Michael Francis

Michael Francis

Senior Analyst

Michael Francis is a Senior Analyst in the Advanced Economies Division of the International Department. His primary interests lie within the field of international macroeconomics. Michael’s other research interests include resource economics and international trade. Before joining the Bank of Canada, Michael lectured in economics at the University of Canberra, Australian National University and Carleton University. He has also had temporary appointments at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific as well as at the Canadian Department of Finance. Michael holds an undergraduate degree from Flinders University of South Australia as well as an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Carleton University in Ottawa.

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Michael Francis

Senior Analyst
International Economic Analysis
Advanced Economies

Bank of Canada
234 Laurier Avenue West
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Latest

14 May 2015 The Slowdown in Global Trade

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Michael Francis, Louis Morel
Global trade growth has been weak during the period following the 2007–09 financial crisis. This is an important development for Canada, given the Canadian economy's high degree of openness to trade. This article investigates some of the factors behind the slowdown in global trade and finds that the weakness of global demand and its changing composition, increased protectionism and diminishing incentives to expand trade have all played a role. Some of these factors are likely to have only a temporary effect on trade growth, but others could be more long-lasting.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4, F6

India and the Global Demand for Commodities: Is There an Elephant in the Room?

Staff Discussion Paper 2008-18 Michael Francis, Corinne Luu
After 10 years of impressive growth, India is now the fourth largest economy in the world. Yet, to date, India's impact on global commodity markets has been muted. The authors examine how India's domestic and trade policies have distorted and constrained its demand for commodities.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Development economics, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, O, O1, O13, O5, O53

15 September 2008 Adjusting to the Commodity-Price Boom: The Experiences of Four Industrialized Countries

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 Michael Francis
Between 2002 and 2008, global commodity prices rose to unprecedented levels. This article examines the process of adjustment to the commodity boom in four industrialized, commodity-exporting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Norway). The article focuses on both the direct adjustment within the commodity-producing sectors (via increased employment and capital spending) and the indirect adjustment in the macro economy. The analysis finds that the indirect adjustment process, which was triggered by the increase in incomes that the commodity-price boom generated, has been the most important part of the adjustment in all four economies. Through this channel, aggregate demand rose, exchange rates appreciated, and adjustment was facilitated in other sectors, such as manufacturing and construction.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments

14 October 2007 The Effect of China on Global Prices

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2007 Michael Francis
The dramatic growth in China's exports of consumer goods such as clothing, toys, and electronics, and imports of primary commodities such as oil and metals is having major effects on global supply and demand. In examining China's role in global relative price changes, Francis finds that downward pressure on the relative prices of consumer goods is likely to persist as China's large labour supply continues its migration into manufacturing. Likewise, China's size and growth will also remain key drivers of global commodities demand for some time. Despite these forces, inflation-targeting central banks have the tools to keep inflation close to target, thus offsetting any persistent upward or downward inflationary pressure.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments

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Other

Chapters in books

  • “India and the Global Demand for Commodities: Is There an Elephant in the Room?” in Light the Lamp: Papers on World Trade and Investment in Memory of Bijit Bora, Christopher Findlay and David Parsons (eds) (Singapore, World Scientific Publishing Co, 2010) pp 117-177. Also published as a Bank of Canada Discussion Paper 08-18 (With Corinne Luu).
  • “Institutional Reform, Trade and Growth: The Experiences of India and China in a Global Economy,” in Economic Reforms in India and China – Emerging issues and challenges, B Sudhakara Reddy (ed), (Delhi, Sage Publications, 2009), pp 61- 87. (With B Desroches and F. Painchaud).

Published Comments

  • “Review of T. Tietenberg, ‘Environmental Economics and Policy,’” Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 45 no. 4 (2001): 468-470.

Refereed Journals

  • “Governance and Financial Fragility,” Economic Papers, Vol. 23, no. 4 (2004): 386-395.
  • “Trade and the Enforcement of Environmental Property Rights,” Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, vol. 14, no. 3 (2005): 281-298.
  • “World Real Interest Rates: A Global Savings and Investment Perspective,” Applied Economics, Vol. 42, no. 22 (2010): 2801-2816.

 

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Education

  • Doctor of Philosophy (Economics), Carleton University (1999)

Research Interests

  • International Economics

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