Venezuelan parliamentary election, 2015

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Venezuelan parliamentary election, 2015
Venezuela
2010 ←
 6 December 2015 → 2020
All 167 seats of the National Assembly [1]
84 seats needed for a majority
  Diosdado Cabello 2013.jpg Chúo Torrealba (2014).jpg
Leader Diosdado Cabello Jesús Torrealba
Party PSUV MUD
Alliance GPP MUD
Leader since 2008 2014 [2]
Leader's seat Monagas none
Last election 96 seats, 48.2% 64 seats, 47.2%
Current seats 99 seats 63 seats
Seats needed Decrease 15 Increase 21
Incumbent President of the National Assembly

Diosdado Cabello
PSUV

Parliamentary elections will be held in Venezuela on 6 December 2015.[3] Members of the opposition have speculated that President Nicolás Maduro may suspend the elections, but Maduro has stated the elections will happen even under the most adverse circumstances.[4]

Background[edit]

Since the 1999 Constitutional Assembly elections, the National Assembly has been dominated by alliances supportive of President Hugo Chávez. In the 2005 parliamentary elections, most opposition parties decided to withdraw, resulting in all seats being won by the Fifth Republic Movement and other parties supportive of Chávez. For the 2010 elections, an alliance of opposition parties was formed by the Democratic Unity Roundtable to contest the elections, and managed to win 64 seats. The PSUV, which was an alliance formed by Chávez from the Fifth Republic Movement and a number of smaller parties, won 96 seats, maintaining their majority, but lost their two-thirds and three-fifths supermajority. Fatherland for All, a small left-wing party, won two seats.[5] After Chávez's death in 2013, his hand-picked successor Maduro was narrowly elected president, continuing Chávez' ideological influence.[6] The Democratic Unity Roundtable alliance is aiming to improve their result from last time and end the current PSUV government,[7] while Maduro has said he has faith in the voters giving the government a large majority.[4]

Protests[edit]

Main article: 2014–15 Venezuelan protests

In 2014, a series of protests and demonstrations began in Venezuela. The protests have been attributed to inflation, violence and shortages in Venezuela. The protests have been largely peaceful,[8] though some have escalated and resulted in violence from both protesters and government forces. The government has accused the protests of being motivated by 'fascists' opposition leaders, capitalism and foreign influence,[9] and has itself been accused of censorship, supporting groups called colectivos using violence against protesters and politically motivated arrests.[10]

Electoral system[edit]

Starting from 2015, the 167 members of the National Assembly are elected by a mixed majoritarian system; 113 members are elected by First-past-the-post voting in 87 constituencies. A total of 51 seats are elected by closed list proportional representation based on the 23 states and the Capital District. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method. The remaining three seats are reserved for indigenous peoples, and are elected by the community.[11]

The opposition coalition held primaries on 17 May in 33 of the 87 electoral districts, choosing candidates for 42 seats; 125 additional candidates are expected to be hand-picked by 'consensus' among party leaders,[12] though the rules were later changed to require 40% of opposition candidates to be women and barred some popular opposition candidates from running, a move that experts called unconstitutional.[13] The PSUV held primaries in all 87 electoral districts on 28 June with the Bolivarian government stating there was a participation of 3,162,400 voters,[14] though some observing the primaries noticed a large decrease of voters to less than 1 million participating, or about 10% of PSUV members.[13]

Conduct[edit]

Leading up to the elections, serious issues have been raised about its fairness and credibility.[15] On 10 October 2015, Brazil pulled out of a UNASUR electoral mission to observe the Venezuelan election over what it said a lack of guarantees by the socialist government and its veto of the choice to head the delegation.[16] In a statement on 10 November 2015, Secretary General of the Organization of American States Luis Almagro condemned Venezuela's electoral process, explaining that the ruling party, PSUV, has an unfair advantage with its ability to use public assets, media access, creating dubious voting sheets and by disqualifying opposition politicians, stating that "It's worrying that ... the difficulties only impact the opposition parties".[17]

Opinion polls[edit]

