Staff Analytical Notes

• Low for Longer? Why the Global Oil Market in 2014 Is Not Like 1986

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-11 Bahattin Buyuksahin, Reinhard Ellwanger, Kun Mo, Konrad Zmitrowicz

  In the second half of 2014, oil prices experienced a sharp decline, falling more than 50 per cent between June 2014 and January 2015. A cursory glance at this oil price crash suggests similarities to developments in 1986, when the price of oil declined by more than 50 per cent, initiating an episode of relatively low oil prices that lasted for more than a decade.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43

• The Case of Serial Disappointment

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-10 Justin-Damien Guénette, Nicholas Labelle, Martin Leduc, Lori Rennison

  Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Potential output, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E6, E66, F, F0, F01

• The US Labour Market: How Much Slack Remains?

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-9 Robert Fay, James Ketcheson

  Despite the US unemployment rate being close to estimates of the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), measures of underemployment remain elevated, which could be an indication of remaining labour market slack. The shares of involuntary part-time workers and long-term unemployment are high relative to the current stage of the business cycle, suggesting available labour inputs are being underutilized.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J23

• Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-8 Farrukh Suvankulov

  This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E27, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47

• Ce que révèle une analyse sectorielle des dynamiques récentes de l’inflation au Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-7 Laurence Savoie-Chabot

  Decomposing total inflation in Canada as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) into its key macroeconomic factors, as presented in the most recent Monetary Policy Report, is an interesting exercise that shows how the exchange rate pass-through, commodity prices and the output gap have influenced the evolution of the total inflation rate over time. This aggregate approach, however, may mask important sectoral changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• Un examen plus approfondi des pressions salariales au Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-6 Dany Brouillette, Laurence Savoie-Chabot

  In this note, we provide a brief outline of the recent developments in wage measures in Canada. We then assess whether wage growth is consistent with its fundamentals.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J30

• Implementing Market-Based Indicators to Monitor Vulnerabilities of Financial Institutions

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-5 Cameron MacDonald, Maarten van Oordt, Robin Scott

  This note introduces several market-based indicators and examines how they can further inform the Bank of Canada’s vulnerability assessment of Canadian financial institutions. Market-based indicators of leverage suggest that the solvency risk for major Canadian banks has increased since the beginning of the oil-price correction in the second half of 2014.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial Institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G21

• April 2016 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-4 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Shutao Cao, Natalia Kyui, Pierre St-Amant

  This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s 2016 annual reassessment of potential output growth, which is projected to be 1.5 per cent over 2016–18 and 1.6 per cent in 2019–20. This projection is weaker than the one presented in the April 2015 Monetary Policy Report.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity

• Canadian Labour Market Dispersion: Mind the (Shrinking) Gap

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-3 David Amirault, Naveen Rai

  Shocks to a currency area can and often do have asymmetric impacts on its regions that, in the absence of perfect labour mobility, lead to gaps in relative labour market performance. Witness, for example, the effects of the 2008/09 recession and subsequent financial crisis in Europe on the dispersion of employment rates across the euro area – and to a lesser extent the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J0, J01, R, R2, R23

• Predictive Ability of Commodity Prices for the Canadian Dollar

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-2 Kimberly Berg, Pierre Guérin, Yuko Imura

  Recent sharp declines in commodity prices and the simultaneous depreciation of the Canadian dollar (CAD) relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) have rekindled an interest in the relationship between commodity prices and the CAD-USD exchange rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates