Conservative Party of Canada leadership election, 2017

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Conservative Party of Canada leadership election, 2017
Canada
2004 ←
 May 27, 2017
  Maxime Bernier.jpg Michael Chong.jpg KellieLeitch2014.jpg
Candidate Maxime Bernier Michael Chong Kellie Leitch
Party Conservative Conservative Conservative
Leader before election

Rona Ambrose (Interim)

 Elected Leader

TBD
Conservative leadership election, 2017
Date May 27, 2017
Convention TBD
Resigning leader Stephen Harper
Won by TBD
Entrance Fee C$100,000
($50,000 of which is a refundable compliance deposit)[1]
Spending limit $5,000,000

Progressive Conservative leadership elections
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Canadian Alliance leadership elections
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Conservative leadership elections
2004, 2017

The 2017 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election will be held on May 27, 2017 to choose a successor to Stephen Harper, who led the Conservative Party of Canada as its first permanent leader from 2004 following the merger of the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties. Harper led the party through five general elections: the party increased its seat count in the House of Commons in 2004, formed two minority governments in 2006, and 2008, and then a majority government in 2011. Following the defeat of his party in the October 19, 2015 election, Harper tendered his resignation as party leader on election night.[2] In a statement, Conservative Party President John Walsh said he had spoken to Harper, "and he has instructed me to reach out to the newly elected parliamentary caucus to appoint an Interim Leader and to implement the leadership selection process."[3]

Interim leadership[edit]

Conservative Party president John Walsh's letter to caucus stated that only Members of Parliament (MPs) would vote for the interim leader, but Conservative Senators pointed out that the party constitution states that the entire parliamentary caucus votes.[4][5] The caucus allowed Senators to vote, declining to adopt the provisions of the Reform Act that would have only allowed MPs to vote.[6][7]

The caucus chose Rona Ambrose, MP for Sturgeon River—Parkland, Alberta and former Minister of Health, as interim leader at its first meeting on November 5, 2015 in a vote by preferential ballot.[8][9][10] Ambrose, as the interim leader, will also serve as Leader of the Official Opposition in the Parliament of Canada until a permanent leader is chosen. She defeated Candice Bergen, Diane Finley, Mike Lake, Rob Nicholson, Erin O'Toole, and the joint ticket of Denis Lebel and Michelle Rempel in the caucus vote.[11][12][13][10][14]

Under the party's constitution, Ambrose, as the interim leader, may not run for the permanent position.[12]

Leadership election timing[edit]

Following Harper's resignation, debate emerged within the Conservative Party regarding the timing of the leadership election. Initially, some members of the party’s national council were calling for a leadership convention as early as May 2016 according to Maclean's magazine.[15] However, interim leader Rona Ambrose has said there is a consensus among the party's caucus that the leadership election shouldn't be rushed and should be held sometime in 2017.[16][17][17][18] In a December 2015 interview, Ambrose said the party will take its time allowing all members, including those not already involved in politics, to build a strong candidacy. "If we take a little extra time, that will mean we'll have a better leadership race,"[19]

The Conservative Party's Leadership Election Organizing Committee (LEOC) met at Toronto's Albany Club January 15–17, 2016 to discuss the process for the Party to elect its next leader. Among its decisions, LEOC selected May 27, 2017 for Conservative Party members to elect their next leader.[20]

Rules[edit]

Only party members will be allowed to vote.[21] The fee for a party membership was raised to $25 from $15, an increase that was reversed on April 23, 2016 after criticisms that the move was "elitist".[22] Membership fees can only be paid via personal cheque or credit card. Cash payments will not be permitted. This new requirement is intended to prevent the election being dominated by new members, and to prevent anyone other than the individual member, such as a candidate's campaign, from signing up scores of members and paying the membership fees in cash out of campaign funds.[23]

Candidates must be members of the party for at least six months in order to be eligible. Voting will be on a One Member One Vote basis using a ranked ballot; however votes will be calculated so that each electoral district have equal weight with each electoral district allocated 100 points. Candidates will be assigned a point total based on his or her percentage of the vote in each electoral district. To win, a candidate must receive at least 16,901 points which would be a majority.[1][24]

