Russo-Ukrainian War
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 Military situation, as of 3 March 2022, during the 24 February offensive Controlled by Ukraine Occupied by Russia and pro-Russian forces
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Supported by For countries supporting Ukraine during the 2022 invasion, see 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine |
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For details of strengths and units involved at key points in the war, see:
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Civilian casualties See 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine for casualties resulting from the 2022 invasion (not included herein). | |||||||||
| Russo-Ukrainian War |
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The Russo-Ukrainian War[23][d] is an ongoing war primarily involving Russia, pro-Russian forces, and Belarus on one side, and Ukraine and its international supporters on the other. Conflict began in February 2014 following the Revolution of Dignity, and focused on the status of Crimea and parts of the Donbas, internationally recognised as part of Ukraine. The conflict includes the Russian annexation of Crimea (2014), the War in Donbas (2014–present), naval incidents, cyberwarfare, and political tensions. While trying to hide its involvement, Russia gave military backing to separatists in the Donbas from 2014 onwards. Having built up a large military presence on the border from late 2021, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, which is ongoing.
Following the Ukrainian Euromaidan protests and subsequent removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych on 22 February 2014, pro-Russian unrest erupted in parts of Ukraine. Russian soldiers without insignia took control of strategic positions and infrastructure in the Ukrainian territory of Crimea. Unmarked Russian troops seized the Crimean Parliament and Russia organized a widely-criticised referendum, whose outcome was for Crimea to join Russia. It then annexed Crimea. In April 2014, demonstrations by pro-Russian groups in the Donbas region of Ukraine escalated into a war between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed separatists of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk republics. In August, unmarked Russian military vehicles crossed the border into the Donetsk republic. An undeclared war began between Ukrainian forces and separatists intermingled with Russian troops, although Russia denied the presence of its troops in the Donbas. The war settled into a stalemate, with repeated failed attempts at ceasefire. In 2015, a package of agreements called Minsk II were signed by Russia and Ukraine, but a number of disputes prevented them from being fully implemented. By 2019, 7% of Ukraine's territory was classified by the Ukrainian government as temporarily occupied territories, while the Russian government had indirectly acknowledged the presence of its troops in Ukraine.
In 2021 and early 2022, there was a major Russian military build-up around Ukraine's borders. NATO accused Russia of planning an invasion, which it denied. Russian president Putin criticized the enlargement of NATO as a threat to his country and demanded Ukraine be barred from ever joining the military alliance. He also expressed irredentist views, questioning Ukraine's right to exist and claiming Ukraine was wrongfully created by Soviet Russia. On 21 February 2022, Russia officially recognised the two self-proclaimed separatist states in the Donbas, and sent troops to the territories. Three days later, Russia invaded Ukraine after Russian president Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation". Much of the international community and organizations such as Amnesty International have condemned Russia for its actions in post-revolutionary Ukraine, accusing it of breaking international law and violating Ukrainian sovereignty. Many countries implemented economic sanctions against Russia, Russian individuals or companies,[24] especially after the 2022 invasion.
Background
The 1954 transfer of Crimea, which has been home to the Black Sea Fleet,[25] from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR came at the head of Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev. This event was viewed as an insignificant "symbolic gesture", as both republics were a part of the Soviet Union and answerable to the government in Moscow.[26][27][28] Crimean autonomy was re-established after a referendum in 1991.[29] Despite being an independent country since 1991, as a former soviet socialist republic, Ukraine has been perceived by Russia as being part of its sphere of influence. Iulian Chifu and his co-authors say that, in regard to Ukraine, Russia pursues a modernized version of the Brezhnev Doctrine on "limited sovereignty", which dictates that the sovereignty of Ukraine cannot be larger than that of the Warsaw Pact prior to the demise of the Soviet sphere of influence with the Revolutions of 1989.[30] This claim is based on statements of Russian leaders that possible integration of Ukraine into NATO would jeopardize Russia's national security.[31][32][30]
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine and Russia continued to retain very close ties for decades. At the same time, there were several sticking points, most importantly Ukraine's significant nuclear arsenal, which Ukraine agreed to abandon in the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances (December 1994) on the condition that Russia and the other signatories would issue an assurance against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine. In 1999, Russia was one of signatories of Charter for European Security, where it "reaffirmed the inherent right of each and every participating State to be free to choose or change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance, as they evolve".[33]
Another point was the division of the Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine agreed to lease a number of naval facilities including those in Sevastopol so that the Russian Black Sea fleet could continue to be based there together with Ukrainian naval forces. Starting in 1993, through the 1990s and 2000s, Ukraine and Russia engaged in several gas disputes.[34] In 2001, Ukraine, along with Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova, formed a group called GUAM Organization for Democracy and Economic Development, which was seen by Russia as a direct challenge to the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Russian-dominated trade group established after the collapse of the Soviet Union.[35] Russia was further irritated by the Orange Revolution of 2004, which saw the pro-European Viktor Yushchenko elected president instead of the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych.[36] Moreover, Ukraine continued to increase its cooperation with NATO, deploying the third-largest contingent of troops to Iraq in 2004, as well as dedicating peacekeepers to NATO missions such as the ISAF force in Afghanistan and KFOR in Kosovo.[37]
Yanukovych was elected in 2010 and Russia felt that many ties with Ukraine could be repaired. Prior to this, Ukraine had not renewed the lease of naval facilities in Crimea, meaning that Russian troops would have to leave Crimea by 2017. Yanukovych signed a new lease and expanded allowable troop presence as well as allowing troops to train in the Kerch peninsula.[38] Many in Ukraine viewed the extension as unconstitutional because Ukraine's constitution states that no permanent foreign troops shall be stationed in Ukraine after the Sevastopol treaty expired. Yulia Tymoshenko, the main opposition figure of Yanukovych, was jailed on charges that were called political persecution by international observers, leading to further dissatisfaction with the government. In November 2013, Viktor Yanukovych declined to sign an association agreement with the European Union, a treaty that had been in development for several years and one that Yanukovych, who favoured closer ties with Russia, had earlier approved of.[39]
In September 2013, Russia warned that if Ukraine went ahead with a planned free trade agreement with the European Union, it would face financial catastrophe and possibly the collapse of the state.[40] Sergey Glazyev, adviser to Russian president Vladimir Putin, said that "Ukrainian authorities are making a huge mistake if they think that the Russian reaction will become neutral in a few years from now. This will not happen." Russia had already imposed import restrictions on certain Ukrainian products and Glazyev did not rule out further sanctions if the agreement was signed. Glazyev allowed for the possibility of separatist movements springing up in the Russian-speaking east and south of Ukraine. He insisted that if Ukraine signed the agreement, it would violate the bilateral treaty on strategic partnership and friendship with Russia that delineates the countries borders. Russia would no longer guarantee Ukraine's status as a state and could possibly intervene if pro-Russian regions of the country appealed directly to Russia.[40]
Euromaidan, anti-Maidan, and Revolution of Dignity
Following months of protests as part of the Euromaidan movement, on 21 February 2014 Yanukovych and the leaders of the parliamentary opposition signed a settlement agreement that called for early elections. The following day, Yanukovych fled from the capital ahead of an impeachment vote that stripped him of his powers as president.[41][42][43][44] On 27 February, an interim government was established and early presidential elections were scheduled. The following day, Yanukovych resurfaced in Russia and in a press conference declared that he remained the acting president of Ukraine, just as Russia was beginning its overt military campaign in Crimea. Leaders of Russian-speaking eastern regions of Ukraine declared continuing loyalty to Yanukovych,[42][45] causing the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine. On 23 February, the parliament adopted a bill to repeal the 2012 law which gave Russian language an official status.[46] The bill was not enacted,[47] however, the proposal provoked negative reactions in the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine,[48] intensified by Russian media saying that the ethnic Russian population were in imminent danger.[49]
