C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

• Bootstrapping Mean Squared Errors of Robust Small-Area Estimators: Application to the Method-of-Payments Data

  Staff Working Paper 2018-28 Valéry Dongmo Jiongo, Pierre Nguimkeu

  This paper proposes a new bootstrap procedure for mean squared errors of robust small-area estimators. We formally prove the asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap method and examine its finite sample performance through Monte Carlo simulations.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C15, C8, C83, E, E4, E41

• State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models

  Staff Working Paper 2018-14 Luis Uzeda

  Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, C5, C51, C53

• Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey

  When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44, E47, E5, E58, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18

• Bootstrap Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency with Multiple Portfolio Groupings

  Staff Working Paper 2014-51 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We propose double bootstrap methods to test the mean-variance efficiency hypothesis when multiple portfolio groupings of the test assets are considered jointly rather than individually.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, C15, G, G1, G12

• Removal of the Unwinding Provisions in the Automated Clearing Settlement System: A Risk Assessment

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-4 Nicholas Labelle, Varya Taylor

  A default in the Automated Clearing Settlement System (ACSS) occurs when a Direct Clearer is unable to settle its final obligation.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, G, G0, G01, G2, G3

• Multivariate Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency and Spanning with a Large Number of Assets and Time-Varying Covariances

  Staff Working Paper 2013-16 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We develop a finite-sample procedure to test for mean-variance efficiency and spanning without imposing any parametric assumptions on the distribution of model disturbances.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, C3, C33, G, G1, G11, G12

• A Framework to Assess Vulnerabilities Arising from Household Indebtedness Using Microdata

  Staff Discussion Paper 2012-3 Ramdane Djoudad

  Rising levels of household indebtedness have created concerns about the vulnerabilities of households to adverse economic shocks and the impact on financial stability. To assess these risks, the author presents a formal stress-testing framework that uses microdata to simulate how various economic shocks affect the distribution of the debt-service ratio (DSR) for the household sector.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C3, C31, D, D1, D14, E, E5, E51

• What Matters in Determining Capital Surcharges for Systemically Important Financial Institutions?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2011-9 Céline Gauthier, Toni Gravelle, Xuezhi Liu, Moez Souissi

  One way of internalizing the externalities that each individual bank imposes on the rest of the financial system is to impose capital surcharges on them in line with their systemic importance.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C8, C81, E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21

• Understanding Systemic Risk: The Trade-Offs between Capital, Short-Term Funding and Liquid Asset Holdings

  Staff Working Paper 2010-29 Céline Gauthier, Zhongfang He, Moez Souissi

  We offer a multi-period systemic risk assessment framework with which to assess recent liquidity and capital regulatory requirement proposals in a holistic way.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C8, C81, E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21

• Macroprudential Regulation and Systemic Capital Requirements

  Staff Working Paper 2010-4 Céline Gauthier, Alfred Lehar, Moez Souissi

  In the aftermath of the financial crisis, there is interest in reforming bank regulation such that capital requirements are more closely linked to a bank's contribution to the overall risk of the financial system. In our paper we compare alternative mechanisms for allocating the overall risk of a banking system to its member banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C8, C81, E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21