C0 - General

• Tail Index Estimation: Quantile-Driven Threshold Selection

  Staff Working Paper 2019-28 Jon Danielsson, Lerby Ergun, Laurens de Haan, Casper G. de Vries

  The most extreme events, such as economic crises, are rare but often have a great impact. It is difficult to precisely determine the likelihood of such events because the sample is small.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58

• Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-34 Andrew Lee-Poy

  In this note, I use two multivariate frequency filtering approaches to characterize the Canadian financial cycle by capturing fluctuations in the underlying variables with respect to a long-term trend. The first approach is a dynamically weighted composite, and the second is a stochastic cycle model.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C13, C14, C18, C3, C32, C5, C51, C52, E, E3, E32, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18

• Challenges in Implementing Worst-Case Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 2018-47 Jon Danielsson, Lerby Ergun, Casper G. de Vries

  Worst-case analysis is used among financial regulators in the wake of the recent financial crisis to gauge the tail risk. We provide insight into worst-case analysis and provide guidance on how to estimate it. We derive the bias for the non-parametric heavy-tailed order statistics and contrast it with the semi-parametric extreme value theory (EVT) approach.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58

• Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey

  When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44, E47, E5, E58, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18

• Household Risk Assessment Model

  Technical Report No. 106 Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts

  Household debt can be an important source of vulnerability to the financial system. This technical report describes the Household Risk Assessment Model (HRAM) that has been developed at the Bank of Canada to stress test household balance sheets at the individual level.

  Content Type(s): Technical Reports Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, C63, C65, D, D0, D1, D14

• The Canadian Debt-Strategy Model: An Overview of the Principal Elements

  Staff Discussion Paper 2011-3 David Bolder, Simon Deeley

  The Canadian Debt Strategy Model helps debt managers determine their optimal financing strategy. The model’s code and documentation are available to the public.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Debt Management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Fiscal Policy JEL Code(s): C, C0, G, G1, G11, G17, H, H6, H63

• Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity

  Staff Working Paper 2010-12 Fuchun Li, Pierre St-Amant

  This paper examines empirically the impact of financial stress on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in Canada. The model used is a threshold vector autoregression in which a regime change occurs if financial stress conditions cross a critical threshold.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, E, E5, E50, G, G0, G01

• Market Expectations and Option Prices: Evidence for the Can$/US$ Exchange Rate

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-2 Alejandro García, Andrei Prokopiw

  Security prices contain valuable information that can be used to make a wide variety of economic decisions. To extract this information, a model is required that relates market prices to the desired information, and that ideally can be implemented using timely and low-cost methods.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C0, C00, C02, G, G1, G13

• Examining Simple Joint Macroeconomic and Term-Structure Models: A Practitioner's Perspective

  Staff Working Paper 2007-49 David Bolder, Shudan Liu

  The primary objective of this paper is to compare a variety of joint models of the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1

• Optimization in a Simulation Setting: Use of Function Approximation in Debt Strategy Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 2007-13 David Bolder, Tiago Rubin

  The stochastic simulation model suggested by Bolder (2003) for the analysis of the federal government's debt-management strategy provides a wide variety of useful information. It does not, however, assist in determining an optimal debt-management strategy for the government in its current form.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Debt Management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Fiscal Policy JEL Code(s): C, C0, C1, C14, C15, C5, C51, C52, C6, C61, C65, E, E6, G, G1, H, H6, H63