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Ukraine–NATO relations

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Ukraine-NATO relations
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NATO member countries (blue), countries in the process of accession to NATO (violet) and the Russia-led CSTO (red).

Relations between Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) started in 1992.[1] Ukraine applied to begin a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) in 2008.[2][3] Plans for NATO membership were shelved by Ukraine following the 2010 presidential election in which Viktor Yanukovych, who preferred to keep the country non-aligned, was elected President.[4][5] Amid the Euromaidan unrest, Yanukovych fled Ukraine in February 2014.[6] The interim Yatseniuk Government which came to power initially said, with reference to the country's non-aligned status, that it had no plans to join NATO.[7] However, following the Russian military invasion in Ukraine and parliamentary elections in October 2014, the new government made joining NATO a priority.[8] On 21 February 2019, the Constitution of Ukraine was amended, the norms on the strategic course of Ukraine for membership in the European Union and NATO are enshrined in the preamble of the Basic Law, three articles and transitional provisions.[9][10]

At the June 2021 Brussels Summit, NATO leaders reiterated the decision taken at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine would become a member of the Alliance with the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as an integral part of the process and Ukraine's right to determine its future and foreign policy, of course without outside interference.[11] NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also stressed that Russia will not be able to veto Ukraine's accession to NATO "as we will not return to the era of spheres of interest, when large countries decide what smaller ones should do."[12]

According to polls conducted between 2005 and 2013, Ukrainian public support of NATO membership remained low.[13][14][15][16][17][18][19] However, since the Russo-Ukrainian War and Annexation of Crimea, public support for Ukrainian membership in NATO has risen greatly. Since June 2014, polls showed that about 50% of those asked supported Ukrainian NATO membership.[20][21][22][23] Some 69% of Ukrainians want to join NATO, according to a June 2017 poll by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, compared to 28% support in 2012 when Yanukovych was in power.[24]

History of relations

Presidency of Leonid Kravchuk (1991–1994)

Relations between Ukraine and NATO were formally established in 1992, when Ukraine joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council after regaining its independence, later renamed the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council.[25] On 22 and 23 February 1992, NATO Secretary General M. Werner paid an official visit to Kyiv, and on 8 July 1992, President Kravchuk visited NATO Headquarters. in Brussels. An important event in the development of relations between Ukraine and NATO was the opening in September 1992 of the Embassy of Ukraine in Brussels, which was a link in contacts between Ukraine and NATO.

A few years later, in February 1994, Ukraine was the first post-Soviet country to conclude a framework agreement with NATO in the framework of the Partnership for Peace initiative, supporting the initiative of Central and Eastern European countries to join NATO.[26][25][27][1]

Presidency of Leonid Kuchma (1994–2005)

US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma. Partenit, Autonomous Republic of Crimea, August 13, 2004

In the summer of 1995 NATO stepped up to help to mitigate consequences of the Kharkiv Drinking Water Disaster. This was the first cooperation between NATO and Ukraine.[28] On May 7, 1997 the first-ever official NATO Information and Documentation Center opened in Kyiv, aimed to foster transparency about the alliance.[29] A Ukrainian public opinion poll of May 6 showed 37% in favor of joining NATO with 28% opposed and 34% undecided.[30] On July 9, 1997, a NATO-Ukraine Commission was established.[31] In 2002 relations with the government of the United States and other NATO countries deteriorated after one of the recordings made during the Cassette Scandal revealed an alleged transfer of a sophisticated Ukrainian defense system to Saddam Hussein's Iraq.[27] At the NATO enlargement summit in November 2002, the NATO–Ukraine commission adopted a Ukraine–NATO Action Plan. President Kuchma's declaration that Ukraine wanted to join NATO (also in 2002) and the sending of Ukrainian troops to Iraq in 2003[27] could not mend relations between Kuchma and NATO.[27] Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are working with NATO in Iraq.[32]

On April 6, 2004, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law on the free access of NATO forces to the territory of Ukraine.

