gain/Loss Seats % Votes % Votes +/−
  NLD 21 Increase21 72.41
  USDP 2 Decrease9 6.90
  ANP 1 Increase1 3.45
  ANDP 1 Increase1 3.45
  LHNDP 1 Increase1 3.45
  LNDP 1 Increase1 3.45
  TLNDP 1 Increase1 3.45
  Independent 1 Steady 3.45
  SNLD 0 Decrease1 0
  Others 0 Decrease6 0
Total 29 100 100

Reactions[edit]

On 9 November 2015, former chairperson of the Union Solidarity and Development Party and Speaker of the House of Representatives, Shwe Mann, conceded defeat to the National League for Democracy's Than Nyunt in his hometown constituency of Phyu, announcing on his Facebook that he had 'personally congratulated' his opponent for the victory.[27]

On 9 November 2015, acting chairperson of the Union Solidarity and Development Party, Htay Oo, announced that the party had conceded defeat in a statement to Reuters.[28]

On 11 November 2015, chairperson of the National League for Democracy, Aung San Suu Kyi, called for 'national reconciliation' talks with incumbent president, Thein Sein, commander-in-chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, and Speaker of the House of Representatives, Shwe Mann to be set for a later date. All have accepted her invitation.[29]

On 12 November 2015, incumbent President of Myanmar, Thein Sein, who has led political reforms during his tenure, congratulated Aung San Suu Kyi and her party on his Facebook, promising that his current government will 'respect and obey' the election results and 'transfer power peacefully'. Commander-in-chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, also took to his Facebook to congratulate Ms Suu Kyi, vowing that the Tatmadaw will co-operate with the new government following the transition. This was after a meeting conducted within the Tatmadaw's top ranks.[30] US President Barack Obama and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon congratulated Suu Kyi on her victory and praised Thein Sein for his organisation of the election.[31] Suu Kyi also received calls from French President François Hollande, British Prime Minister David Cameron and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.[32][33]

Controversy[edit]

Controversy has been raised over such issues as inaccurate voter lists, cancellation of voting in some violent areas, vilification of Burmese Muslims as a campaign tool,[34] and the ineligibility to vote of the Muslim Rohingyas.[35] According to The Economist, "No matter how many millions of Burmese vote against the Union Solidarity and Development Party, which rules the country and is backed by the army, the army will remain the real power in Myanmar."[36]

There have been allegations of fraud in many townships where unknown ballots cast as advance votes boosted the results of the Union Solidarity Development Party. The Union Election Commission has defended these votes, stating that they had arrived before the polling booths closed, and thus they were legitimate votes. In Lashio, where the National League for Democracy was expected to win, there are allegations of voting fraud which pulled USDP candidate and incumbent vice-president Sai Mauk Kham forward by more than 4000 votes. The NLD, Shan Nationalities League for Democracy and Shan Nationalities Democratic Party have agreed to file a complaint with the Union Election Commission. The UEC responded by declaring that the victory of Sai Mauk Kham was legal and that no fraud had taken place.[37]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b Calculated as total seats (860) minus elligible seats (644)