The blue line represents percentage that favor MUD.
The red line represents percentage that favor PSUV.
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 PSUV MUD Others/
Independent		 Undecided/
Don't know
IVAD[18][19] 29 September 2014 800 27.6% 45.2% - 27.2%
Consultores 21[19] 21 September - 2 October 2014 1000 33% 48% -
Datanálisis[20] October 2014 1293 21.0% 38.9% 12.9% 17.5%
Datanálisis[20] November 2014 1300 18.8% 39.8% 15.5% 17.5%
VARIANZAS[21][22] 8-23 December 2014 1200 30.3% 43.9% 4.9% [note 1] 20.9 [note 2]
Datanálisis[20] January 2015 1000 17.3% 45.9% 13.8% 17.4%
Keller y Asociados[23] January 2015 1200 44% 56% - -
Datanálisis[24] February 2015  ? 22.5% 59.6% 17.9% -
ICS[25] 10-20 February 2015 1300 43.6% 31.6% - 24.8%
DatinCorp[26] 8 February 2015 1200 23.83% 47.83% - 17%[note 3]
Datanálisis[20][27] March 2015 1000 19.0% 42,6% 8.8% 21.3%
Keller y Asociados[28] 26 February - 13 March 2015 1200 31% 42% 11% 16%
Datanálisis[20] April 2015 1000 25.0% 45.8% 6.5% 16.5%
VARIANZAS[29] 19 March - 2 April 2015 1200 33.7% 46.1% 7.8% 12.5%
UCAB/Delphos[30] 10 - 25 April 2015 1200 15.5% 39.2% - 45.7% [note 4]
Hercón[31] 1 - 15 May 2015 1200 28% 52% - 19.8% [note 5]
DatinCorp[32] May 2015 1200 18% 48% 21% 14%[note 6]
Datanálisis[33] 18-30 May 2015 1000 21.3% 40.1% 10.0% 28.6%
IVAD[34] 28 May - 11 June 2015 1200 20.8% 32.6% 27.6 19% [note 7]
Datanálisis[35] June 2015  ? 27% 61% 12% -
Hercón[36] 20 - 27 June 2015 2000 28.1% 61.1% - 10.5%
ICS[37] 6-27 July 2015 8000
(500 per state)		 45.3% 37.6% - 17.1%
Datanálisis[20][38] 10 - 23 July 2015 999 19.2% 42.2% 11.8% 17.5%
DatinCorp[39] July 2015 1197 20% 42% 14% 23% [note 8]
IVAD[40] 08 - 16 August 2015 1200 19.3% 57.9% - 22.8%
Keller y Asociados[41] 19 August - 5 September 2015 1200 27% 53% 11% 9%
Datanálisis[42] September 2015 - 21% 44% 35% -
DatinCorp[43] September 2015 - 20% 53% -
Delphos September 2015 - 20% 50% 20% 10%
Venebarómetro/IVAD[44] 5 - 15 September 2015 1200 17.1% 38.3% 28.0% 16.7%
Hercon[45] 13 - 16 September 2015 1000 22.3% 60.1% 13.0% 4.6%
Consultores 21[46] 4 - 20 September 2015 - 35.8% 57.8% 3.7% -
Hercon[47] 5 - 20 September 2015 1200 30.3% 62.3% - 7.3%
Consultores 21[48] October 2015 - 34% 55% -
Datanálisis[49] October 2015 - 28.2% 63.2% -
DatinCorp[50] October 2015 - 20% 47% -
DatinCorp[51] October 2015 - 39% 56% -
IVAD[52] October 2015 - 22.1% 41.8% [note 9]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Neither
  2. ^ 11.2% Don't know, 7.4% It depends, 2.3 % Won't vote
  3. ^ No vote (no votaría)
  4. ^ 20.7% Don't know, 8.2% Won't vote, 16.4% Neither
  5. ^ 11.2% Don't know, 14.2% Won't vote
  6. ^ No vote (no votaría)
  7. ^ "The rest declares themselves undecided."
  8. ^ 13% "Wouldn't Vote, 10% "Undecided"
  9. ^ Neither

References[edit]

