The Bank of Canada monitors a wide range of indicators in assessing the extent of pressures on capacity and inflation. The Bank's conventional estimate of the output gap provides an overall assessment of the degree of slack in the economy, but this estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty is addressed by considering a wide range of indicators in various markets. Many of these indicators are derived from data published by Statistics Canada, but some reflect information gathered by the Bank's regional representatives as well as by various outside sources. For further discussion of uncertainty as well as the information and analysis used to inform monetary policy decisions at the Bank of Canada, see Jenkins and Longworth1 (2002) and Macklem2 (2002).
1. Jenkins, Paul and David Longworth, "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty."Bank of Canada Review, Summer 2002: 3-10.
2. Macklem, Tiff, "Information and Analysis for Monetary Policy: Coming to a Decision." Bank of Canada Review, Summer 2002: 11-18.
(Sources)
Note: The following tables are updated one day after the Bank's most recent announcement date for the target overnight rate, based on information available up to that date. When the fixed announcement date is accompanied by a quarterly Monetary Policy Report, the tables will be updated on the day of release.
Updated: 12 April 2017
Next update: 25 May 2017
Definitions, Graphs and Data
Inflation (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2015 Q2 | 2015 Q3 | 2015 Q4 | 2016 Q1 | 2016 Q2 | 2016 Q3 | 2016 Q4 | 2017 Q1 | 2017 Q2 | Latest data |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total CPI Inflation | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.0 Feb | ||
CPI-trim | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 Feb | ||
CPI-median | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 Feb | ||
CPI-common | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 Feb | ||
Chain price index for GDP | -0.6 | -1.1 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 Q4 | ||
Chain price index for consumption | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 Q4 |
Product market Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2015 Q2 | 2015 Q3 | 2015 Q4 | 2016 Q1 | 2016 Q2 | 2016 Q3 | 2016 Q4 | 2017 Q1 | 2017 Q2 | Latest data | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Output gap (Integrated framework)1 | -2.8 | -2.6 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -2.4 | -2.0 | -1.4 | -1.4 Q1 | ||
Output gap (Extended multivariate filter)1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -1.2 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.2 | -0.2 Q1 | ||
Capacity utilization rate | Non-farm goods (%) (1987-2001 avg. = 83.35) | 80.4 | 80.9 | 80.4 | 80.9 | 79.4 | 81.6 | 82.2 | 82.2 Q4 | ||
Manufacturing (%) (1987-2001 avg. = 81.80) | 81.3 | 82.1 | 81.9 | 82.4 | 81.2 | 81.8 | 81.7 | 81.7 Q4 | |||
Business Outlook Survey | Difficulty meeting an unanticipated increase in demand/sales (% firms) | 47.0 | 28.0 | 36.0 | 39.0 | 35.0 | 38.0 | 37.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 Q1 | |
Unfilled orders/shipments - Manufacturing excluding aerospace products and parts | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.84 | 0.82 | 0.81 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.75 Jan | |||
Aggregate stock-to-sales ratio | 0.679 | 0.676 | 0.677 | 0.670 | 0.682 | 0.676 | 0.669 | 0.669 Q4 | |||
Foreign demand for Canadian non-commodity exports (2007=100)1 | GRACE | 104.0 | 104.7 | 104.8 | 105.0 | 105.0 | 105.9 | 107.2 | 107.2 Q4 | ||
FAM-IO | 116.1 | 117.0 | 117.3 | 117.5 | 118.3 | 119.0 | 119.9 | 119.9 Q4 |
- As of the most recent Monetary Policy Report. Learn more on the Extended multivariate filter and Integrated Framework. [←]
Labour market Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2015 Q2 | 2015 Q3 | 2015 Q4 | 2016 Q1 | 2016 Q2 | 2016 Q3 | 2016 Q4 | 2017 Q1 | 2017 Q2 | Latest data |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment rate (%) | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.7 Mar | |
Labour market indicator (LMI) | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 Mar | |
Participation rate (%) | 65.8 | 65.9 | 65.9 | 65.8 | 65.6 | 65.6 | 65.8 | 65.9 | 65.9 Mar | |
Growth in employment (annualized rate, %) | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.1 Mar 2 | |
Labour shortage (% firms, Business Outlook Survey) | 19.0 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 20.0 | 19.0 | 24.0 | 28.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 Q1 | |
Intensity of labour shortages (balance of opinion, Business Outlook Survey) | -16.0 | -14.0 | -24.0 | -28.0 | -19.0 | -9.0 | -4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 Q1 |
- Percentage change at monthly rate. [←]
Wages and costs (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2015 Q2 | 2015 Q3 | 2015 Q4 | 2016 Q1 | 2016 Q2 | 2016 Q3 | 2016 Q4 | 2017 Q1 | 2017 Q2 | Latest data | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labour Force Survey - Average hourly earnings | All employees | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 Mar | |
Permanent employees | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 Mar | ||
Wage settlements - Private sector | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.9 Feb | |||
Compensation per hour - Business sector | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 Q4 | |||
Unit labour costs - Total economy (labour income/GDP at market prices) | 2.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 Q4 | |||
Unit labour costs - Business sector | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 Q4 | |||
Bank of Canada commodity price index | Total | -33.00 | -39.90 | -34.80 | -25.10 | -17.40 | -4.30 | 9.30 | 29.80 | 18.60 Mar | |
Energy | -42.50 | -51.40 | -44.50 | -34.80 | -24.50 | -2.90 | 21.30 | 63.00 | 39.20 Mar | ||
Non-energy | -9.20 | -14.90 | -17.20 | -13.90 | -9.20 | -5.50 | -1.30 | 4.40 | 2.30 Mar |
Real estate market (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2015 Q2 | 2015 Q3 | 2015 Q4 | 2016 Q1 | 2016 Q2 | 2016 Q3 | 2016 Q4 | 2017 Q1 | 2017 Q2 | Latest data | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New housing price index | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.1 Jan | |||
Vacancy rate | Apartments (%) Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 Q4 | |||||||
Offices (%) Source: Cushman & Wakefield | 10.0 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 11.9 Q4 | |||
Industrial market (%) Source: Cushman & Wakefield | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 Q4 |
Expectations (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2015 Q2 | 2015 Q3 | 2015 Q4 | 2016 Q1 | 2016 Q2 | 2016 Q3 | 2016 Q4 | 2017 Q1 | 2017 Q2 | Latest data | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Percentage of firms expecting price increases over the next six months of: Source: The Conference Board of Canada | 1% or less | 37 | 47 | 28 | 44 | 36 | 40 | 30 | 30 Q4 | ||
2% or less | 94 | 79 | 55 | 83 | 80 | 80 | 77 | 77 Q4 | |||
3% or less | 97 | 94 | 80 | 98 | 97 | 92 | 91 | 91 Q4 | |||
More than 3% | 3 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 8 Q4 | |||
CPI inflation: Consensus Forecasts Source: Consensus Economics | 2016 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 Jan | ||
2017 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 Feb | ||||||
2018 | 2.0 Feb | ||||||||||
2-3 years | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |||
6-10 years | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||
Percentage of firms expecting CPI inflation over the next two years to be: Source: Business Outlook Survey | Less than 1% | 3 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 Q1 | |
1-2% | 68 | 63 | 70 | 60 | 67 | 76 | 66 | 64 | 64 Q1 | ||
2-3% | 26 | 24 | 18 | 24 | 25 | 19 | 23 | 30 | 30 Q1 | ||
More than 3% | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 Q1 | ||
Expectations implicit in real/nominal bond spread | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 Mar |