G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

• Small‐Sample Tests for Stock Return Predictability with Possibly Non‐Stationary Regressors and GARCH‐Type Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We develop a simulation-based procedure to test for stock return predictability with multiple regressors. The process governing the regressors is left completely free and the test procedure remains valid in small samples even in the presence of non-normalities and GARCH-type effects in the stock returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C3, C32, G, G1, G14

• Banking Regulation and Market Making

  Staff Working Paper 2017-7 David A. Cimon, Corey Garriott

  We present a model of market makers subject to recent banking regulations: liquidity and capital constraints in the style of Basel III and a position limit in the style of the Volcker Rule.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1, L10

• Options Decimalization

  Staff Working Paper 2016-57 Faith Chin, Corey Garriott

  We document the outcome of an options decimalization pilot on Canada’s derivatives exchange. Decimalization improves measures of liquidity and price efficiency. The impact differs by the moneyness of an option and is greatest for out-of-the-money options.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1, L10

• Bank Screening Heterogeneity

  Staff Working Paper 2016-56 Thibaut Duprey

  Production efficiency and financial stability do not necessarily go hand in hand. With heterogeneity in banks’ abilities to screen borrowers, the market for loans becomes segmented and a self-competition mechanism arises. When heterogeneity increases, the intensive and extensive margins have opposite effects.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial Institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G21, L, L1, L13

• Retail Order Flow Segmentation

  Staff Working Paper 2016-20 Corey Garriott, Adrian Walton

  In August 2012, the New York Stock Exchange launched the Retail Liquidity Program (RLP), a trading facility that enables participating organizations to quote dark limit orders executable only by retail traders.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1, L10

• A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil

  Staff Working Paper 2016-18 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian

  Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, D, D8, D84, G, G1, G14, Q, Q4, Q43

• Managerial Compensation Duration and Stock Price Manipulation

  Staff Working Paper 2015-25 Josef Schroth

  I build a model of optimal managerial compensation where managers each have a privately observed propensity to manipulate short-term stock prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, G, G1, G14, G3, G30, M, M1, M12

• Large-Scale Asset Purchases: Impact on Commodity Prices and International Spillover Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2015-21 Sharon Kozicki, Eric Santor, Lena Suchanek

  Prices of commodities, including metals, energy and agricultural products, rose markedly over the 2009–2010 period. Some observers have attributed a significant part of this increase in commodity prices to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs.

  Content Type(s): Staff Working Papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G1, G14, Q, Q0, Q00

• High-Frequency Trading around Macroeconomic News Announcements: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market

  Staff Working Paper 2014-56 George Jiang, Ingrid Lo, Giorgio Valente

  This paper investigates high-frequency (HF) market and limit orders in the U.S. Treasury market around major macroeconomic news announcements. BrokerTec introduced i- Cross at the end of 2007 and we use this exogenous event as an instrument to analyze the impact of HF activities on liquidity and price efficiency.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12, G14

• 10 December 2014 Exchange-Traded Funds: Evolution of Benefits, Vulnerabilities and Risks

  Financial System Review - December 2014 Ian Foucher, Kyle Gray

  Ian Foucher and Kyle Gray explain the different types of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which present both benefits and risks for investors. They discuss ways in which the risk characteristics of certain ETF products could have broader implications for the financial system, and describe the evolution of ETF market structure and regulation in different jurisdictions as authorities try to mitigate risks related to ETFs.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review Article Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G18, G2, G20