43rd Quebec general election

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43rd Quebec general election
← 2018 On or before October 3, 2022 (2022-10-03)
125 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  François Legault2011.jpg Pierre Arcand.jpg
Leader François Legault Pierre Arcand
Party Coalition Avenir Québec Liberal
Leader since November 4, 2011 October 5, 2018
Interim until 2020
Leader's seat L'Assomption Mont-Royal–Outremont
Last election 74 seats, 37.42% 31 seats, 24.82%
Current seats 75 28
  Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois et Manon Massé.jpg
PQ
Leader Manon Massé and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (as spokespeople)[note 1] Pascal Bérubé
Party Québec solidaire Parti Québécois
Leader since May 21, 2017 October 9, 2018
Interim until TBD
Leader's seat Massé: Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques
Nadeau-Dubois: Gouin 		Matane-Matapédia
Last election 10 seats, 16.10% 10 seats, 17.06%
Current seats 10 9
Incumbent Premier

François Legault
Coalition Avenir Québec



The 43rd Quebec general election is scheduled to take place on or before October 3, 2022 to elect the members of the National Assembly of Quebec. Under the province's fixed election date law, passed in 2013, "the general election following the end of a Legislature shall be held on the first Monday of October of the fourth calendar year following the year that includes the last day of the previous Legislature",[2] setting the date for October 3, 2022. However, the act does not fetter the discretion of the Lieutenant Governor of Quebec to dissolve the legislature before that time, in accordance with the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.

Background[edit]

The 2018 general election resulted in a victory for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) led by François Legault won 74 of 125 seats, giving the party a majority and unseating the Philippe Couillard's Liberal Party after a single term in office. Couillard would subsequently resign as Liberal leader and be replaced on an interim basis by Pierre Arcand until his successor is chosen.[3][4]

Both the Parti Québécois and Québec solidaire won 10 seats each, less than the 12 seats needed for official party status; Parti Québécois leader Jean-François Lisée, defeated in his bid for re-election, would subsequently resign as party leader and be replaced on an interim basis by Pascal Bérubé until his successor is chosen.[5][6]

Current standings[edit]

Summary of the current standings of the
National Assembly of Quebec
Party Party leader Seats
2018 Current
Coalition Avenir Québec François Legault 74 75
Liberal Pierre Arcand (interim) 31 28
Québec solidaire Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois
Manon Massé 		10 10
Parti Québécois Pascal Bérubé (interim) 10 9
  Independent 0 2
  Vacant 1
Total 125 125

Timeline[edit]

2018[edit]

2019[edit]

2020[edit]

Electoral Reform[edit]

Québec's 2022 Electoral reform Referendum
(government proposal)
Do you agree with replacing the first-past-the-post electoral system by the mixed electoral system with regional compensation set out in the Act to establish a new electoral system?
French: Êtes-vous en accord avec le remplacement du mode de scrutin majoritaire uninominal à un tour par le mode de scrutin mixte avec compensation régionale prévu par la Loi établissant un nouveau mode de scrutin?
DateOctober 3, 2022 (2022-10-03)

François Legault was elected on a promise to reform the electoral system within a year of his victory. On 25 September 2019, Minister of Justice Sonia Lebel presented Bill 39, An Act to establish a new electoral system which aims to replace the First-part-the-post electoral system in favour of a mixed-member proportional representation system. The Bill has not yet been debated in parliament.

According to the bill, the National Assembly would keep 125 members, 80 of which would be elected by receiving a plurality of votes in a single-member district (as usual), while the remaining 45 members would be chosen relative to a new party list vote, according to their order in the regional party list. All 16 regions of Québec would be guaranteed at least one list MP. The system would thus be similar to the Additional member system of the Scottish and Welsh Assemblies created in 1999.

However, the reform wouldn't affect the 43rd general election likely to be held in 2022, as the bill ties the reform with a popular approval in a referendum, to be held on the same day as the general election.[12] Should this referendum be successful, then the first legislature to be elected under mixed-member proportional would be the 44th, in October 2026 at the latest.

Opinion polls[edit]

Polling organisation Last date of polling Source CAQ Liberal PQ QS Other Sample size Margin of error Lead
Mainstreet July 2, 2019 HTML 47.8 21.7 10.5 14.5 5.6 871 ±3.32% 26.1
Forum June 12, 2019 PDF 46 16 13 19 6 1,407–71 ±2.5% 24
Leger May 21, 2019 HTML 46 23 14 13 4 979 ±3% 23
Mainstreet March 21, 2019 PDF 45.3 22.3 10.4 14.7 7.2 940 ±3.20% 23.0
Leger March 11, 2019 PDF 44 21 15 15 5 1,014 ±3.08% 23
Leger January 28, 2019 PDF 42 22 18 15 3 1,007 ±3.09% 20
Mainstreet January 18, 2019 PDF 44.5 26.1 8.9 15.8 4.8 979 ±3.13% 18.4
Mainstreet November 7, 2018 HTML 39.4 22.8 14.1 19.0 4.7 896 ±3.27% 16.6
2018 election October 1, 2018 37.42 24.82 17.06 16.10 4.60 4,033,538 12.6

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Québec solidaire designates Massé and Nadeau-Dubois as co-spokespeople. The party's power is held by the general meetings of the members and a board of 16 directors; the de jure leader recognized by the Chief Electoral Officer of Quebec (DGE) is Gaétan Châteauneuf.[1]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Québec solidaire". Élections Québec. Retrieved June 20, 2017.
  2. ^ An Act to amend the Election Act for the purpose of establishing fixed-date elections, L.Q. 2013, c. 13, s. 3
  3. ^ a b Hinkson, Kamila (October 4, 2018). "Philippe Couillard steps down, making way for a 'new generation' of Quebec Liberals". CBC News. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  4. ^ a b Authier, Philip (October 5, 2018). "New interim Liberal leader Pierre Arcand takes aim at CAQ and QS". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  5. ^ a b Stober, Eric; Laframboise, Kalina (October 1, 2018). "Parti Québécois Leader Jean-François Lisée steps down after losing own riding of Rosemont". Global News. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  6. ^ a b "Pascal Bérubé named interim Parti Québécois leader". CBC News. October 9, 2018. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  7. ^ "Guy Ouellette expelled from Liberal caucus". CBC News. October 5, 2018. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  8. ^ "'Destroyed' by investigation, Guy Ouellette sues Quebec government for $550K". CBC News. November 22, 2018. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  9. ^ "Roberval elects CAQ candidate Nancy Guillemette". CTV News. December 11, 2018. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  10. ^ "'They've lost their way': PQ MNA Catherine Fournier quits party". CTV Montreal. March 11, 2019. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  11. ^ Authier, Philip (2019-08-31). "Former Liberal minister Sébastien Proulx announces he's leaving politics". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved 2019-09-12.
  12. ^ "Bill 39 – An act to establish a new electoral system". National Assembly of Québec. Retrieved 2019-10-22.
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