C5 - Econometric Modeling
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Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion
Fluctuations in the prices of various natural resource products are of concern in both policy and business circles; hence, it is important to develop accurate price forecasts. -
The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: A Time-Varying Monetary Policy Priority Index for the United States
In the United States, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of promoting stable inflation and maximum employment. Since the Fed directly controls only one instrument - the federal funds rate - the authors argue that the Fed's priorities continuously alternate between inflation and economic activity.