Econometric and statistical methods

• Markov‐Switching Three‐Pass Regression Filter

  Staff Working Paper 2017-13 Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon, Massimiliano Marcellino

  We introduce a new approach for the estimation of high-dimensional factor models with regime-switching factor loadings by extending the linear three-pass regression filter to settings where parameters can vary according to Markov processes.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, C5, C53

• The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Estimation of the Total Private Cost for Large Businesses

  Technical Report No. 110 Valéry Dongmo Jiongo

  The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods faced low response rates and outliers in sample data for two of its retailer strata: chains and large independent businesses. This technical report investigates whether it is appropriate to combine these two strata to produce more accurate estimates of the total private cost to large businesses of the main payment methods.

  Content Type(s): Technical Reports Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C8, C83

• The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Calibration for Single-Location Retailers

  Technical Report No. 109 Heng Chen, Rallye Shen

  Calibrated weights are created to (a) reduce the nonresponse bias; (b) reduce the coverage error; and (c) make the weighted estimates from the sample consistent with the target population in terms of certain key variables.

  Content Type(s): Technical Reports Topic(s): E-Money, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83

• The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Sampling

  Technical Report No. 108 Angelika Welte

  In 2015, the Bank of Canada undertook the large-scale Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods.

  Content Type(s): Technical Reports Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83

• Small‐Sample Tests for Stock Return Predictability with Possibly Non‐Stationary Regressors and GARCH‐Type Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We develop a simulation-based procedure to test for stock return predictability with multiple regressors. The process governing the regressors is left completely free and the test procedure remains valid in small samples even in the presence of non-normalities and GARCH-type effects in the stock returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C3, C32, G, G1, G14

• Adoption Costs of Financial Innovation: Evidence from Italian ATM Cards

  Staff Working Paper 2017-8 Kim Huynh, Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, Gregor W. Smith, Angelika Welte

  The discrete choice to adopt a financial innovation affects a household’s exposure to inflation and transactions costs. We model this adoption decision as being subject to an unobserved cost.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, D, D1, D14, E, E4, E41

• A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth

  Staff Working Paper 2017-2 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel

  This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C38, C5, C53, E, E3, E37

• Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-2 André Binette, Tony Chernis, Daniel de Munnik

  Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canada’s current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43

• 17 November 2016 Commodity Price Supercycles: What Are They and What Lies Ahead?

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 Bahattin Buyuksahin, Kun Mo, Konrad Zmitrowicz

  Because commodity prices help determine Canada’s terms of trade, employment, income and, ultimately, inflation, it is important to understand what causes them to fluctuate. Since the early 1900s, there have been four commodity price supercycles—which we define as extended periods of boom and bust that can take decades to complete. Now in its downswing phase, the current supercycle started after growth in China and other emerging-market economies in the mid-1990s resulted in an unexpected demand shock. The extent of this downswing depends on numerous factors that are presently uncertain.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, Q, Q1, Q4, Q41

• Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence from Micro- Level Data

  Staff Working Paper 2016-40 Dany Brouillette, Olena Kostyshyna, Natalia Kyui

  We assess the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in Canada using both firm- and worker-level microdata. In particular, we analyze employer-level administrative data from the Major Wage Settlements (MWS) and household-based survey data from the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID).

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J30