Asset Pricing

• Model Uncertainty and Wealth Distribution

  Staff Working Paper 2019-48 Edouard Djeutem, Shaofeng Xu

  This paper studies the implications of model uncertainty for wealth distribution in a tractable general equilibrium model with a borrowing constraint and robustness à la Hansen and Sargent (2008). Households confront model uncertainty about the process driving the return of the risky asset, and they choose robust policies.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D3, D8, E, E2

• Extreme Downside Risk in Asset Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2019-46 Lerby Ergun

  Financial markets can experience sudden and extreme downward movements. Investors are highly concerned about the performance of their assets in such scenarios. Some assets perform badly in a downturn in the market; others have milder reactions.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, G, G1, G11, G12

• Are Long-Horizon Expectations (De-)Stabilizing? Theory and Experiments

  Staff Working Paper 2019-27 George Evans, Cars Hommes, Bruce McGough, Isabelle Salle

  Most models in finance assume that agents make trading plans over the infinite future. We consider instead that they are boundedly rational and may only form forecasts over a limited horizon.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Central bank research, Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D84, E

• Entrepreneurial Incentives and the Role of Initial Coin Offerings

  Staff Working Paper 2019-18 Rod Garratt, Maarten van Oordt

  Initial coin offerings (ICOs) are a new mode of financing start-ups that saw an explosion in popularity in 2017 but declined in popularity in the second half of 2018 as regulatory pressure, instances of fraud and reports of poor performance began to undermine their reputation.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32

• Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk Adjustments?

  Staff Working Paper 2019-11 Klaus Adam, Dmitry Matveev, Stefan Nagel

  Motivated by the observation that survey expectations of stock returns are inconsistent with rational return expectations under real-world probabilities, we investigate whether alternative expectations hypotheses entertained in the literature on asset pricing are consistent with the survey evidence.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12

• Markets Look Beyond the Headline

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-37 Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong, Raisa Leiderman

  Many reports and analyses interpret the release of new economic data based on the headline surprise—for instance, total inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate. However, we find that headline news alone cannot adequately explain the responses of market prices to new information. Rather, market prices react more strongly, on average, to non-headline news such as the composition of GDP growth, quality of jobs created and revisions to past data. Thus, tracking the impact of non-headline information released on the news day is crucial in analyzing how markets interpret and react to new economic data.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12, G14
• November 5, 2018

  Making Sense of Markets

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Canada–UK Chamber of Commerce London, United Kingdom

  Governor Poloz discusses how the Bank uses financial market information in its monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments

• The Impact of Government Debt Supply on Bond Market Liquidity: An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Market

  Staff Working Paper 2018-35 Jeffrey Gao, Jianjian Jin, Jacob Thompson

  This paper finds that Government of Canada benchmark bonds tend to be more illiquid over the subsequent month when there is a large increase in government debt supply. The result is both statistically and economically significant, stronger for the long-term than the short-term sector, and is robust when other macro factors are controlled for.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Debt Management, Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, G, G1, G12, G18, G2, G3, G32

• Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields and Real Bond Yields

  Staff Working Paper 2018-24 Guihai Zhao

  Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal yield curves. We develop a model that can generate upward-sloping nominal and real yield curves by instead using ambiguity about inflation and growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12

• Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2018-22 Edouard Djeutem, Geoffrey R. Dunbar

  We propose an uncovered expected returns parity (URP) condition for the bilateral spot exchange rate. URP implies that unilateral exchange rate equations are misspecified and that equity returns also affect exchange rates. Fama regressions provide evidence that URP is statistically preferred to uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) for nominal bilateral exchange rates between the US dollar and six countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, Norway, Switzerland and the UK) at the monthly frequency.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15