On June 15, 2004, in the second edition of the Military Doctrine of Ukraine, approved by the decree of Leonid Kuchma, a provision appeared on the implementation by Ukraine of a policy of Euro-Atlantic integration, the ultimate goal of which was to join NATO. However, already on July 15, 2004, following a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO commission, President Kuchma issued a decree stating that joining NATO was no longer the country's goal - only "a significant deepening of relations with NATO and the European Union as guarantors of security and stability in Europe".[33]

Presidency of Viktor Yushchenko (2005–2010)

US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and US Ambassador to NATO Victoria Nuland at the NATO–Ukraine consultations in Vilnius, Lithuania, on October 24, 2005

After the Orange Revolution in 2004 Kuchma was replaced by President Viktor Yushchenko who is a keen supporter of Ukraine's NATO membership.[34] In January 2008 the second Yulia Tymoshenko cabinet's proposal for Ukraine to join NATO's Membership Action Plan was met with opposition. A petition of over 2 million signatures has called for a referendum on Ukraine's membership proposal to join NATO. The opposition has called for a national referendum to be held on any steps towards further involvement with NATO. In February 2008 57.8% of Ukrainians supported the idea of a national referendum on joining NATO, against 38.6% in February 2007.[35]

On April 21, 2005, in Vilnius, as part of an informal meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the NATO countries, a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Commission was held, which opened a new stage in Ukraine's relations with the alliance - "intensive dialogue", which was intended to be the first step towards Ukraine's entry into NATO.

During President Viktor Yushchenko's first official visit to the United States, President George W. Bush declared: "I am a supporter of the idea of Ukraine's membership in NATO." In a joint official statement by the Presidents of Ukraine and the United States, it was said that Washington supports the proposal to start an intensive dialogue on Ukraine's accession to the NATO Membership Action Plan.

In April 2005, Viktor Yushchenko returned to Ukraine's military doctrine the mention of Ukraine's strategic goal - "full membership in NATO and the European Union." The new text read as follows: "Based on the fact that NATO and the EU are the guarantors of security and stability in Europe, Ukraine is preparing for full membership in these organizations." As in the previous version, the task of "deeply reforming the defense sphere of the state in accordance with European standards" was called "one of the most important priorities of domestic and foreign policy."

On January 20, 2006 in Budapest, following a meeting of defense ministers of Central European countries - NATO members - Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia (which was attended by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anatolii Hrytsenko) - it was announced that these states were ready to support Ukraine's entry into NATO. As stated, a necessary condition for this should be the support of this step by the Ukrainian society and the achievement of internal stability in Ukraine.

On April 27, 2006, at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, the representative of the NATO Secretary General, James Appathurai, stated that all members of the alliance support the speedy integration of Ukraine into NATO. Russia, for its part, expressed concern about this development. As the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Mikhail Kamynin stated, “de facto, we will talk about a serious military-political shift affecting the interests of Russia, which will require significant funds for the corresponding reorientation of military potentials, the reorganization of the system of military-industrial relations. Arrangements in the field of arms control may be affected.”

In August-September 2006, after the Party of Regions received the largest number of votes in the next parliamentary elections and the government was headed by Viktor Yushchenko's political rival Viktor Yanukovych, there was a turn in Ukraine's foreign policy. By the end of 2006, not a single representative of the pro-presidential Our Ukraine bloc remained in the government. Viktor Yanukovych's foreign policy statements contradicted Yushchenko's course.

Applying for Ukraine to join the NATO Membership Action Plan

In January 2008, US Senator Richard Lugar said: "Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Parliamentary Chairman Arsenii Yatseniuk have signed the statement calling for consideration on Ukraine's entry into the NATO membership action plan at the Bucharest summit."[36]

The Ukrainian parliament headed by Arsenii Yatseniuk was unable to hold its regular parliamentary session following the decision of the Parliamentary Opposition to prevent the parliament from functioning in a protest against joining NATO. The parliament was blocked from January 25, 2008[37] till March 4, 2008 (on 29 February 2008 faction leaders agreed on a protocol of mutual understanding).[38]

US President George W. Bush and both nominees for President of the United States in the 2008 election, U.S. senator Barack Obama and U.S. senator John McCain, did offer backing to Ukraine's membership of NATO.[39][40][41] Russian reactions were negative. In April 2008, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke out against Ukraine's membership in NATO.[42][43]

Bucharest summit: 2008–2009

Main article: 2008 Bucharest summit

At the NATO summit in Bucharest in April 2008, NATO decided it would not yet offer membership to Georgia and Ukraine; nevertheless, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that Georgia and Ukraine would eventually become members.[44] Resistance was reportedly met from France and Germany.[45]

In November 2008, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel, Prime-Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former Ukrainian minister of defence Anatolii Hrytsenko doubted Ukraine would be granted membership of MAP in December 2008.[46] In a Times of London interview in late November, President Yushchenko stated : "Ukraine has done everything it had to do. We are devoted to this pace. Everything else is an issue of political will of those allies who represent NATO."[47] Although NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary-General Aurelia Bouchez[nb 1] and NATO's Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer[nb 2] still supported Ukraine's NATO bid at the time the Bush administration seemed not to push for Georgian and Ukrainian membership of MAP late November 2008.[nb 3] President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev responded that "reason has prevailed".[51] On December 3, 2008 NATO decided it will work out an Annual National Programme of providing assistance to Ukraine to implement reforms required to accede the alliance without referring to MAP.[52]

