Louis Morel

louis-morel

Director

Louis Morel is the Director of the International Projection Division in the International Economic Analysis Department. His team is responsible for producing the quarterly global macroeconomic outlook and supporting its communication in the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report. Prior to joining the international department in 2013, he spent nine years in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. Mr. Morel holds a Masters in Economics from Queen’s University.

Contact

Louis Morel

Director
International Economic Analysis
International Projection Division

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Latest

May 11, 2017 Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Martin Leduc, Louis Morel
Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31

The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye

Staff Analytical Note 2016-13 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Louis Morel
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, F, F0, F01, Q, Q4, Q43

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation for Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2015-12 Mikael Khan, Louis Morel, Patrick Sabourin
This paper evaluates the usefulness of various measures of core inflation for the conduct of monetary policy. Traditional exclusion-based measures of core inflation are found to perform relatively poorly across a range of evaluation criteria, in part due to their inability to filter unanticipated transitory shocks.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52

May 14, 2015 The Slowdown in Global Trade

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Michael Francis, Louis Morel
Global trade growth has been weak during the period following the 2007–09 financial crisis. This is an important development for Canada, given the Canadian economy's high degree of openness to trade. This article investigates some of the factors behind the slowdown in global trade and finds that the weakness of global demand and its changing composition, increased protectionism and diminishing incentives to expand trade have all played a role. Some of these factors are likely to have only a temporary effect on trade growth, but others could be more long-lasting.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4, F6

Sluggish Exports in Advanced Economies: How Much Is Due to Demand?

Staff Discussion Paper 2015-3 Louis Morel
Exports in advanced economies have been relatively sluggish since 2011, growing at a much slower pace than observed before the global financial crisis.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4

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Other

Refereed Journals

  • "Relation entre le taux de change et les exportations nettes : test de la condition Marshall-Lerner pour le Canada"
    (with Benoit Perron). L'Actualité économique (December 2003), Vol.79, No.4, p. 481-502. (in french only).

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Bank Publications

Education

  • M.A., Queen's University (2004)
  • B. Sc. (Honours), Université de Montréal (2003)

Research Interests

  • macroeconomics
  • business cycle fluctuations

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