F01 - Global Outlook

• The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-13 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Louis Morel

  Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, F, F0, F01, Q, Q4, Q43

• The Case of Serial Disappointment

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-10 Justin-Damien Guénette, Nicholas Labelle, Martin Leduc, Lori Rennison

  Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Potential output, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E6, E66, F, F0, F01

• What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay

  The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31

• 19 November 2015 Is Slower Growth the New Normal in Advanced Economies?

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Abeer Reza, Subrata Sarker

  This article reviews and examines some of the main explanations for the slow growth that many advanced economies continue to experience seven years after the 2007–09 global financial crisis. Does this muted recovery reflect just a prolonged cycle in the aftermath of a financial crisis? Is it due to a structural inadequacy of demand leading to a long-lasting liquidity trap? Or is it largely supply side in nature, reflecting demographic and technological factors?

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F0, F01, F4, F43, O, O4, O40

• Prospects for Global Current Account Rebalancing

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-4 Kimberly Beaton, Carlos De Resende, René Lalonde, Stephen Snudden

  The authors use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model, a multi-country, multi-sector dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an active banking system (the BoC-GEM-FIN), to study the evolution of global current account balances following the recent global financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, F, F0, F01, F3, F32

• Introducing the Bank of Canada's Projection Model for the Global Economy

  Technical Report No. 99 Jeannine Bailliu, Patrick Blagrave, James Rossiter

  To complement its existing set of tools to analyze and forecast developments in the global economy, the Bank of Canada recently developed a version of the Global Projection Model (GPM) jointly with staff at the International Monetary Fund.

  Content Type(s): Technical Reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F0, F01