Gurnain Pasricha

Principal Researcher

Gurnain Pasricha is a Principal Researcher in International Economic Analysis Department. Her research interests include measuring international financial integration, management of capital flows in emerging economies and the use and effectiveness of capital controls, financial crises and macroprudential policy. Since joining the Bank in 2009, she has also worked in the Financial Stability Department, where her work focused on systemic risk assessment for Canada and building early warning models.

Gurnain obtained a PhD in International Economics from University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC) and is also a Research Affiliate of the Center for Analytical Finance (CAFIN).

Latest

What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-10 Mark Kruger, Gurnain Pasricha

When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China’s capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance.

Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, G, G1, G18

Domestic and Multilateral Effects of Capital Controls in Emerging Markets

Staff Working Paper 2015-37 Gurnain Pasricha, Matteo Falagiarda, Martin Bijsterbosch, Joshua Aizenman

Using a novel data set on capital control actions in 17 emerging-market economies (EMEs) over the period 2001–11, we provide new evidence on domestic and multilateral (or spillover) effects of capital controls.

Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F4, F41, F42, G, G1, G15

Motivations for Capital Controls and Their Effectiveness

Staff Working Paper 2015-5 Radhika Pandey, Gurnain Pasricha, Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah

We assess the motivations for changing capital controls and their effectiveness in India, a country with extensive and long-standing controls. We focus on the controls on foreign borrowing that can, in principle, be motivated by macroprudential concerns.

Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, G, G1, G15, G18

14 November 2013 Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2013 Gurnain Pasricha, Tom Roberts, Ian Christensen, Brad Howell

This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use to assess vulnerabilities.

Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): E, E6, E66, G, G0, G01

Why Do Emerging Markets Liberalize Capital Outflow Controls? Fiscal versus Net Capital Flow Concerns

Staff Working Paper 2013-21 Joshua Aizenman, Gurnain Pasricha

In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the factors that motivated emerging economies to change their capital outflow controls in recent decades. Liberalization of capital outflow controls can allow emerging-market economies (EMEs) to reduce net capital inflow (NKI) pressures, but may cost their governments the fiscal revenues that external financial repression generates.

Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Debt Management, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, G, G1, G15

Other

Refereed Journals

Net Fiscal Stimulus during the Great Recession
(with J. Aizenman) Review of Development Economics, Volume 17 (special issue), Issue 3, pages 397-413, August 2013.
Why do emerging markets liberalize capital outflow controls? Fiscal versus net capital flows concerns
(with J. Aizenman) Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 39, Pages 28-64 (December 2013).
Effectiveness of Capital Controls in India: Evidence from Offshore NDF Market
(with Michael Hutchison and Nirvikar Singh) IMF Economic Review (2012) 60 (3), 395-438.
Net Fiscal Stimulus during the Great Recession
(with Joshua Aizenman) Review of Development Economics (forthcoming) [Also published as Working Paper No. 16779, February 2011]
Recent Trends in Measures to Manage Capital Flows in Emerging Economies
North American Journal of Economics and Finance, “International finance in the aftermath of the 2008 global crisis”, 23(3) pp 286-309, 2012.
Determinants of financial stress and recovery during the great recession
(with Joshua Aizenman), International Journal of Finance and Economics, 17(4), 347-372, 2012. [Also published as NBER Working Paper No. 16605, December 2010.]
The Net Fiscal Expenditure Stimulus in the US, 2008-9: Less than What You Might Think, and Less than the Fiscal Stimuli of Most OECD Countries
(with J. Aizenman), The Economists' Voice, 8(2), 1839, 2011.
Selective Swap Arrangements and the Global Financial Crisis: Analysis and Interpretation,"
(with Joshua Aizenman). International Review of Economics & Finance, 2010, Vol.19 (3). [Also published as NBER Working Paper No. 14821, March 2009.]

Commentary in Media

Why do emerging markets liberalise capital-outflow controls? Fiscal versus net capital flow concerns,
(with J. Aizenman) VoxEU, 2 May 2013.
Fiscal fragility: what the past may say about the future,
(with J. Aizenman) VoxEU, 7 November 2010.
The net fiscal expenditure stimulus in the US 2008-2009: less than what you might think,
(with J. Aizenman) VoxEU, 3 March 2010
When a currency futures market dominates a currency forward market,
Ajay Shah blog, 25 November 2009.

Other Publications

Domestic and Multilateral Effects of Capital Controls in Emerging Markets
(with Matteo Falagiarda, Martin Bijsterbosch and Joshua Aizenman), NBER Working Paper No. 20822, January 2015.
Some Market Measures of Capital Account Liberalization in India
(with M. Hutchison and N. Singh). In Asia and China in the Global Economy, edited by Yin-Wong Cheung and Guonan Ma, World Scientific Publishing co. Pte. Ltd., Singapore, 53-80, 2011.
Fiscal fragility: what the past may say about the future
(with J. Aizenman). NBER Working Paper No. 16478, October 2010.
On the ease of overstating the fiscal stimulus in the US, 2008-9,
(with Joshua Aizenman). NBER Working Paper No. 15784, February 2010.
Bank Competition and International Financial Integration: Evidence using a New Index",
Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, Working Paper No. 24, 2009.
Financial Integration in Emerging Market Economies,
UCSC Department of Economics Working Paper No. 641, May 2008.
Imperfect Competition in Financial Markets and Capital Controls: A Model and a Test,
MPRA Paper 12125, University Library of Munich, Germany, 2008.
Kalman filter and its economic applications
(2006) MPRA Paper No. 22734

Citations in Media

Free exchange: An on-off relationship; Counter-cyclical capital controls are great in theory but less useful in practice,
The Economist, Saturday, December 13, 2014.
Fifty One Herbert Hoovers,
Paul Krugman, Conscience of a Liberal, March 11, 2010.
Good for America, as far as it went,
Clive Crook, Financial Times, 7 March 2010.
Ten pieces worth reading, mostly economics: 2 March 2010,
Brad Delong, Grasping reality with both hands, 2 March 2010.
How financially open is India?
Nirvikar Singh, Financial Express, 13 September 2007.
Forex futures more efficient than OTC market, says SEBI,
Gaurav Pai and Reena Zachariah, Economic Times, 30 November 2009.

Gurnain Pasricha

Principal Researcher

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Principal Researcher

14 November 2013 Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach

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