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Louis Morel is the Director of the Advanced Economies Division in the International Economic Analysis Department. His team contributes to the department’s economic outlook and produces research and analyses on the macroeconomic, financial and policy developments in major advanced overseas economies. Prior to joining the international department in April 2013, he spent nine years in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. Mr. Morel holds a Masters in Economics from Queen’s University.
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.
This paper evaluates the usefulness of various measures of core inflation for the conduct of monetary policy. Traditional exclusion-based measures of core inflation are found to perform relatively poorly across a range of evaluation criteria, in part due to their inability to filter unanticipated transitory shocks.
Global trade growth has been weak during the period following the 2007–09 financial crisis. This is an important development for Canada, given the Canadian economy's high degree of openness to trade. This article investigates some of the factors behind the slowdown in global trade and finds that the weakness of global demand and its changing composition, increased protectionism and diminishing incentives to expand trade have all played a role. Some of these factors are likely to have only a temporary effect on trade growth, but others could be more long-lasting.
Exports in advanced economies have been relatively sluggish since 2011, growing at a much slower pace than observed before the global financial crisis.
In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting short-term real GDP growth.
"Relation entre le taux de change et les exportations nettes : test de la condition Marshall-Lerner pour le Canada" (with Benoit Perron). L'Actualité économique (December 2003), Vol.79, No.4, p. 481-502. (in french only).