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b "Myanmar General Elections Scheduled in Late 2015: Election Official". 
  2. ^ "General Election will be Nov- Dec 2015, says EC chairman". DVB News. 20 March 2014. Retrieved 13 April 2014. 
  3. ^ "Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy Wins Majority in Myanmar". BBC News. 13 November 2015. Retrieved 13 November 2015. 
  4. ^ "Political parties gear up for 2015 election". Mizzima.com. 15 October 2013. Retrieved 29 December 2013. [dead link]
  5. ^ "Suu Kyi's party says it will contest 2015 Myanmar election even if constitution is not amended". Star Tribune. Retrieved 29 December 2013. [dead link]
  6. ^ "#MyanmarElections2015: UEC issues procedures for international observers". MyanmarBusinessNews.com. 4 July 2015. Retrieved 5 July 2015. 
  7. ^ "Official Confirms Burma By-Elections Due This Year". Irrawaddy.org. 21 March 2014. Retrieved 10 April 2014. [dead link]
  8. ^ a b "Myanmar to Hold By-Elections at End of Year". Rfa.org. Retrieved 10 April 2014. 
  9. ^ "General Election will be Nov- Dec 2015, says EC chairman | DVB Multimedia Group". Dvb.no. 20 March 2014. Retrieved 10 April 2014. 
  10. ^ "Burma plans by-elections for 28 seats this year". Asian Correspondent. 21 March 2014. Retrieved 10 April 2014. 
  11. ^ Aung Hla Tun (7 September 2014). "Myanmar cancels by-elections". Yahoo!News. Reuters. Retrieved 7 September 2014. 
  12. ^ "By-elections cancelled". DVB News. 7 September 2014. Retrieved 7 September 2014. 
  13. ^ "Aung San Suu Kyi: 'I want to be Burma's president'". BBC. 7 June 2013. Retrieved 29 December 2013. 
  14. ^ "Myanmar's parliament blocks changes to constitution". US News & World Report. 
  15. ^ Suu Kyi 'will be above president' if NLD wins Myanmar election BBC News, 5 November 2015
  16. ^ Krause, Flavia (3 May 2012). "Myanmar's Leader May Step Aside After 2015 Elections, Aide Says". Bloomberg. Retrieved 29 December 2013. 
  17. ^ Campbell, Charlie (13 August 2015). "Burmese President Purges Party Chief". Time. 
  18. ^ Dinmore, Guy (13 November 2015). "NLD Wins Absolute Majority in Parliament". The Myanmar Times. 
  19. ^ "Announcement 93/2015". Union Election Commission. Retrieved 20 November 2015. 
  20. ^ "Announcement 92/2015". Union Election Commission. Retrieved 20 November 2015. 
  21. ^ Oliver Holmes (11 November 2015). "Myanmar election: Aung San Suu Kyi calls for reconciliation talks with military". The Guardian. Retrieved 11 November 2015. 
  22. ^ "European Union Election Observation Mission. Myanmar, General Elections, 2015. Preliminary Statement" (PDF). Election Observation and Democratic Support. 2015-11-10. Retrieved 2015-11-21. 
  23. ^ "That's a Wrap: UEC (Finally) Calls Last 11 Election Races". The Irrawaddy. 20 November 2015. Retrieved 20 November 2015. 
  24. ^ a b Myanmar 2015 General Elections Fact Sheet
  25. ^ Zaw, Nobel (15 January 2015). "Ethnic Affairs Ministers Defend Seat at Negotiating Table after Suu Kyi Remarks". The Irrawaddy. 
  26. ^ "Announcement 94/2015". Union Election Commission. Retrieved 20 November 2015. 
  27. ^ "Myanmar's Ex-USDP Chair Shwe Mann Concedes Defeat". 9 November 2015. 
  28. ^ Mclaughlin, Timothy; Yadana Zaw, Hnin (11 November 2015). "Myanmar Army, President Endorse Suu Kyi Victory, Vow Stable Transition". Reuters. 
  29. ^ "President Thein Sein Accepts Suu Kyi's Call for Talks". Channel NewsAsia. 11 November 2015. 
  30. ^ "Thein Sein congratulates NLD". 
  31. ^ "Aung San Suu Kyi's party wins majority, Burma election officials confirm". CBC News. 13 November 2015. Retrieved 13 November 2015. 
  32. ^ Sherwell, Philip (13 November 2015). "Burma Election: Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD Party Clinches Landslide Victory". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 13 November 2015. 
  33. ^ "Modi Calls up to Congratulate Suu Kyi on Myanmar Election Win". The Times of India. 12 November 2015. Retrieved 13 November 2015. 
  34. ^ "Why Burmese monks accuse Aung San Suu Kyi of being an Islamist". The Economist. 4 November 2015. Retrieved 9 November 2015. 
  35. ^ "The first proper election in a generation is a stepping stone to an uncertain future". The Economist. 31 October 2015. Retrieved 31 October 2015. 
  36. ^ "Myanmar's poll will be less rigged than previous ones, but military rule is far from over". The Economist. 31 October 2015. Retrieved 31 October 2015. 
  37. ^ "Lashio Voting". 
General elections
By-elections
Referendums
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Myanmar_general_election,_2015&oldid=692129776"