Balance of payments and components

• Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-2 André Binette, Tony Chernis, Daniel de Munnik

  Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canada’s current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43

• An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx

  We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F17

• What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-10 Mark Kruger, Gurnain Pasricha

  When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China’s capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, G, G1, G18

• An Update - Canadian Non-Energy Exports: Past Performance and Future Prospects

  Staff Discussion Paper 2015-10 André Binette, Daniel de Munnik, Julie Melanson

  In light of the fact that Canada was continuing to lose market share in the United States, Binette, de Munnik and Gouin-Bonenfant (2014) studied 31 Canadian non-energy export (NEX) categories to assess their individual performance.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43

• Capital Flows and Macroprudential Policies - A Multilateral Assessment of Effectiveness and Externalities

  Staff Working Paper 2014-31 John Beirne, Christian Friedrich

  This paper assesses the effectiveness and associated externalities that arise when macroprudential policies (MPPs) are used to manage international capital flows. Using a sample of up to 139 countries, we examine the impact of eight different MPP measures on cross-border bank flows over the period 1999-2009.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F5, G, G0, G01, G1, G11

• Canadian Non-Energy Exports: Past Performance and Future Prospects

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-1 André Binette, Daniel de Munnik, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant

  Canada has continued to lose market share in the United States since the Great Recession, beyond what our bilateral competitiveness measures (relative unit labour costs) would suggest.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43

• The Evolution of Canada’s Global Export Market Share

  Staff Working Paper 2012-31 Daniel de Munnik, Jocelyn Jacob, Wesley Sze

  Following gains during the 1990s, Canada’s global market share of goods exports has declined markedly in recent years. In this regard, the constant market share analysis framework is used to decompose changes in Canada’s global market share into competitiveness and structural effects over the 1990‐2010 period, as well as to draw some comparisons to a number of other countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43

• 17 May 2012 On the Adjustment of the Global Economy

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2012 Carlos De Resende, Claudia Godbout, René Lalonde, Eric Morin, Nikita Perevalov

  This article discusses three scenarios for the adjustment of the global economy. In a “baseline” scenario—which encompasses fiscal consolidation in major advanced economies, growth-friendly structural reforms in Europe and Japan, and greater exchange rate flexibility and reforms in the emerging-market economies of Asia to induce rotation of demand away from net exports—global current account imbalances […]

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, Fiscal Policy, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F37, F4, F42

• A Foreign Activity Measure for Predicting Canadian Exports

  Staff Discussion Paper 2012-1 Louis Morel

  The author constructs a measure of foreign activity that takes into account the composition of foreign demand for Canadian exports. It has a number of interesting features.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, F, F1, F17

• Determinants of Financial Stress and Recovery during the Great Recession

  Staff Working Paper 2011-24 Joshua Aizenman, Gurnain Pasricha

  In this paper, we explore the link between stress in the domestic financial sector and the capital flight faced by countries in the 2008-9 global crisis. Both the timing of emergence of internal financial stress in developing economies, and the size of the peak-trough declines in the stock price indices was comparable to that in high income countries, indicating that there was no decoupling, even before Lehman Brothers’ demise.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, G, G1, G15