In the meantime, on the morning of 27 February, Berkut special police units from Crimea and other regions of Ukraine, which had been dissolved on 25 February, seized checkpoints on the Isthmus of Perekop and Chonhar peninsula.[50][51] According to Ukrainian MP Hennadiy Moskal, former chief of the Crimean police, these Berkut had armored personnel carriers, grenade launchers, assault rifles, machine guns, and other weapons.[51] Since then, they have controlled all land traffic between Crimea and continental Ukraine.[51] On 7 February 2014, a leaked audio revealed that United States Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland in Kyiv, was weighing in on the make-up of the next Ukrainian government. Nuland told United States Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt that she did not think Vitaly Klitschko should be in a new government. The audio clip was first posted on Twitter by Dmitry Loskutov, an aide to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin.[52]
Russian financing of militias and the Glazyev tapes
In August 2016, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) published the first batch of telephone intercepts from 2014 of Sergey Glazyev (Russian presidential adviser), Konstantin Zatulin, and other people in which they discussed covert funding of pro-Russian activists in Eastern Ukraine, the occupation of administration buildings and other actions that in due course led to the armed conflict.[53] Glazyev refused to deny the authenticity of the intercepts, while Zatulin confirmed they were real but "taken out of context".[54] Further batches were presented as evidence during criminal proceedings against former president Yanukovych in Kyiv's Obolon court between 2017 and 2018.[55]
As early as February 2014, Glazyev was giving direct instructions to various pro-Russian parties in Ukraine to instigate unrest in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, and Odessa. Glazyev instructs various pro-Russian actors on the necessity of taking over local administration offices, what to do after they were taken over, how to formulate their demands and makes various promises about support from Russia, including "sending our guys".[56][57][58]
Konstantin Zatulin: ... That's the main story. I want to say about other regions – we have financed Kharkiv, financed Odesa.
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Sergey Glazyev: Look, the situation in the process. Kharkiv Regional State Administration has already been stormed, in Donetsk the Regional State Administration has been stormed. It is necessary to storm Regional State Administration and gather regional deputies there!
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Sergey Glazyev: It is very important that people appeal to Putin. Mass appeals directly to him with a request to protect, an appeal to Russia, etc. This appeal has been already in your meeting.
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Denis Yatsyuk: So we after storming building of Regional State Administration we gather a session of the Regional State Administration, right? We invite MPs and force them to vote? ...
— Sergey Glazyev et al., "English translation of audio evidence of the involvement of Putin's adviser Glazyev and other Russian politicians in the war in Ukraine", UAPosition.com
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In further calls recorded in February and March 2014, Glazyev points out that the "peninsula 't have its own electricity, water, or gas" and a "quick and effective" solution would be expansion to the north. According to Ukrainian journalists, this indicates that the plans for military intervention in Donbas to form a Russia-controlled puppet state of Novorossiya to ensure supplies to annexed Crimea was discussed long before the conflict actually started in April. Some also pointed out the similarity of the planned Novorossiya territory to the previous ephemeric project of South-East Ukrainian Autonomous Republic proposed briefly in 2004 by pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine.[55]
On 4 March 2014, Russian permanent representative to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin presented a photocopy of a letter signed by Viktor Yanukovych on 1 March 2014, asking that Russian president Vladimir Putin use Russian armed forces to "restore the rule of law, peace, order, stability and protection of the population of Ukraine".[59] Both houses of the Russian parliament voted on 1 March to give President Putin the right to use Russian troops in Crimea.[60][61] On 24 June, Putin asked the Russian parliament to cancel the resolution on use of Russian forces in Ukraine.[62] The next day, the Federation Council voted to repeal its previous decision, making it illegal to use Russian organized military forces in Ukraine.[63]
Russian bases in Crimea
At the onset of its conflict, Russia had roughly 12,000 military personnel in the Black Sea Fleet,[49] located in several localities throughout Crimean peninsula like Sevastopol, Kacha, Hvardiiske, Simferopol Raion, Sarych, and several others. The disposition of the Russian armed forces in Crimea was not disclosed clearly to the public which led to several incidents like the 2005 conflict near Sarych cape lighthouse.[64][failed verification] Russian presence was allowed by the basing and transit agreement with Ukraine. According to the agreements Russian military component in Crimea was constrained, including a maximum of 25,000 troops, the requirement to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine, honor its legislation and not interfere in the internal affairs of the country, and show their "military identification cards" when crossing the international border and their operations beyond designated deployment sites were permitted only after coordination with the competent agencies of Ukraine.[65] Early in the conflict, the agreement's sizeable troop limit allowed Russia to significantly reinforce its military presence under the plausible guise of security concern, deploy special forces and other required capabilities to conduct the operation in Crimea.[49]
According to the original treaty on division of the Soviet Black Sea Fleet signed in 1997, Russia was allowed to have its military bases in Crimea until 2017, after which it had to evacuate all its military units including its portion of the Black Sea Fleet out of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol. A Russian construction project to re-home to fleet in Novorossiysk launched in 2005 and was expected to be fully completed by 2020; as of 2010, the project faced major budget cuts and construction delays.[66] On 21 April 2010, former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych signed a new dealm known as the Kharkiv Pact, to resolve the 2009 Russia–Ukraine gas dispute; it extended the stay until 2042 with an option to renew and in return receiving some discount on gas delivered from Russian.[67] The Kharkiv Pact was rather an update to complex of several fundamental treaties that were signed in 1990s between prime ministers of both countries Viktor Chernomyrdin (Russia) and Pavlo Lazarenko (Ukraine), and presidents Boris Yeltsin (Russia) and Leonid Kuchma (Ukraine).[68][69][70][71][non-primary source needed] The Constitution of Ukraine, whilst having a general prohibition of a deployment of foreign bases on the country's soil, originally also had a transitional provision, which allowed the use of existing military bases on the territory of Ukraine for the temporary stationing of foreign military formations; this permitted Russian military to keep its basing in Crimea as an "existing military base". The constitutional provision on "[pre]-existing bases" was revoked in 2019, when Russia had already annexed Crimea and withdrew from the basing treaties unilaterally.[72]
History
 | This section may require copy editing for grammar, style, cohesion, tone, or spelling. (October 2021) |
2014 Russian annexation of Crimea
Russia's decision to annex Crimea was made on 20 February 2014.[73][74][75][76] On 22 and 23 February, Russian troops and special forces began moving into Crimea through Novorossiysk.[75] On 27 February, Russian forces without insignias began taking control of the Crimean Peninsula.[77] They took hold of strategic positions and captured the Crimean Parliament, raising a Russian flag. Security checkpoints were used to cut the Crimean Peninsula off from the rest of Ukraine and to restrict movement within the territory.[78][79][80][81] In the following days, Russian soldiers secured key airports and a communications center.[82] Additionally, the use of cyberwarfare led to websites associated with the official Ukrainian Government websites, the news media, as well as social media shutting down. Cyber attacks also disabled or gained access to the mobile phones of Ukrainian officials and parliament members over the next few days, further severing lines of communication.[83]
On 1 March, the Russian legislature approved the use of armed forces, leading to an influx of Russian troops and military hardware into the peninsula.[82] In the following days, all remaining Ukrainian military bases and installations were surrounded and besieged, including the Southern Naval Base. After Russia formally annexed the peninsula on 18 March, Ukrainian military bases and ships were stormed by Russian forces. On 24 March, Ukraine ordered troops to withdraw; by 30 March, all Ukrainian forces had left the peninsula.
