Staff Discussion Papers

• Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-5 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille

  Every quarter, the Bank of Canada conducts quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada, referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). A principal-component analysis conducted by Pichette and Rennison (2011) led to the development of the BOS indicator, which summarizes survey results and is used by the Bank as a gauge of overall business sentiment.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C82, E, E3, E37

• The Costs of Point-of-Sale Payments in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-4 Anneke Kosse, Heng Chen, Marie-Hélène Felt, Valéry Dongmo Jiongo, Kerry Nield, Angelika Welte

  This study provides insight into the costs of cash, debit card and credit card payments made at the point of sale in Canada in 2014. For each payment method, it examines the total resource costs, which capture the overall use of resources by society as a whole.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial Institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D2, D23, D24, E, E4, E41, E42, G, G2, G21, L, L2

• Repo Market Functioning when the Interest Rate Is Low or Negative

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-3 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, James Hately, Adrian Walton

  This paper investigates how a low or negative overnight interest rate might affect the Canadian repo markets. The main conclusion is that the repo market for general collateral will continue to function effectively.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G1, G10, G12

• Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-2 André Binette, Tony Chernis, Daniel de Munnik

  Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canada’s current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43

• An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx

  We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F17

• Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Framework for Assessing Why and How

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-22 Ben Fung, Hanna Halaburda

  Digital currencies have attracted strong interest in recent years and have the potential to become widely adopted for use in making payments. Public authorities and central banks around the world are closely monitoring developments in digital currencies and studying their implications for the economy, the financial system and central banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): E-Money, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42

• The Digital Economy—Insight from a Special Survey with IT Service Exporters

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-21 Wei Dong, James Fudurich, Lena Suchanek

  Information technology (IT) is an increasingly integral part of everyday business and personal life reflecting the ongoing and accelerating digital transformation of the economy. In this paper, we present information gathered from a survey with export-oriented firms in the Canadian IT service industry and consultations with industry associations aimed at shedding light on this small but highly dynamic sector.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Service Sector JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, L, L8, L86, O, O3, O33

• The Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-20 Stephen S. Poloz

  In this paper we explore the nexus between cross-border trade integration and monetary policy. We first review the evidence that trade liberalization has increased the degree of integration in North America and conclude that, while robust structural inferences remain elusive, there is sufficient supporting evidence for central banks to treat the issue seriously.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary Policy, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, F, F1, F4, F41, F6

• Implementing Cross-Border Interbank Lending in BoC-GEM-FIN

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-19 Malik Shukayev, Argyn Toktamyssov

  BIS interbank lending data show that the Great Recession generated large and persistent changes in the international interbank lending positions of various countries. The main objective of this study is to understand the role of changes in international interbank credit flows in transmitting shocks across borders.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F4, F47

• Using Speed and Credit Limits to Address the Procyclicality of Initial Margin at Central Counterparties

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-18 Nikil Chande, Nicholas Labelle

  This paper proposes a practical approach to address the procyclicality of initial margin at central counterparties (CCPs) that can work even in periods of extreme stress. The approach allows CCPs to limit the speed of margin increases resulting from spikes in market volatility.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18