E52 - Monetary Policy

• How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-11 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  Monetary policy decisions need to consider all potential outcomes, not just the most likely path for the economy. This is especially true in the presence of elevated financial system vulnerabilities, which lead to increased downside risks for future growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01

• A Policy Framework for E-Money: A Report on Bank of Canada Research

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-5 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Francisco Rivadeneyra

  We present a policy framework for electronic money and payments. The framework poses a set of positive questions related to the areas of responsibility of central banks: payments systems, monetary policy and financial stability. The questions are posed to four broad forms of e-money: privately or publicly issued, and with centralized or decentralized verification of transactions. This framework is intended to help evaluate the trade-offs that central banks face in the decision to issue new forms of e-money.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Digital Currencies, Monetary Policy, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E5, E51, E52, E58

• Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability?

  Staff Working Paper 2018-17 José Dorich, Nicholas Labelle, Vadym Lepetyuk, Rhys R. Mendes

  Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model

  Staff Working Paper 2018-11 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel

  This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41

• How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?

  Staff Working Paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland

  We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary Policy, Monetary policy communications, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58

• The Impacts of Monetary Policy Statements

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-22 Bruno Feunou, Corey Garriott, James Kyeong, Raisa Leiderman

  In this note, we find that market participants react to an unexpected change in the tone of Canadian monetary policy statements.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates, Monetary policy communications, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12

• Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-21 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev

  This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary Policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, E37, E5, E52

• November 16, 2017 An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 José Dorich, Abeer Reza, Subrata Sarker

  The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F0, F01, F4, F43, O, O4

• November 16, 2017 An Initial Assessment of Changes to the Bank of Canada’s Framework for Market Operations

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 Kaetlynd McRae, Sean Durr, David Manzo

  The Bank of Canada made changes to several of the tools that make up its framework for operations and liquidity provision. These changes came about after a comprehensive re-view of the framework and are designed to help the Bank better achieve its objectives of reinforcing the target for the overnight rate and supporting the well-functioning of Cana-dian financial markets under normal market conditions.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01, G1, G18

• Communicating Uncertainty in Monetary Policy

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-14 Sharon Kozicki, Jill Vardy

  While central banks cannot provide complete foresight with respect to their future policy actions, it is in the interests of both central banks and market participants that central banks be transparent about their reaction functions and how they may evolve in response to economic developments, shocks, and risks to their outlooks.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary Policy, Monetary policy communications, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65