Staff Working Papers

• Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade

  Staff Working Paper 2017-17 Patrick Alexander

  Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F14, F6, F60

• Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity Meets the Zero Lower Bound

  Staff Working Paper 2017-16 Robert Amano, Stefano Gnocchi

  We add downward nominal wage rigidity to a standard New Keynesian model with sticky prices and wages, where the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is allowed to bind. We find that wage rigidity not only reduces the frequency of zero bound episodes but also mitigates the severity of corresponding recessions.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52

• Constrained Efficiency with Adverse Selection and Directed Search

  Staff Working Paper 2017-15 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini

  Constrained efficient allocation (CE) is characterized in a model of adverse selection and directed search (Guerrieri, Shimer, and Wright (2010)). CE is defined to be the allocation that maximizes welfare, the ex-ante utility of all agents, subject to the frictions of the environment.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83, E, E2, E24, G, G1, J, J3, J31, J6, J64

• Strategic Complementarities and Money Market Fund Liquidity Management

  Staff Working Paper 2017-14 Jonathan Witmer

  Following the financial crisis, there has been increased regulatory focus on the management of liquidity in mutual funds and, specifically, whether funds hold enough liquidity to guard against the potential for investor runs.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial Institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, G, G0, G01, G1, G18, G2, G20

• Markov‐Switching Three‐Pass Regression Filter

  Staff Working Paper 2017-13 Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon, Massimiliano Marcellino

  We introduce a new approach for the estimation of high-dimensional factor models with regime-switching factor loadings by extending the linear three-pass regression filter to settings where parameters can vary according to Markov processes.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, C5, C53

• Accounting for Real Exchange Rates Using Micro‐Data

  Staff Working Paper 2017-12 Mario J. Crucini, Anthony Landry

  The classical dichotomy predicts that all of the time-series variance in the aggregate real exchange rate is accounted for by non-traded goods in the consumer price index (CPI) basket because traded goods obey the Law of One Price. In stark contrast, Engel (1999) claimed the opposite: that traded goods accounted for all of the variance.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International financial markets, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): F, F3

• Anticipated Technology Shocks: A Re‐Evaluation Using Cointegrated Technologies

  Staff Working Paper 2017-11 Joel Wagner

  Two approaches have been taken in the literature to evaluate the relative importance of news shocks as a source of business cycle volatility. The first is an empirical approach that performs a structural vector autoregression to assess the relative importance of news shocks, while the second is a structural-model-based approach.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

• Small‐Sample Tests for Stock Return Predictability with Possibly Non‐Stationary Regressors and GARCH‐Type Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We develop a simulation-based procedure to test for stock return predictability with multiple regressors. The process governing the regressors is left completely free and the test procedure remains valid in small samples even in the presence of non-normalities and GARCH-type effects in the stock returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C3, C32, G, G1, G14

• Expropriation Risk and FDI in Developing Countries: Does Return of Capital Dominate Return on Capital?

  Staff Working Paper 2017-9 M. Akhtaruzzaman, Nathan Berg, Christopher Hajzler

  Previously reported effects of institutional quality and political risks on foreign direct investment (FDI) are mixed and, therefore, difficult to interpret. We present empirical evidence suggesting a relatively clear, statistically robust, and intuitive characterization.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Development economics, International financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D2, D23, F, F2, F21, F23

• Adoption Costs of Financial Innovation: Evidence from Italian ATM Cards

  Staff Working Paper 2017-8 Kim Huynh, Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, Gregor W. Smith, Angelika Welte

  The discrete choice to adopt a financial innovation affects a household’s exposure to inflation and transactions costs. We model this adoption decision as being subject to an unobserved cost.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, D, D1, D14, E, E4, E41