C32 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models

• Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts

  Staff Working Paper 2018-52 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel

  We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary Policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E1, E17, E3, E37

• Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-34 Andrew Lee-Poy

  In this note, I use two multivariate frequency filtering approaches to characterize the Canadian financial cycle by capturing fluctuations in the underlying variables with respect to a long-term trend. The first approach is a dynamically weighted composite, and the second is a stochastic cycle model.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C13, C14, C18, C3, C32, C5, C51, C52, E, E3, E32, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18

• Disaggregating Household Sensitivity to Monetary Policy by Expenditure Category

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-32 Tony Chernis, Corinne Luu

  Because the Bank of Canada has started withdrawing monetary stimulus, monitoring the transmission of these changes to monetary policy will be important. Subcomponents of consumption and housing will likely respond differently to a monetary policy tightening, both in terms of the aggregate effect and timing.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Housing, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E21, E22, E4, E43, E47, E5, E52

• Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails

  Staff Working Paper 2018-50 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Tatevik Sekhposyan

  We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy communications, Transmission of monetary policy, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C3, C32, E, E0, E02, E4, E43, E5, E52

• Noisy Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2018-23 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Luca Gambetti

  We introduce limited information in monetary policy. Agents receive signals from the central bank revealing new information (“news") about the future evolution of the policy rate before changes in the rate actually take place. However, the signal is disturbed by noise.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Monetary policy implementation, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C3, C32, E, E0, E02, E4, E43, E5, E52

• Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals

  Staff Working Paper 2017-22 Lorenzo Pozzi, Barbara Sadaba

  This paper presents a new testing method for the scapegoat model of exchange rates that aims to tighten the link between the theory on scapegoats and its empirical implementation. This new testing method consists of a number of steps.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15

• Small‐Sample Tests for Stock Return Predictability with Possibly Non‐Stationary Regressors and GARCH‐Type Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We develop a simulation-based procedure to test for stock return predictability with multiple regressors. The process governing the regressors is left completely free and the test procedure remains valid in small samples even in the presence of non-normalities and GARCH-type effects in the stock returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C3, C32, G, G1, G14

• A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth

  Staff Working Paper 2017-2 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel

  This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C38, C5, C53, E, E3, E37

• Terms-of-Trade and House Price Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Study

  Staff Working Paper 2017-1 Paul Corrigan

  Terms-of-trade shocks are known to be key drivers of business cycles in open economies. This paper argues that terms-of-trade shocks were also important for house price fluctuations in a panel of developed countries over the 1994–2015 period.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E5, E51, F, F3, F36, F4, F41

• Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-12 Martin Kuncl

  During the period of 2008 to 2012, the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance were tightened on four occasions. In this note, we estimate the effects through a simple econometric exercise using a vector error-correction model (VECM).

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E6, E65, G, G2, G28