On 15 April, the Ukrainian parliament declared Crimea a territory temporarily occupied by Russia.[84] After the annexation, the Russian government increased its military presence in the region and leveraged nuclear threats to solidify the new status quo on the ground.[85] Russian president Vladimir Putin said that a Russian military task force would be established in Crimea.[86] In November, NATO stated that it believed Russia was deploying nuclear-capable weapons to Crimea.[87]
2014–2015 Donbas war
Pro-Russian unrest
The initial protests across southern and eastern Ukraine were largely native expressions of discontent with the new Ukrainian government.[88] Russian involvement at this stage was limited to its voicing of support for the demonstrations, and the emergence of the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk began as a small fringe group of the protesters, independent of Russian control.[88][89] Russia would go on to take advantage of this, however, to launch a co-ordinated political and military campaign against Ukraine, as part of the broader Russo-Ukrainian War.[88][90] Russian president Vladimir Putin gave legitimacy to the nascent separatist movement when he described the Donbas as part of the historic "New Russia" (Novorossiya) region, and issued a statement of bewilderment as how the region had ever become part of Ukraine in 1922 with the foundation of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.[91] When the Ukrainian authorities cracked down on the pro-Russian protests and arrested local separatist leaders in early March, these were replaced by people with ties to the Russian security services and interests in Russian businesses, probably by order of Russian intelligence.[92] By April 2014, Russians citizens had taken control of the separatist movement, and were supported by volunteers and materiel from Russia, including Chechen and Cossack militants.[93][94][95][96] According to DPR insurgent commander Igor Girkin, without this support in April, the movement would have fizzled out, as in it did in Kharkiv and Odessa.[97] The disputed referendum on the status of Donetsk Oblast was held on 11 May.[98][99][100]
These demonstrations, which followed the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, and which were part of a wider group of concurrent pro-Russian protests across southern and eastern Ukraine, escalated into an armed conflict between the Russia-backed separatist forces of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR respectively), and the Ukrainian government.[101][102] The SBU claimed key commanders of the rebel movement during the beginning of the conflict, including Igor Strelkov and Igor Bezler were Russian agents.[103][104] The prime minister of Donetsk People's Republic from May to August 2014 was a Russian citizen Alexander Borodai.[95] From August 2014 all top positions in Donetsk and Luhansk have been held by Ukrainian citizens.[105][94] Russian volunteers are reported to make up from 15% to 80% of the combatants,[95][106][107][108][109] with many claimed to be former military personnel.[110][111] Recruitment for the Donbas insurgents was performed openly in Russian cities using private or voyenkomat facilities, as was confirmed by a number of Russian media.[110][112]
Economic and material circumstances in Donbas had generated neither necessary nor sufficient conditions for a locally rooted, internally driven armed conflict. The role of the Kremlin's military intervention was paramount for the commencement of hostilities.[113]
March–July 2014
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In late March, Russia continued the buildup of military forces near the Ukrainian eastern border, reaching 30–40,000 troops by April.[114][49] The deployment was likely used to threaten escalation and stymie Ukraine's response to unfolding events.[49] Concerns were expressed that Russia may again be readying an incursion into Ukraine following its annexation of Crimea.[114] This threat forced Ukraine to divert force deployment to its borders instead of the conflict zone.[49]
In April, armed conflict begins in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed separatist forces and Ukrainian government. The separatists declared the People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. From 6 April, Militant occupied government buildings in many cities, as well as, taking control of border crossings to Russia, transport hubs, broadcasting center, and other strategic infrastructure. Faced with continued expansion of separatist territorial control, on 15 April the Ukrainian interim government launched an "Anti-Terrorist Operation" (ATO), however, Ukrainian military and security services were poorly prepared and ill-positioned and the operation quickly stalled.[115] By the end of April, the Ukrainian Government announced it had no full control of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, being on "full combat alert" against a possible Russian invasion and reinstatement of conscription to the armed forces.[116] Through May, Ukrainian campaign focused on containing the separatists by securing key positions around the ETO zone to position the military for a decisive offensive against the rebel enclave once Ukraine's national mobilization complete.
As conflict between the separatists and the Ukrainian government escalated in May, Russia began to employ a "hybrid approach", deploying a combination of disinformation tactics, irregular fighters, regular Russian troops, and conventional military support to support the separatists and destabilise the Donbas region.[117][118][119] The First Battle of Donetsk Airport that followed the Ukrainian presidential elections marked a turning point in conflict; it was the first battle between the separatists and the Ukrainian government that involved large amounts of Russian volunteers.[120][121]: 15 According to the Ukrainian government, at the height of the conflict in the summer of 2014, Russian paramilitaries were reported to make up between 15% to 80% of the combatants.[95] From June Russia trickled in arms, armor, and munitions to the separatist forces.