  1. ^ "CNE dio a conocer distribución de diputados a elegir en todo el país". El Universal. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 9 May 2015. 
  2. ^ "Jesús "Chuo" Torrealba aceptó la secretaría ejecutiva de la MUD". El Mundo. 24 September 2014. Retrieved 9 May 2015. 
  3. ^ "Venezuela to hold parliamentary election on Dec. 6". Reuters. 22 June 2015. Retrieved 22 June 2015. 
  4. ^ a b "Maduro rejects speculation he'll suspend Venezuela elections - Salon.com". AP. 5 March 2015. Retrieved 9 April 2015. 
  5. ^ "Divulgación Elecciones Parlamentarias - 26 de Septiembre de 2010" (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 April 2015. 
  6. ^ "Nicolas Maduro sworn in as new Venezuelan president". BBC News. 19 April 2013. Retrieved 9 April 2015. 
  7. ^ Cawthorne, Andrew; Pons, Corina (6 October 2014). "Venezuelan opposition head seeks 2015 vote gains, and 'Caribbean Norway'". Reuters. Retrieved 9 April 2015. 
  8. ^ "Protestas aumentan 278% en primer semestre 2014" (in Spanish). La Patilla. 17 July 2014. Retrieved 9 April 2015. 
  9. ^ Milne, Seumas. "Venezuela protests are sign that US wants our oil, says Nicolás Maduro". The Guardian. Retrieved 9 April 2015. 
  10. ^ "Venezuela: UN rights chief calls for immediate release of opposition leader, politicians". United Nations. Retrieved 9 April 2015. 
  11. ^ "113 diputados serán electos por voto nominal y 51 por voto lista en parlamentarias". Agencia Venezolana de Noticias. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 9 May 2015. 
  12. ^ Ulmer, Alexandra (17 May 2015). "Venezuela opposition holds primaries for high-stakes parliament vote". Reuters. Retrieved 26 May 2015. 
  13. ^ a b María Delgado, Antonio (21 July 2015). "Chavismo pierde participación electoral y opta por inhabilitar a la oposición". El Nuevo Herald. Retrieved 31 July 2015. 
  14. ^ http://www.telesurtv.net/news/Masiva-movilizacion-en-primarias-del-PSUV-Mas-de-3-millones-de-votos-20150628-0052.html
  15. ^ "Venezuela’s regime is in a scared and ugly mood". The Economist. 14 November 2015. Retrieved 14 November 2015. 
  16. ^ Brazil Pulls out of Electoral Mission to Venezuela. ABC News. Retrieved 2015-10-20.
  17. ^ Chinea, Eyanir; Ellsworth, Brian; Gupta, Girish; Craft, Diane (10 November 2015). "OAS chief slams Venezuela over election observation". Reuters. Retrieved 14 November 2015. 
  18. ^ "Gestión de Gobierno y Coyuntura Política Estudio Nacional" (pdf) (in Spanish). IVAD. 29 September 2014. Retrieved 14 May 2015. 
  19. ^ a b Martínez, Eugenio G. (28 October 2014). "Legislativas 2015: ¿por qué puede ganar la unidad y perder la oposición?; por Eugenio Martínez « Prodavinci" (in Spanish). Prodavinci. Retrieved 14 May 2015. 
  20. ^ a b c d e f "Datanálisis: Omnibus Julio Agosto 2015". Datanalisis. Retrieved 16 September 2015. 
  21. ^ "varianzas: Presentación Encuesta Nacional Diciembre 2014" (in Spanish). 11 January 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2015. 
  22. ^ "VARIANZAS: POPULARIDAD DE MADURO SE UBICA EN 13,5% | Barómetro Político" (in Spanish). Barómetro Político. 15 April 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2015. 
  23. ^ Vásquez, Alex (11 January 2015). "Crisis económica pone a prueba liderazgos de la MUD y del PSUV" (in Spanish). El Nacional. Retrieved 14 May 2015. 
  24. ^ (in Spanish) http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/internacional/oposicion-venezolana-enfrenta-reto-contencion-3959837. Retrieved 29 August 2015.  Missing or empty |title= (help)
  25. ^ "Enquesta - ICS Febrero 2015" (pdf) (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 May 2015. 
  26. ^ RODRÍGUEZ T., CARMEN M. (16 March 2015). "DatinCorp: 70% califica entre mala y pésima la situación del país - Nacional y Política" (in Spanish). El Universal. Retrieved 14 May 2015. 
