G13 - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

• What Fed Funds Futures Tell Us About Monetary Policy Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2016-61 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a “path” factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G12, G13

• Equity Option-Implied Probability of Default and Equity Recovery Rate

  Staff Working Paper 2016-58 Bo Young Chang, Greg Orosi

  There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the option-implied default probability.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13, G3, G33

• What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?

  Staff Working Paper 2014-42 Ron Alquist, Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios

  Using the prices of crude oil futures contracts, we construct the term structure of crude oil convenience yields out to one-year maturity. The crude oil convenience yield can be interpreted as the interest rate, denominated in barrels of oil, for borrowing a single barrel of oil, and it measures the value of storing crude oil over the borrowing period.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q4, Q43

• CoMargin

  Staff Working Paper 2013-47 Jorge Cruz Lopez, Jeffrey H. Harris, Christophe Hurlin, Christophe Pérignon

  We present CoMargin, a new methodology to estimate collateral requirements for central counterparties (CCPs) in derivatives markets. CoMargin depends on both the tail risk of a given market participant and its interdependence with other participants.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial Institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13

• The Financialization of Food?

  Staff Working Paper 2013-39 Valentina G. Bruno, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Michel A. Robe

  Commodity-equity and cross-commodity return co-movements rose dramatically after the 2008 financial crisis. This development took place following what has been dubbed the “financialization” of commodity markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q1, Q11, Q13

• Estimating the Policy Rule from Money Market Rates when Target Rate Changes Are Lumpy

  Staff Working Paper 2012-41 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  Most central banks effect changes to their target or policy rate in discrete increments (e.g., multiples of 0.25%) following public announcements on scheduled dates. Still, for most applications, researchers rely on the assumption that the policy rate changes linearly with economic conditions and they do not distinguish between dates with and without scheduled announcements.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G12, G13

• The Economic Value of Realized Volatility: Using High-Frequency Returns for Option Valuation

  Staff Working Paper 2012-34 Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou, Kris Jacobs, Nour Meddahi

  Many studies have documented that daily realized volatility estimates based on intraday returns provide volatility forecasts that are superior to forecasts constructed from daily returns only. We investigate whether these forecasting improvements translate into economic value added.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13

• Risk Premium, Variance Premium and the Maturity Structure of Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2012-11 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Abderrahim Taamouti, Roméo Tedongap

  Expected returns vary when investors face time-varying investment opportunities. Long-run risk models (Bansal and Yaron 2004) and no-arbitrage affine models (Duffie, Pan, and Singleton 2000) emphasize sources of risk that are not observable to the econometrician.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Financial services JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13

• Market Expectations and Option Prices: Evidence for the Can$/US$ Exchange Rate

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-2 Alejandro García, Andrei Prokopiw

  Security prices contain valuable information that can be used to make a wide variety of economic decisions. To extract this information, a model is required that relates market prices to the desired information, and that ideally can be implemented using timely and low-cost methods.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C0, C00, C02, G, G1, G13

• Measures of Aggregate Credit Conditions and Their Potential Use by Central Banks

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-12 Alejandro García, Andrei Prokopiw

  Understanding the nature of credit risk has important implications for financial stability. Since authorities – notably, central banks – focus on risks that have systemic implications, it is crucial to develop ways to measure these risks.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12, G13