By the end of July, they were pushing into Donetsk and Luhansk cities, to cut off supply routes between the two, isolating Donetsk and thought to restore control of the Russo-Ukrainian border. By 28 July, the strategic heights of Savur-Mohyla were under Ukrainian control, along with the town of Debaltseve an important railroad hub.[122] These operational successes of Ukrainian forces threatened the very existence of Russian-supported DPR and LPR statelets, prompting Russian cross-border artillery shelling targeted against advancing Ukrainian troops on their own soil, from mid-July onwards.
American and Ukrainian officials said they had evidence of Russian interference in Ukraine, including intercepted communications between Russian officials and Donbas insurgents.[123][124]
Ukrainian media have described the well-organised and well-armed pro-Russian militants as similar to those which occupied regions of Crimea during the Crimean crisis.[125][126] The former deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Admiral Ihor Kabanenko, said that the militants are Russian military reconnaissance and sabotage units.[127] Arsen Avakov stated that the militants in Krasnyi Lyman used Russian-made AK-100 series assault rifles fitted with grenade launchers, and that such weapons are only issued in the Russian Federation. "The Government of Ukraine is considering the facts of today as a manifestation of external aggression by Russia," said Avakov.[128] Militants in Sloviansk arrived in military lorries without license plates.[129] A reporter from Russia's Novaya Gazeta, having visited separatist artillery positions in Avdeyevka, wrote that in his opinion "it's impossible that the cannons are handled by volunteers" as they require a trained and experienced team, including observers and adjustment experts.[130]
August–September 2014
After a series of military defeats and setbacks for the Donetsk and Luhansk separatists, who united under the banner of "Novorossiya", a term Russian President Vladimir Putin used to describe southeastern Ukraine,[131][132] Russia dispatched what it called a "humanitarian convoy" of trucks across the Russo-Ukrainian border in mid-August 2014. Ukraine reacted to the move by calling it a "direct invasion".[133] Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council published a report on the number and contents of these convoys, claiming they were arriving almost daily in November (up to 9 convoys on 30 November) and their contents were mainly arms and ammunition. In early August, according to Igor Strelkov, Russian servicemen, supposedly on "vacation" from the army, began to arrive in Donbas.[134]
By August 2014, the Ukrainian "Anti-Terrorist Operation" was able to vastly shrink the territory under the control of the pro-Russian forces, and came close to regaining control of the Russo-Ukrainian border.[135] Igor Girkin urged Russian military intervention, and said that the combat inexperience of his irregular forces, along with recruitment difficulties amongst the local population in Donetsk Oblast had caused the setbacks. He addressed Russian president Vladimir Putin, saying that: "Losing this war on the territory that President Vladimir Putin personally named New Russia would threaten the Kremlin's power and, personally, the power of the president".[136] In response to the deteriorating situation in the Donbas, Russia abandoned its hybrid approach, and began a conventional invasion of the region.[135][137] The first sign of this invasion was 25 August 2014 capture of a group of Russian paratroopers on active service in Ukrainian territory by the Ukrainian security service (SBU).[138] The SBU released photographs of them, and their names.[139] On the following day, the Russian defence Ministry said these soldiers had crossed the border "by accident".[140][141][142] According to Nikolai Mitrokhin's estimates, by mid-August 2014 during the Battle of Ilovaisk, there were between 20,000 and 25,000 troops fighting in the Donbas on the separatist side, and only between 40% and 45% were "locals".[143]
On 24 August 2014, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko referred to the anti-terrorist operation (ATO) as Ukraine's "Patriotic War of 2014" and a war against "external aggression".[144][145] The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine labeled the conflict an invasion on 27 August 2014.[146] The same day, Amvrosiivka was occupied by Russian paratroopers,[147] supported by 250 armoured vehicles and artillery pieces.[148] Ten Russian paratroopers of the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment, military unit 71211 from Kostroma, were captured in Dzerkalne that day, a village near Amvrosiivka, 20 kilometres (12 mi) from the border,[149] after their armoured vehicles were hit by Ukrainian artillery. On 25 August, the Security Service of Ukraine reported about the captured paratroopers, claiming they've crossed Ukrainian border in the night of 23 August.[150] The SBU also released their photos and names.[151] The next day, the Russian Ministry of Defence said that they had crossed the border "by accident".[149][152]
On 25 August, a column of Russian tanks and military vehicles was reported to have crossed into Ukraine in the southeast, near the town of Novoazovsk located on the Azov sea coast, and headed towards Ukrainian-held Mariupol,[153][154][155][156][157] in an area that had not seen pro-Russian presence for weeks.[158] The Bellingcat's investigation reveals some details of this operation.[159] Russian forces captured the city of Novoazovsk.[160] and Russian soldiers began arresting and deporting to unknown locations all Ukrainians who did not have an address registered within the town.[161] Pro-Ukrainian anti-war protests took place in Mariupol which was threatened by Russian troops.[161][162] The UN Security Council called an emergency meeting to discuss the situation.[163]
The 76th Guards Air Assault Division based in Pskov allegedly entered Ukrainian territory in August and engaged in a skirmish near Luhansk, suffering 80 dead. The Ukrainian Defence Ministry said that they had seized two of the unit's armoured vehicles near Luhansk city, and reported about another three tanks and two armoured vehicles of pro-Russian forces destroyed in other regions.[164][165] The Russian government denied the skirmish took place[165] but on 18 August, the 76th Guards Air Assault Division was awarded with Order of Suvorov, one of Russia's highest awards, by Russian minister of defence Sergey Shoigu for the "successful completion of military missions" and "courage and heroism".[165] Russian media highlighted that the medal is awarded exclusively for combat operations and reported that a large number of soldiers from this division had died in Ukraine just days before, but their burials were conducted in secret.[166][167][168] Some Russian media, such as Pskovskaya Guberniya,[169] reported that Russian paratroopers may have been killed in Ukraine. Journalists traveled to Pskov, the reported burial location of the troops, to investigate. Multiple reporters said they had been attacked or threatened there, and that the attackers erased several camera memory cards.[170] Pskovskaya Guberniya revealed transcripts of phone conversations between Russian soldiers being treated in a Pskov hospital for wounds received while fighting in Ukraine. The soldiers reveal that they were sent to the war, but told by their officers that they were going on "an exercise".[171][172]
The speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament and Russian state television channels acknowledged that Russian soldiers entered Ukraine, but referred to them as "volunteers".[173] A reporter for Novaya Gazeta, an opposition newspaper in Russia, stated that the Russian military leadership paid soldiers to resign their commissions and fight in Ukraine in the early summer of 2014, and then began ordering soldiers into Ukraine. This reporter mentioned knowledge of at least one case when soldiers who refused were threatened with prosecution.[174] Russian opposition MP Lev Shlosberg made similar statements, although he said combatants from his country are "regular Russian troops", disguised as units of the DPR and LPR.[175] In early September 2014, Russian state-owned television channels reported on the funerals of Russian soldiers who died in Ukraine during the war in Donbas, but described them as "volunteers" fighting for the "Russian world". Valentina Matviyenko, a top politician in the ruling United Russia party, also praised "volunteers" fighting in "our fraternal nation", referring to Ukraine.[173] Russian state television for the first time showed the funeral of a soldier killed fighting in east Ukraine. State-controlled TV station Channel One showed the burial of paratrooper Anatoly Travkin in the central Russian city of Kostroma. The broadcaster said Travkin had not told his wife or commanders about his decision to fight alongside pro-Russia rebels battling government forces. "Officially he just went on leave", the news reader said.[176]
Mariupol offensive
On 3 September 2014, a Sky News team filmed groups of troops near Novoazovsk wearing modern combat gear typical for Russian units and traveling in new military vehicles with number plates and other markings removed. Specialists consulted by the journalists identified parts of the equipment (uniform, rifles) as currently used by Russian ground forces and paratroopers.[177]
Also on, 3 September, Ukrainian President Poroshenko said he had reached a "permanent ceasefire" agreement with Russian President Putin.[178] Russia denied the ceasefire agreement took place, denying being party to the conflict at all, adding that "they only discussed how to settle the conflict".[179][180] Poroshenko then backtracked from his previous statement about the agreement.[181][182]
Mick Krever wrote on the CNN blog that on 5 September Russia's Permanent Representative to the OSCE, Andrey Kelin had said it was natural pro-Russian separatists "are going to liberate" Mariupol. Ukrainian forces stated that Russian intelligence groups had been spotted in the area. Kelin said 'there might be volunteers over there.'[183] On 4 September 2014, a NATO officer said there were several thousand regular Russian forces operating in Ukraine.[184]
On 5 September 2014, the ceasefire agreement called the Minsk Protocol, drew a line of demarcation between Ukraine and separatist-controlled portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the southeast of the country.
November 2014 escalation
On 7 November, NATO officials confirmed the continued invasion of Ukraine, with 32 Russian tanks, 16 howitzer cannons and 30 trucks of troops entering the country.[185] On 12 November, NATO reiterated the prevalence of Russian troops; US general Philip Breedlove said "Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defence systems and Russian combat troops" were sighted.[87] The Lithuanian Mission to the United Nations denounced Russia's 'undeclared war' on Ukraine.[186] Journalist Menahem Kahana took a picture showing a 1RL232 "Leopard" battlefield surveillance radar system in Torez, east of Donetsk; and Dutch freelance journalist Stefan Huijboom took pictures which showed the 1RL232 traveling with the 1RL239 "Lynx" radar system.[187]
OSCE monitors further observed vehicles apparently used to transport soldiers' dead bodies crossing the Russian-Ukrainian border – in one case a vehicle marked with Russia's military code for soldiers killed in action crossed from Russia into Ukraine on 11 November 2014, and later returned.[188] On 23 January 2015 the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers warned about conscripts being sent to east Ukraine.[189] NATO said it had seen an increase in Russian tanks, artillery pieces and other heavy military equipment in eastern Ukraine and renewed its call for Moscow to withdraw its forces.[190]
The centre for Eurasian Strategic Intelligence estimated, based on "official statements and interrogation records of captured military men from these units, satellite surveillance data" as well as verified announcements from relatives and profiles in social networks, that over 30 Russian military units were taking part in the conflict in Ukraine. In total, over 8,000 soldiers had fought there at different moments.[191] The Chicago Council on Global Affairs stated that the Russian separatists enjoyed technical advantages over the Ukrainian army since the large inflow of advanced military systems in mid-2014: effective anti-aircraft weapons ("Buk", MANPADS) suppressed Ukrainian air strikes, Russian drones provided intelligence, and Russian secure communications system thwarted the Ukrainian side from communications intelligence. The Russian side also frequently employed electronic warfare systems that Ukraine lacked. Similar conclusions about the technical advantage of the Russian separatists were voiced by the Conflict Studies Research Centre.[192]
Numerous reports of Russian troops and warfare on Ukrainian territory were raised in United Nations Security Council meetings. In 12 November meeting, the representative of the United Kingdom also accused Russia of intentionally constraining OSCE observatory missions' capabilities, pointing out that the observers were allowed to monitor only two kilometers of border between Ukraine and Russia, and drones deployed to extend their capabilities were being jammed or shot down.[193]
2015 and ceasefire
In January, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Mariupol were the three cities that represented the three fronts on which Ukraine was pressed by forces allegedly armed, trained and backed by Russia.[195]
Poroshenko spoke of a dangerous escalation on 21 January amid reports of more than 2,000 additional Russian troops crossing the border, together with 200 tanks and armed personnel carriers. He abbreviated his visit to the World Economic Forum in Davos because of his concerns at the worsening situation.[196] On 29 January, the chief of Ukraine's General Military Staff Viktor Muzhenko said 'the Ukrainian army is not engaged in combat operations against Russian regular units,' but that he had information about Russian civilian and military individuals fighting alongside 'illegal armed groups in combat activities.'[197] Reporting from DPR-controlled areas on 28 January, the OSCE observed on the outskirts of Khartsyzk, east of Donetsk, "a column of five T-72 tanks facing east, and immediately after, another column of four T-72 tanks moving east on the same road which was accompanied by four unmarked military trucks, type URAL. All vehicles and tanks were unmarked." It reported on an intensified movement of unmarked military trucks, covered with canvas.[198] After the shelling of residential areas in Mariupol, NATO's Jens Stoltenberg said: "Russian troops in eastern Ukraine are supporting these offensive operations with command and control systems, air defence systems with advanced surface-to-air missiles, unmanned aerial systems, advanced multiple rocket launcher systems, and electronic warfare systems."'[190][199]
A new package of measures to end the conflict, known as Minsk II, was agreed on 15 February 2015.[200]
2015–2020 Frozen conflict phase
According to a top U.S. general in January, Russian supplied drones and electronic jamming have ensured Ukrainian troops struggle to counter artillery fire by pro-Russian militants. "The rebels have Russian-provided UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) that are giving the rebels the detection capability and the ability to target Ukrainian forces".[201] Advanced electronic jamming was also reported by OSCE observers on numerous occasions.[202]
US Army commander in Europe Ben Hodges stated in February 2015 that "it's very obvious from the amount of ammunition, type of equipment, there's direct Russian military intervention in the Debaltseve area".[203] According to estimates by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in February, Russian separatists forces number around 36,000 troops (as compared to 34,000 Ukrainian), of which 8,500–10,000 are purely Russian soldiers. Additionally, around 1,000 GRU troops are operating in the area.[204] According to a military expert, Ilya Kramnik, total Ukrainian forces outnumber the Russian forces by a factor of two (20,000 Russian separatists vs. 40,000 fighting for Ukraine).[205]
In February 2015, the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta had obtained documents,[206] allegedly written by oligarch Konstantin Malofayev and others, which provided the Russian government with a strategy in the event of Viktor Yanukovych's removal from power and the break-up of Ukraine, which were considered likely. The documents outlined plans for the annexation of Crimea and the eastern portions of the country, closely describing the events that actually followed after Yanukovych's fall. The documents also described plans for a public relations campaign which would seek to justify Russian actions.[207][208][209]
A report by Igor Sutyagin published by the Royal United Services Institute in March 2015 stated that a total of 42,000 regular Russian combat troops have been involved in the fighting, with a peak strength of 10,000 in December 2014. The direct involvement of the Russian troops on Ukrainian territory began in August 2014, at a time when Ukrainian military successes created the possibility that the pro-Russian rebels would collapse. According to the report, the Russian troops are the most capable units on the anti-Ukrainian side, with the regular Donetsk and Luhansk rebel formations being used essentially as "cannon fodder".[210][211] The Chicago Council on Global Affairs stated that the Russian separatists enjoyed technical advantages over the Ukrainian army since the large inflow of advanced military systems in mid-2014: effective anti-aircraft weapons ("Buk", MANPADS) suppressed Ukrainian air strikes, Russian drones provided intelligence, and Russian secure communications system thwarted the Ukrainian side from communications intelligence. The Russian side also frequently employed electronic warfare systems that Ukraine lacked. Similar conclusions about the technical advantage of the Russian separatists were voiced by the Conflict Studies Research Centre.[211]
Cases of Russian soldiers killed and wounded in Ukraine are widely discussed in local Russian media in the republics from which they originated.[212] Recruitment for Donbas is performed rather openly via veteran and other paramilitary organisations. Vladimir Yefimov, leader of one of such organisations, explained in details in an interview how the process works in Ural area. The organisation recruits mostly army veterans, but also policemen, firefighters etc. with military experience. The cost of equipping one volunteer is estimated at around 350,000 rubles (around $6500) plus cost of the volunteer's salary from 60,000 to 240,000 rubles per month depending on their experience. The volunteers are issued a document claiming that their participation is limited to "offering humanitarian help" to avoid Russian mercenary laws. In Russia's anti-mercenary legislation a mercenary is defined as someone who "takes part [in fighting] with aims counter to the interests of the Russian Federation".[213] The recruited travel to the conflict zone without weapons, which are given at the destination. Often, Russian troops have travelled disguised as Red Cross personnel.[111][214][215][216] Igor Trunov, head of Russian Red Cross in Moscow condemned these convoys, saying they made delivery of real humanitarian aid more difficult.[217]
On 22 April 2015, the US Department of State accused the "combined Russian-separatist forces" of accumulating air defence systems, UAV along with command and control equipment in eastern Ukraine, and of conducting "complex" military training that "leaves no doubt that Russia is involved in the training". Russia is also reinforcing its military presence on the eastern border with Ukraine as well as near Belgorod which is close to Kharkiv.[218]In June 2015, Vice News reporter Simon Ostrovsky investigated the movements of Bato Dambaev, a Russian contract soldier from Buryatia, through a military camp in Rostov Oblast to Vuhlehirsk in Ukraine during the battle of Debaltseve and back to Buryatia, finding exact locations where Dambaev photographed himself, and came to a conclusion that Dambaev had fought in Ukraine while in active service in the Russian army.[219] With Russia refusing to allow the OSCE to expand its mission, OSCE observer Paul Picard stated that "We often see how Russian media outlets manipulate our statements. They say that we have not seen Russian troops crossing the borders. But that only applies to two border crossings. We have no idea what is going on at the others."[220]
In September 2015 the United Nations Human Rights Office estimated that 8000 casualties had resulted from the conflict, noting that the violence had been "fuelled by the presence and continuing influx of foreign fighters and sophisticated weapons and ammunition from the Russian Federation."[221]
In 2020 analysis of publicly available Russian railway traffic data (gdevagon.ru) indicated that in January 2015, period of especially heavy fighting, thousands of tons of cargo declared "high explosives" was sent by railway from various places in Russia into Uspenskaya, a small train station on a line crossing from Rostovskaya oblast' (Russia) into separatist-controlled part of Ukraine.[222]
2016 escalation
On 8 August 2016, Ukraine reported that Russia had increased its military presence along the Crimea demarcation line. Border crossings were then closed.[223] On 10 August, the Russian security agency FSB claimed it had prevented "Ukrainian terrorist attacks" and that two servicemen were killed in clashes in Armiansk (Crimea), adding that "several" Ukrainian and Russian citizens were detained.[224][225][226] Russian media reported that one of the killed soldiers was a commander of the Russian GRU, and later was buried in Simferopol.[227] The Ukrainian government denied that the incident took place,[228][229] and parallel to the incident on 9 August, a Ukrainian official claimed that a number of Russian soldiers had deserted but had not entered into Ukraine,[230] and that skirmishes broke out between Russian intelligence officers and border guards.[231] Russian President Putin accused Ukraine of turning to the "practice of terror".[232] Ukrainian President Poroshenko called the Russian version of events "equally cynical and insane".[233] The U.S. denied Russia's claims, with its ambassador to Ukraine (Geoffrey R. Pyatt) stating "The U.S. Government has seen nothing so far that corroborates Russian allegations of a "Crimea incursion".[234][check quotation syntax]
Russia had used the allegation to engage in a rapid military build-up in Crimea,[235] followed by drills and military movement near the Ukrainian border.[235][236] Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko warned that Russia was preparing for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[237][238]
2018 Kerch Strait incident
The Kerch Strait offers a critical link for Ukraine's eastern ports in the Azov Sea to the Black Sea, which Russia has gained de facto control over in the aftermath of 2014. In 2017, Ukraine appealed to court of arbitration over the use of the strait, however, by 2018 Russia finished building a bridge over it, limiting the size of ships that can transit the strait, imposed new regulation and subsequently detained Ukrainian vessels on several occasions.
