Kun Mo

kun-mo

Senior Economist

Kun Mo is a senior economist of the Emerging Markets Division in the International Economics Analysis Department. In this role he performs current analysis and makes short-term forecasts for economic developments in China and other major emerging market economies. He also participates in researches related to developments in emerging market economies. He obtained his Masters in Economics from the University of Toronto.

Contact

Kun Mo

Senior Economist
International Economic Analysis
Emerging Markets Division

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Latest

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018

Staff Analytical Note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk
This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

November 17, 2016 Commodity Price Supercycles: What Are They and What Lies Ahead?

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 Bahattin Buyuksahin, Kun Mo, Konrad Zmitrowicz
Because commodity prices help determine Canada’s terms of trade, employment, income and, ultimately, inflation, it is important to understand what causes them to fluctuate. Since the early 1900s, there have been four commodity price supercycles—which we define as extended periods of boom and bust that can take decades to complete. Now in its downswing phase, the current supercycle started after growth in China and other emerging-market economies in the mid-1990s resulted in an unexpected demand shock. The extent of this downswing depends on numerous factors that are presently uncertain.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, Q, Q1, Q4, Q41

Low for Longer? Why the Global Oil Market in 2014 Is Not Like 1986

Staff Analytical Note 2016-11 Bahattin Buyuksahin, Reinhard Ellwanger, Kun Mo, Konrad Zmitrowicz
In the second half of 2014, oil prices experienced a sharp decline, falling more than 50 per cent between June 2014 and January 2015. A cursory glance at this oil price crash suggests similarities to developments in 1986, when the price of oil declined by more than 50 per cent, initiating an episode of relatively low oil prices that lasted for more than a decade.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43

The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-7 Mark Kruger, Kun Mo, Benjamin Sawatzky
The Chinese housing market has grown rapidly following its liberalization in the 1990s, generating significant economic activity and demand for base metals. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of the Chinese housing market and quantify its importance for the overall Chinese economy and its linkages to base metal prices.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): Q, Q3, Q31, R, R3, R31

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Education

  • English B.A. (Economics) – Queen’s University
  • M.A. (Economics) – University of Toronto

Research Interests

  • English International
  • Economics Macroeconomics

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