To register, candidates must submit nomination forms signed by 300 party members from at least 30 electoral districts in at least seven different provinces and territories as well as pay a $50,000 non-refundable deposit and an additional $50,000 compliance deposit which is refundable provided the candidate complies with campaign rules, and fill out a 40 page questionnaire that asks for references, criminal background and credit checks, agreement with basic party principles, a list of social media accounts, and questions about possible controversial positions the candidate has taken in the past as well as affiliations and personal associations and behaviour that may be problematic. A party committee reviews the candidate's nomination form and may disqualify a potential candidate.[25] Candidates are allowed to spend a maximum of $5 million on their campaigns.[26]

Timeline[edit]

  • October 19, 2015 – Federal election results in defeat of Conservative government. As Harper spoke to supporters in Calgary, making no reference to his future, a statement was released by the party announcing Harper's resignation as party leader and his request that an interim leader be chosen to lead the party in parliament until a leadership election can be held.[2]
  • November 4, 2015 – Harper resigns as prime minister; Liberal government led by Justin Trudeau sworn in.[27]
  • November 5, 2015 – Conservative caucus held its first meeting since the 2015 federal election[28] and chose former health minister[29] Rona Ambrose interim leader of the party.[4]
  • December 4–5, 2015 – National Council meets, 20-member Leadership Election Organization Committee appointed, including seven members of the National Council and MP Diane Finley, all of whom have pledged to be neutral during the leadership campaign; Dan Nowlan is appointed the committee's chair.[16][17]
  • January 15–17, 2016 – The Leadership Election Organization Committee meets at the Albany Club in Toronto to decide on the date of the leadership vote, the deadline for candidates to be nominated, campaign spending limits, the entrance fee for candidates and the appeals process for any disputes.[30]
  • May 26–28, 2016 – Conservative Party national policy convention, to be held at the Vancouver Convention Centre, will vote on policy and elect party president and other officials.[17] An attempt to change the party constitution to allow the party's interim leader, Rona Ambrose, to seek the permanent leadership is defeated.[31]
  • February 24, 2017, 5pm ET (UTC-5) – Nomination period closes.[1]
  • March 28, 2017, 5pm ET (UTC-5) – Membership deadline.[1]
  • May 27, 2017 – Leadership election is held.[20]

Declared candidates[edit]

Maxime Bernier[edit]

Maxime Bernier
Background

Maxime Bernier, 53, is the MP for Beauce, Quebec (2006–present) and was the Shadow Minister of Innovation (2015—2016). He served in the Harper government as Minister of State for Small Business and Tourism (2011–2015), Minister of Foreign Affairs (2007–2008), and Minister of Industry (2006–2007),[32][33][34][35] Bernier is considered a libertarian and advocate of limited government.[36][37][38] Prior to entering federal politics in 2006 Bernier, a lawyer by training, was vice-president of the Standard Life of Canada Insurance company and manager of corporate and international relations at the Commission des valeurs mobilières du Québec.[39]

Date candidacy announced: April 7, 2016[40]
Campaign website: www.maximebernier.com
Supporters
Other information
  • Supports the legalization/decriminalization of marijuana.[43] Wants to end "corporate welfare" (business subsidies).[44] Calls for smaller government, lower taxes, and paying down the national debt.[45][46][47]

Michael Chong[edit]

Michael Chong
Background

Michael Chong, 44, is the MP for Wellington—Halton Hills, Ontario (2004–present) and was the Deputy Shadow Minister of the Environment (2015-2016). Previously, he was Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs and Youth (2006) and Minister of Sport (2006). Chong resigned from the Harper cabinet in 2006 to protest the government's recognition of the Québécois as a nation within Canada. As a backbench MP he advocated democratic reforms in Parliament to limit the power of the Prime Minister’s Office and party leaders over their caucuses and individual MPs and introduced the Reform Act to give caucuses the option of the power to remove party leaders, elect caucus chairs, and expel or readmit MPs, and elect interim leaders.[6][48][49][50]

Date campaign announced: May 16, 2016[51]
Campaign website: www.chong.ca
Supporters
Other information
Advocates modernizing democratic institutions and strengthening the independence of MPs and parliamentary committees.[51]

Kellie Leitch[edit]

Kellie Leitch
Background

Kellie Leitch, 45, is the MP for Simcoe—Grey, Ontario (2011–present), and was the Shadow Minister of Health (2015–2016). In the Harper cabinet she was Minister of Labour and the Status of Women (2013–2015)[34][35][57][58][59][60] She is an orthopaedic pediatric surgeon at SickKids Hospital and is an associate professor at the University of Toronto.[61]

Date campaign announced: April 6, 2016[62]
Campaign website: www.kellieworks.ca
Supporters
  • MPs:
  • Senators:
  • Provincial politicians:
  • Former MPs:
  • Other prominent individuals:
  • Organizations:
Other information

Potential candidates[edit]

Publicly expressed interest[edit]

Other prospective candidates[edit]

Declined[edit]

Opinion polling[edit]

The polls below were conducted before nominations for the leadership closed and therefore include potential candidates for the leadership race. Rona Ambrose, as interim leader, is ineligible to run for the permanent leadership unless there is a change to the party's constitution.