Tensions over the issue have been rising for months.[239] On 25 November 2018, three Ukrainian boats traveling from Odessa to Mariupol attempted to cross the Kerch Strait caused an incident, in which Russian warships fired on and seized the Ukrainian boats; 24 Ukrainian sailors were detained.[240][241] A day later on 26 November 2018, lawmakers in the Ukrainian parliament overwhelmingly backed the imposition of martial law along Ukraine's coastal regions and those bordering Russia in response to the firing upon and seizure of Ukrainian naval ships by Russia near the Crimean peninsula a day earlier. A total of 276 lawmakers in Kyiv passed the measure to take effect on 28 November 2018 and automatically expired after 30 days.[242]
2019–2020
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More than 110 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the conflict between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed separatists in 2019.[243]
In May 2019, the newly elected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took office promising to end the War in Donbas.[243]
In December 2019, Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists began swapping prisoners of war. Around 200 prisoners were exchanged on 29 December 2019.[244][245][246][247]
According to Ukrainian authorities, 50 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the conflict between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed separatists in 2020.[248]
Since 2019, Russia have issued over 650,000 internal Russian passports among an unconfirmed overall population,[249] which is considered by Ukrainian government as a step towards annexation of the region.[250]
2021–2022 Russian military buildup
In late March–early April 2021, the Russian military moved large quantities of arms and equipment from western and central Russia, and as far away as Siberia, into occupied Crimea and the Pogonovo training facility 17 km south of Voronezh.[251][252] A Janes intelligence specialist identified fourteen Russian military units from the Central Military District that had moved into the vicinity of the Russo-Ukrainian border, and called it the largest unannounced military movement since the 2014 invasion of Crimea.[253] Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Ruslan Khomchak said that Russia has stationed 28 BTGs (battalion tactical groups) along the border, and that it was expected that 25 more were to be brought in,[254] including in Bryansk and Voronezh oblasts in Russia's Western Military District. The following day, Russian state news agency TASS reported that fifty of its BTGs consisting of 15,000 soldiers were massed for drills in the Southern Military District, which includes occupied Crimea and also borders the Donbas conflict zone.[255] By 9 April, the head of the Ukrainian border guard estimated that 85,000 Russian soldiers were already in Crimea or within 40 kilometres (25 mi) of the Ukrainian border.[256]
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to American president Joe Biden and urged NATO members to speed up Ukraine's request for membership.[257][258] A Kremlin spokesman said that Russian military movements pose no threat,[259] but Russian official Dmitry Kozak warned that Russian forces could act to "defend" Russian citizens in Ukraine, and any escalation of the conflict would mean "the beginning of the end of Ukraine" – "not a shot in the leg, but in the face".[260][261] At the time some half a million people in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic had been issued with Russian passports since fighting broke out in 2014.[262] On 22 April 2021, Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoygu announcing an exercise drawdown with troops returning to base by 1 May, but leaving equipment at the Pogonovo training facility for the annual exercise with Belarus in September 2021.[251]
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On 1 September 2021, citing "senior Biden administration officials," The New York Times reported that Russia had only withdrawn a few thousand troops since the previous Russian military build-up in the spring of 2021. The article in the NYT put the number of Russian troops in the border regions at some 80,000.[263]
In September 2021, Ukraine conducted military exercises with NATO forces. The Kremlin warned that NATO expanding military infrastructure in Ukraine would cross "red lines" for President Putin.[264] Also in September, up to 200,000 Russian troops were taking part in Zapad 2021, a large joint Russia-Belarussian military exercise, centered on what the Russian General Staff terms the Western strategic direction.[265][266]
On 13 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia has again amassed 100,000 troops in the border area,[267] higher than the U.S. assessment of about 70,000.[268] In early November, reports of Russian military buildups prompted U.S. officials to warn the EU that Russia could be planning a potential invasion of Ukraine.[269][270] Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied allegations that Russia is preparing for a possible invasion of Ukraine.[271] He accused Ukraine of "planning aggressive actions against Donbass."[272] Peskov urged NATO to stop "concentrating a military fist" near Russia's borders and to stop arming Ukraine with modern weapons.[273]
On 30 November 2021, President Putin stated that an expansion of NATO's presence in Ukraine, especially the deployment of any long-range missiles capable of striking Moscow or missile defence systems similar to those in Romania and Poland, would be a "red line" issue for the Kremlin. He said that these missile-defense systems may be converted into launchers of offensive Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles.[274][275][276] NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated: "It's only Ukraine and 30 NATO allies that decide when Ukraine is ready to join NATO. Russia has no veto, Russia has no say, and Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence to try to control their neighbors."[277][278]
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On 1 December 2021, Russia accused Ukraine of deploying half its army – about 125,000 troops – in Donbas to confront pro-Russian separatists.[279] On 3 December, President Putin criticized Ukraine for using a Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone against pro-Russian separatists in Donbas, saying the move violated the Minsk peace agreements.[280] According to Ozgur Unluhisarcikli of the German Marshall Fund, Turkish-made "drones provided to Azerbaijan were a decisive factor" in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, "and Russia knows this".[281] On 9 December, Russia accused Ukraine of moving heavy artillery towards the front line where separatists are fighting with Ukrainian forces.[282] Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, stated that [NATO's] "Deliveries of helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles and airplanes to Ukraine are pushing the Ukrainian authorities to take sharp and dangerous steps. Any provocations of the Ukrainian authorities by way of a forced settlement of the problems of Donbass will be suppressed."[283] On 17 January 2022, British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced that Britain is supplying Ukraine with anti-armor weaponry by air.[284] Russian troops and weapons began arriving in Belarus for the 'Allied Resolve' joint exercise, which starts in February.[285]
U.S. intelligence officials warned that Russia was planning a major military offensive into Ukraine in January 2022.[286] Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and General Mark Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, threatened U.S. support for an anti-Russian insurgency inside Ukraine.[287] On 19 January 2022, President Joe Biden said that he thinks Russia will invade Ukraine.[288] Biden said a full-scale invasion of Ukraine would be "the most consequential thing that's happened in the world in terms of war and peace" since World War II.[289]
The United States has estimated that Russia could assemble 175,000 troops to invade Ukraine.[290] Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that "we have 250,000 official ... members of our army. Plus, I said 400,000 veterans and 200,000 reservists. 175,000 (is) not enough to go to Ukraine."[291] Reznikov said that Russia could launch a large-scale attack on Ukraine in late January 2022.[292]
The United States accused Russia of plans to send saboteurs into Ukraine to stage "a false flag operation" that would create a pretext for Russia to invade Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed the U.S. claim as "total disinformation."[293] The Kremlin has repeatedly denied that it has any plans to invade Ukraine.[294][289]
On 25 January 2022, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said he currently sees no threat of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.[295][296] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated the variety of Russian troops massed on Ukraine's borders "are not enough for a full-scale invasion."[297]
