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This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s 2016 annual reassessment of potential output growth, which is projected to be 1.5 per cent over 2016–18 and 1.6 per cent in 2019–20. This projection is weaker than the one presented in the April 2015 Monetary Policy Report.
There is widespread agreement that, in the United States, higher house prices raise consumption via collateral or possibly wealth effects. The presence of similar channels in Canada would have important implications for monetary policy transmission.
Recently released data show downward trends for both the firm entry rate and the rate of new entrepreneurship since the early 1980s in Canada. This paper documents these trends and discusses potential explanations.
Estimating potential output and the output gap - the difference between actual output and its potential - is important for the proper conduct of monetary policy. However, the measurement and interpretation of potential output, and hence the output gap, is fraught with uncertainty, since it is unobservable.
This article examines whether combining forecasts of real GDP from different models can improve forecast accuracy and considers which model-combination methods provide the best performance. In line with previous literature, the authors find that combining forecasts generally improves forecast accuracy relative to various benchmarks. Unlike several previous studies, however, they find that, rather than assigning equal weights to each model, unequal weighting based on the past forecast performance of models tends to improve accuracy when forecasts across models are substantially different.
"Optimum Currency Areas as Applied to Canada and the United States" (with C. Dupasquier and R. Lalonde). In Exchange rates and monetary policy. Proceedings of a conference held by the Bank of Canada, October 1996, p.131–170. (1997).
"A Comparison of Twelve Macroeconomic Models of the Canadian Economy." (with Denise Côté, Jean Paul Lam, John Kuszczak, and Ying Liu) Journal of Policy Modeling 28 (5) July 2006.
"The Performance and Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in Models of the Canadian Economy" (with Denise Côté, Jean Paul Lam, John Kuszczak, and Ying Liu) Canadian Journal of Economics 37 (4) November 2004.
"Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?" (with A. Guay). Annales d'Économie et de Statistique (77) January-March 2005.
"Revisiting the case for flexible exchange rates in North America," (with John Murray and Lawrence Schembri). North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 14 (2), August 2003, p.207-240.
"Zones monétaires optimales : Revue de la littérature récente," (with Robert Lafrance) L'Actualité Économique. Décember 2000.
"Résultats empiriques multi-pays relatifs à limpact des cibles dinflation sur la crédibilité de la politique monétaire." (with David Tessier). Canadian Public Policy. Summer 2000.
"A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap." (with Chantal Dupasquier and Alain Guay). Journal of Macroeconomics, 21, 1999.
Other Publications
"Déflation et Politique Monétaire" (with David Tessier). L’Actualité économiques, September 2008.
"Optimum Currency Areas as Applied to Canada and the United States." (with C. Dupasquier and R. Lalonde). Money Affairs, 11 (1). Also published in Monetaria. 1998.
"Measurement of the Output Gaps: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada." (with Simon van Norden). BIS Conference Papers 4, 1997.
"Optimal Currency Areas: The Case of Mexico and the United States." (with René Lalonde). Money Affairs, 8 (2). Also published in Monetaria. 1995.
Other Research
Workshop papers on Taylor Rules held 25 October 2001 at the Bank of Canada (preliminary versions available).
