Q1 - Agriculture

• Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities

  Staff Working Paper 2018-4 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou

  It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic activity.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F4, F44, Q, Q1, Q11, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43

• Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?

  Staff Working Paper 2017-35 Christiane Baumeister, Reinhard Ellwanger, Lutz Kilian

  It is commonly believed that the response of the price of corn ethanol (and hence of the price of corn) to shifts in biofuel policies operates in part through market expectations and shifts in storage demand, yet to date it has proved difficult to measure these expectations and to empirically evaluate this view.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): Q, Q1, Q18, Q2, Q28, Q4, Q42, Q5, Q58
• November 17, 2016

  Commodity Price Supercycles: What Are They and What Lies Ahead?

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 Bahattin Buyuksahin, Kun Mo, Konrad Zmitrowicz

  Because commodity prices help determine Canada’s terms of trade, employment, income and, ultimately, inflation, it is important to understand what causes them to fluctuate. Since the early 1900s, there have been four commodity price supercycles—which we define as extended periods of boom and bust that can take decades to complete. Now in its downswing phase, the current supercycle started after growth in China and other emerging-market economies in the mid-1990s resulted in an unexpected demand shock. The extent of this downswing depends on numerous factors that are presently uncertain.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, Q, Q1, Q4, Q41

• Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?

  Staff Working Paper 2013-52 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian

  U.S. retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation have been quite modest even after the change in U.S. biofuel policies in 2006. In contrast, increases in the real prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice received by U.S. farmers have been more substantial and can be linked in part to increases in the real price of oil.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q1, Q11, Q4, Q42, Q43

• The Financialization of Food?

  Staff Working Paper 2013-39 Valentina G. Bruno, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Michel A. Robe

  Commodity-equity and cross-commodity return co-movements rose dramatically after the 2008 financial crisis. This development took place following what has been dubbed the “financialization” of commodity markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q1, Q11, Q13

• The Impact of Emerging Asia on Commodity Prices

  Staff Working Paper 2007-55 Sylvie Morin, Calista Cheung

  Over the past 5 years, real energy and non-energy commodity prices have trended sharply higher. These relative price movements have had important implications for inflation and economic activity in both Canada and the rest of the world. China has accounted for the bulk of incremental demand for oil and many base metals over this period.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, F, F4, O, O1, O19, Q, Q1, Q11

• Food Aid Delivery, Food Security and Aggregate Welfare in a Small Open Economy: Theory and Evidence

  Staff Working Paper 1998-1 Patrick Osakwe

  A small-open-economy model is developed to examine how the method of food aid disbursement affects labor employment, food security and aggregate welfare, in recipient countries, in an environment in which private sector firms pay efficiency wages to induce effort. Two forms of food aid delivery are considered: first is project food aid, under which food […]

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Development economics JEL Code(s): J, J4, O, O1, Q, Q1