Business fluctuations and cycles
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MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy
The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection. -
Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators?
Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation. -
Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics: Evidence from a Two-Dimensional Labour Supply Model with Money
The hypothesis of intertemporal substitution in labour supply has a history of empirical failure when confronted with aggregate time-series data. -
Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined in Canada?
Several empirical studies suggest that exchange rate pass-through has declined in recent years in industrialized countries. -
Learning-by-Doing or Habit Formation?
In a recent paper, Chang, Gomes, and Schorfheide (2002) extend the standard real business cycle (RBC) model to allow for a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism whereby current labour supply affects future productivity. -
Self-Enforcing Labour Contracts and the Dynamics Puzzle
To properly account for the dynamics of key macroeconomic variables, researchers incorporate various internal-propagation mechanisms in their models.