Conservative Party members[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Maxime
Bernier		 Michael
Chong		 Tony
Clement		 Jason
Kenney		 Kellie
Leitch		 Peter
MacKay		 Kevin
O'Leary		 Lisa
Raitt		 Other/
Undecided
Forum Research May 11, 2016 PDF 118 ± 3.0% 11% — — 9% 4% 16% 23% 2% Someone else 23%
Rona Ambrose 12%
Forum Research April 5, 2016 PDF 112 ± 3.0% 9% — — 7% 1% 20% 28% 2% Someone else 24%
Rona Ambrose 9%

Conservative Party supporters[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Maxime
Bernier		 Michael
Chong		 Tony
Clement		 Jason
Kenney		 Kellie
Leitch		 Peter
MacKay		 Kevin
O'Leary		 Lisa
Raitt		 Other/
Undecided
Probit Inc. June 9, 2016 HTML 2,212 ± 2.08 11% 3% 3% 17% 1% 27% 21% 5% Rona Ambrose (not offered) 4%
Doug Ford 3%
Michelle Rempel 3%
Other 3%
Forum Research May 11, 2016 PDF 420 ± 3.0% 6% — — 6% 3% 23% 27% 2% Someone else 17%
Rona Ambrose 16%
Mainstreet Research April 27, 2016 HTML 1,676 ± 2.4% 6% 3% 7% 6% 2% 16% 20% 1% Rona Ambrose 26%
Undecided 10%
Someone else 3%
8% 5% 8% 7% 4% 23% 22% 3% Undecided 16%
Someone else 4%
EKOS April 15, 2016 HTML 1,176 ± 2.9% 4% — — — 2% 23% 17% 5% Stephen Harper 28%
Someone else 17%
Don't know 5%
Forum Research April 5, 2016 PDF 408 ± 3.0% 5% — — 8% 1% 22% 24% 4% Someone else 19%
Rona Ambrose 17%
Abacus Data March 18, 2016 HTML 1,500 ± 2.6% 5% 5% 6% 12% 1% 36% 27% 8% —
Mainstreet Research January 15, 2016 HTML 4,937 ± 1.4% 4% — — 8% 3% 25% 23% 4% Undecided 29%
Someone else 3%
Abacus Data January 12, 2016 HTML 1,500 ± 2.6% 5% — 13% 19% 4% 42% — 13% Bernard Lord 5%
Abacus Data November 25, 2015 HTML 360 ± 2.6% 6% 3% — 12% 3% 35% — 8% Brad Wall 17%
Jean Charest 11%
Doug Ford 4%
Forum Research November 7, 2015 PDF 334 ± 3.0% — — 7% 16% 4% 32% — — John Baird 18%
Rona Ambrose 12%
Michelle Rempel 7%
Rob Nicholson 4%

All Canadians[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Maxime
Bernier		 Michael
Chong		 Tony
Clement		 Jason
Kenney		 Kellie
Leitch		 Peter
MacKay		 Kevin
O'Leary		 Lisa
Raitt		 Other/
Undecided
EKOS April 15, 2016 HTML 1,176 ± 2.9% 6% — — — 3% 20% 9% 4% Someone else 36%
Don't know 13%
Stephen Harper 11%
Forum Research April 5, 2016 PDF 1,455 ± 3.0% 9% — — 6% 2% 18% 14% 6% Someone else 35%
Rona Ambrose 10%
Abacus Data March 18, 2016 HTML 1,500 ± 2.6% 10% 6% 9% 8% 3% 33% 18% 12% —
Abacus Data November 25, 2015 HTML 360 ± 2.6% 8% 7% — 10% 4% 31% — 10% Jean Charest 15%
Brad Wall 9%
Doug Ford 8%
Forum Research November 7, 2015 PDF 334 ± 3.0% — — 7% 11% 9% 29% — — Rona Ambrose 14%
John Baird 14%
Michelle Rempel 11%
Rob Nicholson 6%

References[edit]

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  46. ^ Opposes bailout
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