Domestic demand and components
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Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014–2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey
The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy is a topic of considerable debate. In this paper, we examine the response of U.S. consumers to the 2014–2015 negative oil price shock using representative survey data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey. -
March 13, 2018 Today’s Labour Market and the Future of Work
Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the untapped potential in Canada’s labour market and how it extends into the workforce of tomorrow. -
Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions
Resource shares, defined as the fraction of total household spending going to each person in a household, are important for assessing individual material well-being, inequality and poverty. They are difficult to identify because consumption is measured typically at the household level, and many goods are jointly consumed, so that individual-level consumption in multi-person households is not directly observed. -
A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment
Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions. -
May 11, 2017 Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies
Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging. -
April 12, 2017 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR. -
March 21, 2017 Getting Down to Business: Investment and the Economic Outlook
Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the factors affecting business investment and the implications for the economic outlook. -
October 6, 2016 Economic Trends and Monetary Policy
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins talks about the major trends of the Canadian economy and how they affect monetary policy. -
The Case of Serial Disappointment
Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors. -
Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models
This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy.