40th New Brunswick general election

40th New Brunswick general election

On or before October 17, 2022
49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick 25 seats needed for a majority
LIB Leader Blaine Higgs Kevin Vickers Party Progressive Conservative Liberal Leader since October 22, 2016 April 24, 2019 Leader's seat Quispamsis Running in TBA Last election 22 seats, 31.89% 21 seats, 37.80% Current seats 22 21 Seats needed 3 4   PANB Leader Kris Austin David Coon Party People's Alliance Green Leader since June 5, 2010 September 22, 2012 Leader's seat Fredericton-Grand Lake Fredericton South Last election 3 seats, 12.58% 3 seats, 11.88% Current seats 3 3 Seats needed 22 22
Incumbent Premier Blaine Higgs Progressive Conservative

The 40th New Brunswick general election is scheduled to take place on or before October 17, 2022. The October 17 date is the result of an amendment made to the Legislative Assembly Act in 2017, causing an election to be held every four years, on the third Monday in October, beginning after the planned September 22, 2018 election. However, due to the current minority situation in the legislature, an election could occur sooner.

Background

The 2018 provincial election resulted in the first minority government in New Brunswick since the 1920 provincial election. On election night, Blaine Higgs claimed victory for the Progressive Conservative Party, saying his team had received a mandate from New Brunswickers; however, Brian Gallant stated his intention to remain in office by securing support on a vote-by-vote basis. The following day, Gallant met with the lieutenant governor, Jocelyne Roy-Vienneau, and received permission to continue in office and attempt to seek the confidence of the legislative assembly. On September 27, 2018, Higgs met with the lieutenant governor and was told that if Gallant was unable to secure the confidence of the house, he would be called on to form government. Shortly afterwards, Higgs called on Gallant to either resign or immediately recall the legislature: “[Gallant] does not have a mandate to govern and he is prolonging the inevitable, and it’s unfortunate that that’s the case. If he refuses to resign, he should do what is right for New Brunswick and immediately call the legislature back, so the province has a stable and functioning government.”

After the election, both Kris Austin of the People's Alliance and David Coon of the Green Party were noncommittal in their support. Austin pledged to work with any party willing to work with him, but said his party would not sacrifice its “values and ideals” to do so. Coon said his caucus would take time to figure out how they would align themselves, but would not be able to work with anyone uncommitted to rights for linguistic minorities or combatting climate change. Gallant opted to pursue a partnership with the Green Party, ruling out any arrangement with the Progressive Conservative Party or People's Alliance because they were perceived as not sharing the Liberal Party’s “values.” Higgs initially ruled out any formal agreements with other parties, but later said that a four-year agreement like in British Columbia would be ideal for stability.

On September 28, 2018, Austin agreed to provide stability for a Progressive Conservative minority government on a “bill-by-bill basis” for 18 months. Austin said, “We want to give New Brunswickers some confidence that, as we’ve said all along and we continue to say, we will work with Mr. Higgs and the PC party to go on a bill-by-bill basis to promote stability in government for 18 months.” Higgs said he spoke to Austin about stabilizing the government but made no formal agreement. On October 10, 2018, Coon announced that the Green Party would not formally side with either party. When the legislative assembly sat on October 23, 2018, the Liberal member from Restigouche-Chaleur, Daniel Guitard, was acclaimed Speaker of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick, thereby reducing the government caucus to 20 seats. On November 1, Coon indicated that his party would vote for the throne speech.

On November 2, 2018, the legislative assembly voted 25-23 for a motion, introduced by the Progressive Conservatives, to amend the throne speech to declare no confidence in the government. Subsequently, Gallant indicated his intention to resign the premiership and recommend to the lieutenant governor that Higgs be given the mandate to form government: “I will go see the lieutenant governor at her earliest convenience to inform her that I will be resigning as premier, and I will humbly suggest to her honour to allow the leader of the Conservative Party to attempt to form a government and attempt to gain the confidence of the house.” People's Alliance leader Kris Austin said he would work with the new government “in the areas we agree on,” and reiterated his promise to support the Progressive Conservatives on confidence votes for a period of 18 months. Green Party leader David Coon said he would start working with the Tories in an attempt to ensure his party's issues were on the government's agenda.

On November 15, 2018, Brian Gallant announced his resignation as leader of the New Brunswick Liberal Association. Gallant said he planned to remain as opposition leader until the party chooses his replacement: “In these uncharted waters of a minority government I will stay at the helm of the party to provide some stability while the party chooses its next leader for the next election.”

On November 20, 2018, the lieutenant governor delivered the second speech from the throne in a month. During debate on the speech, Brian Gallant introduced an amendment to the throne speech motion calling for the fracking moratorium to stay in place. The government responded with a sub-amendment that would exempt “communities in and around the town of Sussex.” On November 30, the sub-amendment passed 26-22, with all three People's Alliance members and lone Liberal Gerry Lowe voting with the government. The amendment, with that new language, also passed 26-22, and the main motion, a confidence vote in the Blaine Higgs’ government, passed 25-23. On the final vote, Lowe voted with his party against the government.

On March 15, 2019, Kevin Vickers announced he would run to succeed Brian Gallant as leader of the New Brunswick Liberal Association. On April 16, 2019, after the only other contender, René Ephestion, dropped out of the race, the Liberal Party’s executive board acclaimed Vickers on the recommendation of the leadership convention’s steering committee. Vickers assumed the party leadership effective April 26, 2019

Opinion polls

Polling Firm	Last Day of Polling	Link	PC	Liberal	PA	Green	NDP
Narrative Research	June 13, 2019	HTML	42	25	6	18	8
MQO Research	May 6, 2019	PDF	40	30	5	20	3
26 April 2019	Kevin Vickers becomes leader of the Liberal Party
Corporate Research Associates	February 19, 2019	PDF	42	29	9	14	6
MQO Research	February 10, 2019	PDF	46	32	8	11	3
Mainstreet Research	January 15, 2019	HTML	40.2	27.3	12.4	15	4.5
Corporate Research Associates	November 24, 2018	PDF	30	35	12	17	6
9 November 2018	Blaine Higgs is sworn in as Premier of New Brunswick leading a PC government
MQO Research	November 5, 2018	PDF	36	29	11	21	3
2 November 2018	Brian Gallant resigns as Premier after his Liberal minority government loses a non-confidence vote
Mainstreet Research	November 2, 2018	HTML	33.7	33.7	12.7	15.7	3
Election 2018	September 24, 2018	HTML	31.89	37.80	12.58	11.88	5.01

External links

• Elections New Brunswick