Louis Morel

louis-morel

Assistant Chief

Louis Morel is the head of the Advanced Economies Division in the International Economic Analysis Department. His team contributes to the department’s economic outlook and produces research and analyses on the macroeconomic, financial and policy developments in major advanced overseas economies. Prior to joining the international department in April 2013, he spent nine years in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. Mr. Morel holds a Masters in Economics from Queen’s University.

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Louis Morel

Assistant Chief
International Economic Analysis
Advanced Economies

Bank of Canada
234 Laurier Avenue West
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Latest

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation for Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2015-12 Mikael Khan, Louis Morel, Patrick Sabourin
This paper evaluates the usefulness of various measures of core inflation for the conduct of monetary policy. Traditional exclusion-based measures of core inflation are found to perform relatively poorly across a range of evaluation criteria, in part due to their inability to filter unanticipated transitory shocks.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52

14 May 2015 The Slowdown in Global Trade

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Michael Francis, Louis Morel
Global trade growth has been weak during the period following the 2007–09 financial crisis. This is an important development for Canada, given the Canadian economy's high degree of openness to trade. This article investigates some of the factors behind the slowdown in global trade and finds that the weakness of global demand and its changing composition, increased protectionism and diminishing incentives to expand trade have all played a role. Some of these factors are likely to have only a temporary effect on trade growth, but others could be more long-lasting.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4, F6

Sluggish Exports in Advanced Economies: How Much Is Due to Demand?

Staff Discussion Paper 2015-3 Louis Morel
Exports in advanced economies have been relatively sluggish since 2011, growing at a much slower pace than observed before the global financial crisis.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4

Forecasting Short-Term Real GDP Growth in the Euro Area and Japan Using Unrestricted MIDAS Regressions

Staff Discussion Paper 2014-3 Maxime Leboeuf, Louis Morel
In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting short-term real GDP growth.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47

The Common Component of CPI: An Alternative Measure of Underlying Inflation for Canada

Staff Working Paper 2013-35 Mikael Khan, Louis Morel, Patrick Sabourin
In this paper, the authors propose a measure of underlying inflation for Canada obtained from estimating a monthly factor model on individual components of the CPI. This measure, labelled the common component of CPI, has intuitive appeal and a number of interesting features.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C1, E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, E58

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Other

Refereed Journals

  • "Relation entre le taux de change et les exportations nettes : test de la condition Marshall-Lerner pour le Canada"
    (with Benoit Perron). L'Actualité économique (December 2003), Vol.79, No.4, p. 481-502. (in french only).

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Education

  • M.A., Queen's University (2004)
  • B. Sc. (Honours), Université de Montréal (2003)

Research Interests

  • macroeconomics
  • business cycle fluctuations

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