At the NATO-Ukraine consultations at the level of Defense Ministers held at the NATO headquarters in Brussels in November 2009, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen praised Ukraine's first Annual National Program, which outlined the steps it intended to take to accelerate internal reform and alignment with Euro-Atlantic standards, as an important step on Ukraine's path to becoming a member of the Alliance.[53]

Presidency of Viktor Yanukovych (2010–2014)

Russo-Ukrainian War
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Candidate during the 2010 presidential election and Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych stated during 2010 presidential election-campaign that the current level of Ukraine's cooperation with NATO was sufficient and that the question of the country's accession to the alliance was therefore not urgent.[54][55]

Following the election, on 14 February 2010, the newly elected President Viktor Yanukovych said that Ukraine's relations with NATO were currently "well-defined", and that there was "no question of Ukraine joining NATO". He said the issue of Ukrainian membership of NATO might "emerge at some point, but we will not see it in the immediate future."[5]

On 1 March 2010, during his visit to Brussels, Yanukovych said that there would be no change to Ukraine's status as a member of the alliance's outreach program.[56] He later reiterated during a trip to Moscow that Ukraine would remain a "European, non-aligned state."[57]

As of May 2010, NATO and Ukraine continued to cooperate in the frame of the Annual National Program,[58] including joint exercises.[59] According to Ukraine the continuation of Ukraine-NATO cooperation does not exclude the development of a strategic partnership with Russia.[60]

On 27 May 2010, Yanukovych stated that he considered Ukraine's relations with NATO as a partnership, "And Ukraine can't live without this [partnership], because Ukraine is a large country".[61]

On 3 June 2010, the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill proposed by the President that excluded the goal of "integration into Euro-Atlantic security and NATO membership" from the country's national security strategy.[62] The law precluded Ukraine's membership of any military bloc, but allowed for co-operation with alliances such as NATO.[63] "European integration" is still part of Ukraine's national security strategy.[62]

On 24 June 2010, the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers approved an action plan to implement an annual national program of cooperation with NATO in 2010.[64] This included:[64]

  • Involvement of Ukrainian aviation and transport material in the transportation of cargo and personnel of the armed forces of NATO's member states and partners participating in NATO-led peacekeeping missions and operations
  • The continuation of Ukraine's participation in a peacekeeping operation in Kosovo
  • Possible reinforcing of Ukraine's peacekeeping contingents in Afghanistan and Iraq
  • Ukraine's participation in a number of international events organized by NATO
  • Training of Ukrainian troops in the structures of NATO members

Ukraine and NATO continued to hold joint seminars and joint tactical and strategical exercises and operations during Yanukovych Presidency.[65]

Presidency of Petro Poroshenko (2014–2019)

Yanukovych fled Ukraine amid the Euromaidan uprising in February 2014.[6] As a result of this revolution, the interim Yatseniuk Government came to power in Ukraine.[66][67] The Yatseniuk Government initially stated it did not have the intention of making Ukraine a member of NATO.[7]

Petro Poroshenko with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Vice President of the United States Joe Biden, February 2015

NATO officials vowed support for Ukraine and worked to downplay tensions between the bloc and Russia, which refused to recognize the impeachment of Yanukovych or the Yatseniuk Government.[68] In late February 2014, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Secretary General of NATO, reaffirmed that NATO membership is still an option for Ukraine.[69]

On 29 August 2014, following reports that the Russian military was operating within Ukraine, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arsenii Yatseniuk announced that he would ask the Ukrainian parliament to put Ukraine on a path towards NATO membership.[70] The government has also signaled that it hopes for major non-NATO ally status with the United States, NATO's largest military power and contributor.[71] As part of these efforts, and to rule out future Ukrainian membership in the Eurasian Economic Union and other Russian-led supranational entities, Yatseniuk also submitted a draft law to repeal Ukraine's non-bloc status previously instituted by Yanukovych.[72] Following parliamentary elections in October 2014, the new government made joining NATO a priority.[8]

Soldiers of the U.S. Army 6th Squadron, 8th Cavalry Regiment, 2nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division train Ukrainian Soldiers on trigger squeeze during a 2016 drill.

On 23 December 2014, the Ukrainian parliament renounced Ukraine's non-aligned status, a step harshly condemned by Russia.[6][73] The new law states that Ukraine's previous non-aligned status "proved to be ineffective in guaranteeing Ukraine's security and protecting the country from external aggression and pressure" and also aims to deepen Ukrainian cooperation with NATO "in order to achieve the criteria which are required for membership in the alliance".[74] On 29 December 2014, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (elected president on 25 May 2014)[75][76][77][78][79][80] vowed to hold a referendum on joining NATO.[81]

A number of military exercises were planned between NATO members and Ukraine in 2015.[82] Among them were Operation Fearless Guardian (total 2,200 participants, including 1,000 U.S. military). Initial personnel and equipment of the 173rd Airborne Brigade arrived in Yavoriv, Lviv Oblast, on 10 April 2015. Fearless Guardian would train Ukraine's newly formed National Guard under the Congress-approved Global Contingency Security Fund. Under the program, the United States were to train three battalions of Ukrainian troops over a six-month period beginning in April 2015,[83] Others exercises include Exercise Sea Breeze 2015 (total 2,500 personnel of which 1,000 US military and 500 military from NATO or "Partnership for Peace" countries), "Saber Guardian/Rapid Trident – 2015" (total 2,100 members, including 500 US military and 600 NATO/PfP personnel), as well as the Ukrainian-Polish air exercise "Safe Skies – 2015" (total 350 participants, including 100 Polish military) and military police "Law and Order – 2015" (total 100 participants, 50 of which are Polish military).[citation needed]

In September 2015, NATO launched five trust funds for €5.4 million for the Ukrainian army. €2 million are planned to be sent for the modernization of communication systems, €1.2 million – to reform the logistic and standardization systems, €845 thousand – for physical rehabilitation and prostheses, €815 thousand for cyber defense, and €410 thousand for retraining and resettlement.[citation needed]

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Petro Poroshenko, 10 July 2017

In March 2016, President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker stated that it would take at least 20–25 years for Ukraine to join the EU and NATO.[84] On 8 June 2017, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada passed a law making integration with NATO a foreign policy priority.[85] In July 2017 Poroshenko announced that he would seek the opening of negotiations on a Membership Action Plan with NATO.[86] In that same month President Poroshenko began proposing a 'patronage system', tying individual regions with European States.[87]

On the 10th of March 2018, NATO added Ukraine in the list of NATO aspiring members (others including Bosnia and Herzegovina and Georgia). Several months later, in late June, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada passed a National Security bill: the bill defines the principles of state policy on national security and defence as well as focusing on Ukraine's integration into the European security, economic and legal system; improvement in mutual relations with other states and eventual membership in EU and NATO.

On September 20, 2018, the Ukrainian parliament approved amendments to the constitution that would make the accession of the country to NATO and the EU a central goal and the main foreign policy objective.[88]

On 7 February 2019, the Ukrainian parliament voted with a majority of 334 out of 385 to change the Ukrainian constitution in order to help Ukraine to join NATO and the European Union.[89] After the vote, Ukrainian president Poroshenko declared: "This is the day when the movement of Ukraine to the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance will be consolidated in the Constitution as a foreign political landmark."[90]

Presidency of Volodymyr Zelensky (from 2019)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg in June 2019

On 12 June 2020, Ukraine joined NATO's enhanced opportunity partner interoperability program.[nb 4][91] According to an official NATO statement, the new status "does not prejudge any decisions on NATO membership."[91]

On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO."[92][93][94] On October 8, 2020, during a meeting with Prime Minister Boris Johnson in London, President Zelensky stated that Ukraine needs a NATO Membership Action Plan, as NATO membership will contribute to Ukraine's security and defense.[95]

On December 1, 2020, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Andrii Taran stated that Ukraine clearly outlines its ambitions to obtain the NATO Membership Action Plan and hopes for comprehensive political and military support for such a decision at the next Alliance Summit in 2021. Addressing the ambassadors and military attaches of NATO member states, as well as representatives of the NATO office in Ukraine, they were urged to inform their capitals that Ukraine would hope for their full politico-military support in reaching such a decision at the next NATO Summit in 2021. This should be a practical step and a demonstration of commitment to the 2008 Bucharest Summit.[96]

At the end of November 2020, it became known that the NATO Summit in 2021 will consider the issue of returning to "open door policy", including the issue of providing Georgia with a Membership Action Plan (MAP). On February 9, 2021, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, stated that he hoped that Ukraine would be able to receive an action plan for NATO membership at the same time as Georgia.[97] In response, Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed during Prime Minister Shmyhal's visit to Brussels that Ukraine is a candidate for NATO membership.[98]

Zelensky and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on 31 August 2021

On April 7, 2021, after the start of the build-up of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told a press conference with his Spanish counterpart Arancha González Laya that Lithuania intends to ask its NATO allies to provide Ukraine with a Membership Action Plan (MAP):

In the near future, we should again turn to our colleagues with a letter to consider the possibility of granting MAP to Ukraine. I am convinced, and we have already begun to discuss this issue with our colleagues from the Baltic states, NATO could repeat its proposal to provide Ukraine with a membership plan. This step will become a "strong signal for Russia", in particular, that Ukraine has chosen the transatlantic direction for itself, is appreciated and has support in the NATO countries. – emphasized Landsbergis.

For her part, the Spanish Foreign Minister, despite the fact that Ukraine is not a member of the Alliance, said that the Allies' relations with it are already "fruitful, useful and are a symbol of NATO's vision of a peaceful neighborhood." She also added that the issue of Ukraine should be discussed at the summit of the North Atlantic Alliance, which is scheduled for June this year.[99]

Following in the footsteps of his Lithuanian counterpart, Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs said that NATO should provide Ukraine with a membership action plan:[100]

We are watching closely as Russia draws troops to Ukraine's borders. It is not clear at this time what this is: a show of force or real aggression. But there is every reason to worry ... Ukraine has been trying to join NATO for 15 years by obtaining an Membership Action Plan. Apparently, it is time to provide this Plan to Ukraine. This will be at least a signal from us [NATO] that Ukrainians will not be left without support. I will definitely support this decision...

Zelensky and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

On April 10, 2021, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Andrii Taran stated that the top priority of the Ukrainian political leadership is to obtain the Action Plan for Membership (MAP) in the North Atlantic Alliance in 2021. According to the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the most convincing and effective mechanism for communicating the position of the international community to Moscow is "accelerating the implementation of the decision of the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit on our membership in the Alliance."[101] Also receiving the MAP for Ukraine was supported by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a joint declaration of the Ninth High-Level Strategic Council between Ukraine and the Republic of Turkey.[102]

At a briefing in Kyiv in May 2021, Democrat Senator Chris Murphy said at a briefing in Kyiv following a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that granting Ukraine a MAP would be the next logical step toward NATO membership. He stressed that Ukraine has already made several reforms necessary to become a member of NATO, as well as to carry out additional reforms.[103] He also noted that if Ukraine and Georgia had received the MAP in 2008, there would have been no conflict with Russia at all:[104]

I understand NATO's concern about the prospect of integrating with a country in conflict. But, frankly, if Ukraine and Georgia had received the MAP in 2008, I don't think there would have been a conflict at all.

Separately, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky called one of the potential threats that could strengthen Russia's position in Europe the failure to give Ukraine a clear signal and specific deadlines for obtaining an Action Plan for NATO membership.[105]

At the June 2021 Brussels Summit, NATO leaders reiterated the decision taken at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine would become a member of the Alliance with the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as an integral part of the process and Ukraine's right to determine its own future and foreign policy course without outside interference.[11] NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also stressed that Russia will not be able to veto Ukraine's accession to NATO, as we will not return to the era of spheres of interest, when large countries decide what smaller ones should do:[12]

Each country chooses its own path, and this also applies to joining NATO. It is up to Ukraine and the 30 NATO members to decide whether it aspires to be a member of the Alliance. Russia has no say in whether Ukraine should be a member of the Alliance. They cannot veto the decisions of their neighbors. We will not return to the era of spheres of interest, when large countries decide what to do with smaller ones.

On 28 June 2021, Ukraine and NATO forces launched joint naval drills in the Black Sea codenamed Sea Breeze 2021. Russia had condemned the drills, with the Russian Defence Ministry saying it would closely monitor them.[106]

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Brussels, 16 December 2021

On January 11, 2022, it became known that a group of Republican congressmen intended to introduce a bill declaring Ukraine a NATO-plus country and initiating a review of the advisability of declaring Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. The authors of the bill argue that recognizing Ukraine as a "NATO+ country" will make it possible to quickly make decisions on the provision and sale of American defense goods and services to Ukraine. In particular, according to Mike Rogers, co-author of the bill, this rule concerns the provision of anti-ship and air defense systems. In addition, this bill proposes to create a mechanism for the rapid imposition of sanctions against Nord Stream 2 in the event of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. The authors of the bill are convinced that in this way they will forever block its commissioning. Also, if adopted, the United States is obliged to consider and vote on whether to grant Russia the status of a "country-sponsor of international terrorism."[107]

On January 14, 2022, Andrii Yermak, Chairman of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that the Ukrainian authorities hope to hear specific conditions for joining the North Atlantic Alliance:

Ukraine has shown to its principles and positions that we are fully prepared and able to be a member of NATO. This means that at the Madrid summit this year we hope to see and hear very specific conditions and information about this, because today, especially today, I would like to repeat that now this is a matter of life and death for our country.

