Justin-Damien Guénette is a Principal Economist in the United States Division of the International Department. His primary interests include macroeconomics, emerging markets and energy commodities. He obtained his Masters in Global Governance and Economics from the University of Waterloo.
Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.
Emerging-market economies have become increasingly important in driving global GDP growth over the past 10 to 15 years. This has made timely and accurate assessment of current and future economic activity in emerging markets important for policy-makers not only in these countries but also in advanced economies.
We examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in North America. This production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil-recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable.
“A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market” (with Ron Alquist), Energy Policy Journal, January 2014.
