Central bank research

• How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-11 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  Monetary policy decisions need to consider all potential outcomes, not just the most likely path for the economy. This is especially true in the presence of elevated financial system vulnerabilities, which lead to increased downside risks for future growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01

• February 15, 2018 Anchoring Expectations: Canada’s Approach to Price Stability

  Remarks Lawrence Schembri Manitoba Association for Business Economists Winnipeg, Manitoba

  Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri examines the success of the Bank’s monetary policy framework and explains the review being undertaken before its renewal in 2021.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Fiscal Policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework

• February 8, 2018 At the Crossroads: Innovation and Inclusive Growth

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins G7 Symposium on Innovation and Inclusive Growth Montebello, Quebec

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses technological progress and how policy-makers can harness it for economic growth that benefits everyone.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Central bank research, International topics, Labour markets, Market structure and pricing, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments

• How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?

  Staff Working Paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland

  We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary Policy, Monetary policy communications, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58

• Competing Currencies in the Laboratory

  Staff Working Paper 2017-53 Janet Hua Jiang, Cathy Zhang

  We investigate competition between two intrinsically worthless currencies as a result of decentralized interactions between human subjects. We design a laboratory experiment based on a simple two-country, two-currency search model to study factors that affect circulation patterns and equilibrium selection.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital Currencies JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40

• November 15, 2017 Embracing Uncertainty in the Conduct of Monetary Policy

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Money Marketeers of New York University New York, New York

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins explains how uncertainty is factored into monetary policy decisions.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary Policy, Monetary policy implementation, Transmission of monetary policy, Uncertainty and monetary policy

• Changes in Monetary Regimes and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: Narrative Evidence from Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2017-39 Julien Champagne, Rodrigo Sekkel

  We use narrative evidence along with a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections from 1974 to 2015 to construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks and estimate the effects of monetary policy in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rate regimes, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58

• September 14, 2017 Bank of Canada Workshop “Monetary Policy Framework Issues: Toward the 2021 Inflation-Target Renewal”

  Remarks Lawrence Schembri Ottawa, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri opens the Bank’s Monetary Policy Framework Issues: Toward the 2021 Inflation-Target Renewal workshop.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy framework

• September 14, 2017 Monetary Policy Framework Issues: Toward the 2021 Inflation-Target Renewal

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins reviews key themes discussed by participants at the workshop “Monetary Policy Framework Issues: Toward the 2021 Inflation-Target Renewal”.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial system regulation and policies, Fiscal Policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework

• How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models

  Staff Working Paper 2017-32 Thibaut Duprey, Benjamin Klaus

  This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15