— Andrii Yermak

The head of the President's Office also praised the preparation of sanctions in the event of a Russian invasion, but warned that such an invasion "would be a great tragedy."

On Wednesday, February 16 2022, NATO's commanders have been instructed by Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to work out the details of a battlegroup deployment to the alliance's southeastern flank because there are no signs of a Russian de-escalation yet.[108]

Popular opinion in Ukraine

Popular support in Ukraine for NATO membership since 2002
2014–2019
Date Opinion Poll agency
For Against
March 2014 44% 47% GfK[121]
April 2014 36% 48% Razumkov Centre[122]
May 2014 37% 42% Razumkov Centre[123]
May 2014 41% 40% Democratic Initiatives Foundation & Razumkov Centre[124]
June 2014 41% 40% Razumkov Centre[125]
June 2014 47% 36% Gorshenin Institute[126]
July 2014 44% 34% RATING[127]
October 2014 53% 34% Gorshenin Institute[20]
November 2014 51% 25% RATING[21]
March 2015 43.3% 33.4% Kyiv International Institute of Sociology[128]
June 2015 53% 32% Pew Research Center[129]
July 2015 63.9% 28.5% Democratic Initiatives Foundation & Razumkov Centre[130]
December 2015 75% 11% Democratic Initiatives Foundation[131]
January 2016 47% 31% RATING[22]
March 2016 45% 30% RATING[23]
June 2016 39% 32% RATING[132]
September 2016 39% 31% Kyiv International Institute of Sociology[133]
December 2016 71% 23% Democratic Initiatives Foundation & Razumkov Centre[134]
June 2019 53% 29% RATING[135]
2020–2022
Date Opinion Poll agency
For Against
December 2021 59% 28% Kyiv International Institute of Sociology[136]
January 2022 64% 17% Ukrainian Institute of the Future[137]

Western Ukraine has always been significantly more pro-NATO than the rest of the country.[138][115][139]

Eastern Ukraine is far more anti-NATO and pro-Russia than the rest of Ukraine.[139][140]

A Gallup poll conducted in October 2008 showed that 43% of Ukrainians associated NATO as a threat to their country, while only 15% associated it with protection.[141] A November 2009 poll by Ukrainian Project System relieved 40.1% of Ukrainians polled said the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was the best global security group for Ukraine to be a part of and 33.9% of the respondents supported Ukraine's full membership in CSTO; more than 36% of the respondents of the poll said that Ukraine should remain neutral and only 12.5% supported Ukraine's accession to NATO.[142] A 2009 Gallup poll showed that 40% of Ukrainian adults associate NATO with "Threat" and 17% with "Protection".[19] According to a poll by Razumkov Center in March 2011 20.6% on average across Ukraine considered NATO a threat; this number was 51% in Crimea.[143] A 2013 Gallup poll showed that 29% associated NATO with "Threat" and 17% with "Protection"; 44% viewed it as neither.[140]

Following the Russian military intervention of 2014, annexation of Crimea and the start of the Donbass War, many Ukrainians changed their views of NATO: polls from the middle of 2014 until 2016 showed that the majority of Ukrainians supported NATO membership.[20][21][22][144]

An electronic petition to the president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko was filed on 29 August 2015[145] requesting that a referendum on joining NATO be conducted. The petition achieved the required 25,000 votes to be considered. The president's reply stated that "One of the main priorities of Ukraine's foreign policy is to deepen cooperation with NATO to achieve the criteria required for membership in this organization. Today, we carry out security sector reform in Ukraine to reach NATO standards and to strengthen the country's defense system, which is necessary to counter Russian aggression. Once Ukraine fulfills all the necessary criteria to join the Alliance, final decision on this important issue will be approved by the Ukrainian people in a referendum."[146]

In February 2017, President Poroshenko announced that a referendum would be held during his presidency, with polls showing that 54% of Ukrainians favor such a move.[147]

According to a sociological survey conducted by the Ukrainian Institute for the Future together with the sociological company New Image Marketing Group in January 2022, 64% of Ukrainians support Ukraine's accession to NATO, while 17% do not support it, 13% do not have an unequivocal opinion on this issue. In the West of Ukraine, in the city of Kyiv and in the South of Ukraine, there were the most supporters of joining NATO – 73%, 71% and 59%. This idea is supported least of all in the East of Ukraine – 47%.[148]

Russian opposition to Ukrainian NATO membership

Russia is strongly opposed to any eastward expansion of NATO.[149][150] On February 12, 2008, then Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia may target its missiles at Ukraine if its neighbour joins NATO and accepts the deployment of a US missile defence shield.[151] Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has stated more than once his country would not allow foreign military bases on its territory;[152] as of December 2009, NATO was not planning to deploy military bases in Ukraine.[153] Along with Russia, China also strongly opposed to any eastward expansion of NATO.[154]