  27. ^ "Datanálisis: Oposición mantiene ventaja de 20% de cara a las parlamentarias - Nacional y Política" (in Spanish). El Universal. 21 April 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2015. 
  28. ^ "KELLER1er Trimestre 2015". Scribd (in Spanish). La Patilla. Retrieved 14 May 2015. 
  29. ^ "varianzas: Encuesta Nacional Marzo-Abril 2015" (in Spanish). 14 April 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2015. 
  30. ^ "Percepciones ciudadanas del Sistema Electoral Venezolano" (PDF) (in Spanish). 20 May 2015. Retrieved 22 May 2015. 
  31. ^ "Marcos Hernández López: Intención voto parlamentarias 2015" (in Spanish). 20 May 2015. Retrieved 20 May 2015. 
  32. ^ (in Spanish) http://barometropolitico.com/2015/06/08/sisepuede-la-oposicion-supera-al-chavismo-por-30-puntos-3/. Retrieved 29 August 2015.  Missing or empty |title= (help)
  33. ^ "Aprobación de presidente venezolano Maduro cae a 25,8 pct en mayo: sondeo" (in Spanish). Reuters América Latina. 17 June 2015. Retrieved 17 June 2015. 
  34. ^ "Chavismo ocupa el tercer lugar de preferencias" (in Spanish). 28 July 2015. Retrieved 28 July 2015. 
  35. ^ (in Spanish) http://www.notitarde.com/Valencia/Crisis-socioeconomica-restara-curules-a-partidos-oficialistas-/2015/06/06/527766. Retrieved 29 August 2015.  Missing or empty |title= (help)
  36. ^ "Si las elecciones parlamentarias fueran hoy el 70,7% votaría por la oposición (encuesta Hercon)" (in Spanish). 28 June 2015. Retrieved 28 June 2015. 
  37. ^ (in Spanish) http://www.redpres.com/t18785-mayoria-de-venezolanos-confian-que-maduro-mejorara-economia-del-pais-segun-encuesta-ics?highlight=encuesta. Retrieved 29 August 2015.  Missing or empty |title= (help)
  38. ^ "Rechazo a gestión de Nicolás aumenta al 75,7%, según Datanálisis" (in Spanish). 13 August 2015. Retrieved 13 August 2015. 
  39. ^ "TRACKING DE COYUNTURA" (PDF) (in Spanish). 7 September 2015. Retrieved 7 September 2015. 
  40. ^ "El 83,6% de los venezolanos no confía en el gobierno de Maduro (encuesta IVAD)" (in Spanish). 22 August 2015. Retrieved 23 August 2015. 
  41. ^ "Maduro ha llevado al oficialismo a ser una clara minoría (encuesta Keller)". La Patilla. Retrieved 27 September 2015. 
  42. ^ "Datanálisis: Chavismo y oposición necesitan a independientes para ganar el 6D". Globovision. 23 September 2015. Retrieved 21 October 2015. 
  43. ^ "Maduro provoca que el chavismo se hunda en los sondeos de Venezuela". ABC. 9 September 2015. Retrieved 27 October 2015. 
  44. ^ "El 86,8% quiere un cambio en la conducción del país (encuesta Venebarómetro)" (in Spanish). 11 October. Retrieved 11 October 2015.  Check date values in: |date= (help)
  45. ^ "Sólo el 20,1% de los venezolanos cree que López es culpable (encuesta flash Hercon)" (in Spanish). 22 August 2015. Retrieved 23 August 2015. 
  46. ^ G. Martínez, Eugenio (14 October 2015). "Venezuela: la encuesta de Consultores 21 y los datos sobre el 6D; por Eugenio Martínez". Prodavinci. Retrieved 21 October 2015. 
  47. ^ "En 82,7 % se ubica rechazo a gestión de Maduro: 51,2 % entre oficialistas (encuesta Hercon)" (in Spanish). 1 October. Retrieved 1 October 2015.  Check date values in: |date= (help)
  48. ^ "Primero Justicia dice que encuestas anuncian derrota de Maduro". El Tiempo. 1 November 2015. Retrieved 7 November 2015. 
  49. ^ "Capriles: “No hay forma que el chavismo gane las legislativas”". Radio Programas del Perú. 14 November 2015. Retrieved 14 November 2015. 
  50. ^ "FRANCISCO M. PÉREZ". El Carabobeño. 20 October 2015. Retrieved 7 November 2015.  Text " En Secreto" ignored (help)
  51. ^ Vinogradoff, Ludmila (29 October 2015). "Maduro se derrumba con el 82% de rechazo de los venezolanos en las encuestas". ABC. Retrieved 7 November 2015. 
  52. ^ Azócar, Gustavo (21 October 2015). "http://www.analitica.com/opinion/estan-blindadas-las-elecciones-parlamentarias-del-6d/". Analítica. Retrieved 7 November 2015. 
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