O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth

• Technology Adoption in Input-Output Networks

  Staff Working Paper 2019-51 Xintong Han, Lei Xu

  We study how input-output networks affect the speed of technology adoption. In particular, we model the decision to adopt the programming language Python 3 by software packages. Python 3 provides advanced features but is not backward compatible with Python 2, which implies it comes with adoption costs.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Economic models, Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, L, L2, L23, L8, L86, O, O1, O14, O3, O33

• The Cyber Incident Landscape

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-32 Nikil Chande, Dennis Yanchus

  The Canadian financial system is vulnerable to cyber threats. But for many firms, cyber risk is difficult to quantify. We examine public information on past cyber incidents to better understand the current risk landscape and find that a holistic view is needed to fully grasp the nature of this risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G2, G28, M, M1, M15, O, O3, O33, O38

• Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt

  Staff Discussion Paper 2019-12 Stephen S. Poloz

  This paper discusses three long-term forces that are acting on the global economy and their implications for companies and policy-makers.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics, Monetary Policy, Trade Integration, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E6, E63, F, F0, F02, F1, F15, F5, F53, F6, H, O, O1, O11, O3, O33

• Technological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution

  Staff Discussion Paper 2019-11 Stephen S. Poloz

  This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.”

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Monetary policy framework, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E3, O, O1, O11, O3, O33

• 2018 Bitcoin Omnibus Survey: Awareness and Usage

  Staff Discussion Paper 2019-10 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson

  The Bank of Canada continues to use the Bitcoin Omnibus Survey (BTCOS) to monitor trends in Canadians’ awareness, ownership and use of Bitcoin. The most recent iteration was conducted in late 2018, following an 85 percent decline in the price of Bitcoin throughout the year.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital Currencies and Fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4, O, O5, O51

• Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Peter Selcuk

  This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

• Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper

  Staff Discussion Paper 2019-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Doga Bilgin, Kun Mo, Kurt Niquidet, Benjamin Sawatzky

  Given that China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, it is reasonable to expect that any significant change in Chinese copper consumption will have an impact on the global market.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): O, O1, O13, O14, Q, Q0, Q02

• The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon?

  Staff Working Paper 2019-2 Jeffrey Mollins, Pierre St-Amant

  We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O4, O41, O47

• Financial Development Beyond the Formal Financial Market

  Staff Working Paper 2018-49 Lin Shao

  This paper studies the effects of financial development, taking into account both formal and informal financing. Using cross-country firm-level data, we document that informal financing is utilized more by rich countries than poor countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, O, O1, O17, O4, O47

• Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess

  This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4