Prime Minister Putin reportedly declared at a NATO-Russia summit in 2008 that if Ukraine joined NATO his country could contend to annex the Ukrainian East and Crimea.[155]

During a NATO conference in Hungarian parliament on 20 November 2008, Deputy Assistant Secretary-General Aurelia Bouchez said: "We should not make a choice between NATO enlargement and Russia as we need both"[156][157] and NATO's Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told a conference in Spain twelve days later: "The emergence of independent states within the former Soviet space is a reality. The ability of these states to determine their own future is a litmus test for the new Europe. Do we have to choose between good relations with Russia and further enlargement? My answer is no – we will not choose, will not sacrifice one for the other. It would bring new dividing lines."[158]

In an interview with the BBC on 18 November 2014, Russian President Putin spokesmen Dmitry Peskov called for "a 100% guarantee that no-one would think about Ukraine joining NATO"; 2 days later Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg rejected this call stating it would be "violating the idea of respecting the sovereignty of Ukraine, which is a fundamental".[159][160]

Request of guarantees of Ukraine's non-accession to NATO

Main article: 2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian crisis
Map of the assessment of US intelligence on the movement of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine as of December 3, 2021. It is estimated that Russia has deployed about 70,000 troops, mostly at a distance of 100-200 km from the Ukrainian border. It is estimated that the number could increase to 175,000. Published: The Washington Post.[161]

On 30 November 2021, Russian President Putin stated that an expansion of NATO's presence in Ukraine, especially the deployment of any long-range missiles capable of striking Russian cities or missile defense systems similar to those in Romania and Poland, would be a "red line" issue for Russia.[162][163][164] Putin asked U.S. President Joe Biden for legal guarantees that NATO wouldn't expand eastward or put "weapons systems that threaten us in close vicinity to Russian territory."[165] According to Putin, "If some kind of strike systems appear on the territory of Ukraine, the flight time to Moscow will be seven to 10 minutes, and five minutes in the case of a hypersonic weapon being deployed."[166] NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg replied that "It's only Ukraine and 30 NATO allies that decide when Ukraine is ready to join NATO. Russia has no veto, Russia has no say, and Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence to try to control their neighbors."[167][168]

On December 1, 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he wanted to receive guarantees from the West that Ukraine would not join NATO. On 16 December, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the Alliance would not make concessions to Russia on the issue of Ukraine's accession. According to him, Ukraine has the right to protection and together with NATO will determine the issue of membership in the Alliance.[169]

On December 17, the Russian Foreign Ministry unveiled a draft agreement between Russia and the United States on "security guarantees" and a draft agreement on measures to ensure the security of Russia and NATO member states. In particular, Russia proposes that NATO renounce the admission of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, as well as "any military activity on the territory of Ukraine." Russia also urges the United States not to establish military bases in the former Soviet Union and not to accept these countries into NATO.[170]

On January 9, 2022, following a visit to Ukraine in January 2022 and a trip to the contact line in the east, EU High Representative Josep Borrell wrote in his blog on the European External Action Service website that some of the provisions of the so-called "draft agreements" on security guarantees for Russia, represented by the Kremlin in December 2021, contradicts the basic principles of the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, so the willingness of NATO and Western countries to discuss these ideas does not mean their willingness to accept them:[171]

The Russian leadership seems to intend to turn the clock backward to the old times of Cold War logics. This type of delimitation of spheres of influence does not belong in 2022: there cannot be a Yalta.

— Josep Borrell

In this regard, on January 10, 2022, US and Russian diplomats held security talks in Geneva to discuss the military activities of both countries and growing tensions around Ukraine. The head of the Russian delegation at a meeting in Geneva between the United States and Russia said that Russia needed "concrete guarantees" that Ukraine and Georgia would never become members of NATO, enshrined in the decision of the Madrid Summit of 2022. Earlier, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov also said that "the risks of military confrontation should not be underestimated" and that the American side, refusing to not expand NATO, underestimates the seriousness of the situation.[172]

In turn, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO will not compromise with Russia on Ukraine's membership and that Ukraine's membership in NATO will be decided by Ukraine and its allies. He assured that the Alliance helps Ukraine to meet the criteria necessary for membership in the organization.[173]

The Alliance continues to provide Ukraine with political support for its territorial integrity and sovereignty, as well as practical assistance. It is also a clear signal that Ukraine has the right to defend itself.

