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Toward 2021

Reviewing the Monetary Policy Framework.

Canada’s Vertical $10 Note

Explore and share the $10 polymer bank note featuring Viola Desmond, which begins circulating in late 2018.

Upcoming changes to legal tender status for older bank notes

Find out what removing legal tender status means and which bank notes are affected.

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Monetary Policy Report – April 2018

The Bank’s new forecast calls for economic growth of 2.0 percent this year, 2.1 per cent in 2019 and 1.8 per cent in 2020.

Digital Currencies and Fintech

Understanding digital currencies and related financial technologies is an important part of our research agenda.

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Yellowknife Chamber of Commerce - Speech (Webcasts)

Canada’s Economy and Household Debt: How Big Is the Problem? - Stephen S. Poloz, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, speaks to the Yellowknife Chamber of Commerce. (12:45 (Mountain Time), 14:45 (Eastern Time) approx.)

Banking and Financial Statistics

A compilation of banking and financial indicators, including the Bank of Canada’s assets and liabilities, credit and monetary aggregates, chartered banks data and selected financial market statistics.

Tony Chernis

Senior Economist

Tony Chernis is a senior economist in the Regional Analysis Division of the Canadian Economic Analysis department. Based at the Regional Office for British Columbia and the Yukon, his work includes contributing to the Business Outlook Survey, conducting economic analysis, and developing nowcasting models. Tony holds a master’s degree in economics from Simon Fraser University.

Latest

A Three‐Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth

Staff Discussion Paper 2017-8 Tony Chernis, Calista Cheung, Gabriella Velasco

This paper estimates a three‐frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months).

Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37, R, R1, R11

A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth

Staff Working Paper 2017-2 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel

This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data.

Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C38, C5, C53, E, E3, E37

Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE

Staff Discussion Paper 2017-2 André Binette, Tony Chernis, Daniel de Munnik

Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canada’s current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative.

Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43

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