Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
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Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?
U.S. retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation have been quite modest even after the change in U.S. biofuel policies in 2006. In contrast, increases in the real prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice received by U.S. farmers have been more substantial and can be linked in part to increases in the real price of oil. -
The Financialization of Food?
Commodity-equity and cross-commodity return co-movements rose dramatically after the 2008 financial crisis. This development took place following what has been dubbed the “financialization” of commodity markets. -
Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach
The U.S. Energy Information Administration regularly publishes short-term forecasts of the price of crude oil. -
Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis
Notwithstanding a resurgence in research on out-of-sample forecasts of the price of oil in recent years, there is one important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date. -
A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market
We examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in North America. This production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil-recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable. -
What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices
Forecasts of the quarterly real price of oil are routinely used by international organizations and central banks worldwide in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook, yet little is known about how best to generate such forecasts. Our analysis breaks new ground in several dimensions.