— Jens Stoltenberg

US State Department spokeswoman Wendy Sherman said NATO's "open door" principle was out of the question, and Washington would not give up bilateral cooperation with sovereign states that want to cooperate with the United States. She also added that in contacts with Moscow, Washington does not intend to decide on the fate of Ukraine without the participation of Ukraine, Europe without Europe, and NATO without NATO.[174]

On January 12, 2022, a meeting of the Russia-NATO Council was held in Brussels, where representatives of Russia and 30 member states of the Alliance discussed the requirements of the Russian side to NATO. Jens Stoltenberg again stated that the decision on Ukraine's readiness to join NATO can only be made by Ukraine and 30 allies in the Alliance, NATO will "seriously think" about increasing its presence in Eastern Europe in the event of "new Russian aggression." NATO is also ready to reopen its representative office in Moscow, the Secretary General added.[175] Wendy Sherman noted that NATO will not abandon the policy of "open doors", Russia's demands are unacceptable. NATO allies will not agree with the impossibility of further expansion of the Alliance and a return to the configuration of the late twentieth century, which the Russian side insisted on during the negotiations, the US Deputy Secretary of State claims.

Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Alexander Grushko said that NATO did not initially profess the “open door” policy, which the Alliance declares today, if it fails to fend off threats to its security with political measures, Russia will use military measures:[176]

This policy appeared in 1994 and served very different purposes than building European security. We have a set of legal military-technical measures that we will apply if we feel a real threat to security, and we already feel if our territory is considered as a target for targeted strike weapons. Of course, we cannot agree with this. We will take all necessary measures to fend off the threat by military means, if political means fail.

— Alexander Grushko

During the first OSCE meeting on January 13, 2022, Russia's permanent representative to the OSCE, Alexander Lukashevich, stated that the Russian Federation would be forced to take measures to "eliminate unacceptable threats to national security" if it did not hear a constructive response to its security proposals within a reasonable time:[177]

If we do not hear a constructive response to the proposals made within a reasonable time, and the aggressive line of behavior against Russia continues, we will be forced to draw the appropriate conclusions and take all necessary measures to ensure a strategic balance and eliminate unacceptable threats to our national security.

— Alexander Lukashevich

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at his annual foreign policy press conference that Moscow "has run out of patience" waiting for the West's response to the Kremlin's demands for "security guarantees", and therefore Russia is waiting for a written response within a week. Lavrov said the Kremlin would not wait "indefinitely" for a Western response to Moscow's demands that NATO not expand eastward and deploy troops in Ukraine and other countries of the former Soviet Union. Lavrov's comments came a day after the White House said the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains high, with about 100,000 Russian troops deployed.[178] The next day, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said that the Russian authorities must choose which way to go: choose additional diplomacy or, in case of further aggressive actions, face economic measures that will be stricter than in 2014,[179]

In an interview with La Repubblica on 14 January, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Kyiv had already applied to join the military-political alliance, and in 2008 NATO decided that Ukraine and Georgia would become members, but has not yet determined when this is exactly what will happen.[180]

On January 19, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov made a proposal to the United States to assume legal obligations not to vote for NATO membership of countries whose membership is opposed by the Russian Federation, reducing NATO's non-enlargement requirements. The Kremlin is ready to exchange such an "offer" for the conditions that were put forward earlier - the so-called guarantees of the non-expansion of the Alliance to the east. He noted that the decision taken at the 2008 Bucharest summit "should be ruled out" and that the United States should provide unilateral legal guarantees that "this will never happen". The position that Ukraine and Georgia will never become members of the North Atlantic Alliance, Ryabkov said, is a priority for the Kremlin. According to him, America must have "enough political will" for such a step.[181]

On 22 February 2022 Russia recognized the rebel republics of Donbas, sending its army in the region; finally, on 24 February 2022 Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine's foreign relations with NATO member states

See also

Notes

  1. ^ During a NATO conference in Hungarian parliament on 20 November, she said "We should not make a choice between NATO enlargement and Russia as we need both."[48]
  2. ^ He told a conference in Spain: "The emergence of independent states within the former Soviet space is a reality. The ability of these states to determine their own future is a litmus test for the new Europe. Do we have to choose between good relations with Russia and further enlargement? My answer is no – we will not choose, will not sacrifice one for the other. It would bring new dividing lines."[49]
  3. ^ Condoleezza Rice told a press conference, "We believe that the NATO-Georgia Commission and the NATO-Ukraine Commission can be the bodies with which we intensify our dialogue and our activities. And, therefore, there does not need at this point in time to be any discussion of MAP."[50]
  4. ^ Australia, Finland, Georgia, Jordan, and Sweden are also NATO's enhanced opportunity partner program partners.[91]

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External links

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