The US rejected Russia's demand to bar Ukraine from NATO in a formal response by US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken.[298]
On 28 January 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the West not to create a "panic" in his country over a potential Russian invasion, adding that constant warnings of an "imminent" threat of invasion are putting the economy of Ukraine at risk.[299] Zelensky said that "we do not see a bigger escalation" than in early 2021 when Russia's military build-up started.[300]
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On 11 February 2022, Biden's national security advisor Jake Sullivan publicly warned about the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine prior to the end the 2022 Winter Olympics, urging all Americans to leave Ukraine immediately.[303][304] U.S. intelligence released details regarding how an invasion into Ukraine by Russia may occur. These included the possibility of air raids by Russia as well as missile strikes, electronic warfare, followed by a ground invasion.[305] The U.S. intelligence indicated that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine on 16 February 2022.[306]
On 15 February 2022, Russia claims to have removed some of its forces from the Ukrainian border in what some believe to be a de-escalation attempt. However, the situation remains uncertain and the move by Russia has been met with suspicion from Western leaders, which was further enhanced after Ukraine was cyber attacked the same day, believed to have been orchestrated by Russia.[307] U.S. president Joe Biden remains unconvinced that Russia will not invade and urged all Americans in Ukraine to evacuate immediately. The foreign minister of Poland, Zbigniew Rau, travelled to Moscow to discuss the current situation in a further attempt to prevent war.[308] Some sources claim that Russian forces have moved even closer to the Ukrainian border equipped with medical supplies as well as being positioned into firing positions.[309]
On 17 February 2022, a Ukrainian kindergarten building was shelled by artillery, suspected to have been orchestrated by Russian forces.[310] No one was killed in the attack and Moscow denies its involvement. Western leaders warn the shelling could be a 'false-flag' operation in which Russia could justify an invasion of Ukraine.[311]
On 20 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that diplomatic attempts to resolve the Ukraine conflict must be stepped up. He stressed the fact that in order to prevent conflict, NATO must take Moscow's demands for security guarantees seriously. Putin blasted NATO for "pumping sophisticated weaponry and ammunition" into Ukraine after a phone talk with French President Emmanuel Macron.[312]
On 22 February 2022, the United States and United Kingdom announced that they would begin imposing sanctions against Russia in the following days.[313] This comes a day after Putin stated that he officially recognises Donetsk and Luhansk as independent regions and began sending troops into these parts of Eastern Ukraine.[314][315] Putin claims the presence of more Russian forces is simply to maintain peace, however, this was met with great backlash from world leaders.[316] The same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he will consider the possibility of severing Ukraine's diplomatic relations with Russia.[317]
On 23 February 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, declared a state of emergency period for 30 days for the whole of Ukraine, excluding the Donetsk and Luhansk regions which have been in a state of emergency since 2014.[318]
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
On 21 February 2022, the Russian government claimed that Ukrainian shelling had destroyed an FSB border facility on the Russia Ukraine border, and claimed that it had killed 5 Ukrainian soldiers who tried to cross into Russian territory. Ukraine denied being involved in both incidents and called them a false flag.[319][320] On the same day, the Russian government formally recognized the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR as independent states, according to Putin not only in their de-facto controlled areas, but the Ukrainian Oblasts as a whole,[321] and Putin ordered Russian troops, including tanks, to enter the regions.[322][323][324]
On 24 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine by Russian Armed Forces previously concentrated along the border.[325] The invasion followed by targeted airstrikes of military buildings in the country, as well as tanks entering via the Belarus border.[326][327] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared martial law throughout Ukraine.[328] Air raid sirens were heard throughout Ukraine for most of the day.[329] Ukraine's ICT infrastructure has already deteriorated as a result of Russian cyber-attacks and bombardments.[330][331] Several Ukrainian cities or buildings have been occupied, including the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.[332][333][334] However, per a US defence official, Russians forces are "meeting more resistance" in advance towards Kyiv "than they expected";[335] a statement repeated by James Heappey, Britain's current Minister for the Armed Forces the next day.[336]
Related issues
Russia–Ukraine gas disputes
Ukraine remains the main transit route for Russian natural gas sold to Europe, which earns Ukraine about $3 billion a year in transit fees, making it the country's most lucrative export service.[337] Following Russia's launch of the Nord Stream pipeline, which bypasses Ukraine, gas transit volumes have been steadily decreasing.[337] During the Ukrainian crisis, starting in February 2014 with the Russian annexation of Crimea, severe tensions extended to the gas sector.[338][339] Eventually, the EU commissioner for energy Günther Oettinger was called in to broker a deal securing supplies to Ukraine and transit to the EU.[340] A terrorist explosion damaged Russia's Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline in Rozhniativ district in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Ukraine in May 2014.[341] Another section of the pipeline exploded in the Poltava Oblast on 17 June 2014, one day after Russia limited the supply of gas to Ukrainian customers due to non-payment. Ukraine's Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said the next day, that the explosion had been caused by a bomb.[342]
Russia planned to completely abandon gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine after 2018.[343][344] Russia's state-owned energy giant Gazprom has already substantially reduced the volumes of gas it transits across Ukraine, and expressed its intention of reducing the level further by means of transit diversification pipelines (Turkish Stream, Nord Stream, etc.).[345] Gazprom and Ukraine agreed a five-year deal on Russian gas transit to Europe at the end of 2019.[346][347]
In 2020, the TurkStream natural gas pipeline running from Russia to Turkey changed the regional gas flows in South-East Europe by diverting the transit through Ukraine and the Trans Balkan Pipeline system.[348][349]
In May 2021, the Biden administration waived Trump's CAATSA sanctions on the company behind Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany and its chief executive.[350][351] Ukrainian President Zelensky said he was "surprised" and "disappointed" by Joe Biden's decision.[352] In July 2021, the U.S. urged Ukraine not to criticise a forthcoming agreement with Germany over the pipeline.[353][354] On 20 July, Joe Biden and German Chancellor Angela Merkel reached a conclusive deal that the U.S. may trigger sanctions if Russia uses Nord Stream as a "political weapon". The deal aims to prevent Poland and Ukraine from being cut off from Russian gas supplies. Ukraine will get a $50 million loan for green technology until 2024 and Germany will set up a billion dollar fund to promote Ukraine's transition to green energy to compensate the loss of the gas transit fees. The contract for transiting Russian gas through Ukraine will be prolonged until 2034, if the Russian government agrees.[355][356][357]
In August 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany was "a dangerous weapon, not only for Ukraine but for the whole of Europe."[358][359] In September 2021, Ukraine's Naftogaz CEO Yuriy Vitrenko accused Russia of using natural gas as a "geopolitical weapon".[360] Vitrenko stated that "A joint statement from the United States and Germany said that if the Kremlin used gas as a weapon, there would be an appropriate response. We are now waiting for the imposition of sanctions on a 100% subsidiary of Gazprom, the operator of Nord Stream 2."[361]
Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns
False stories have been used to provoke public uproar during the war. In April 2014, Russian news channels Russia-1 and NTV showed a man saying he was attacked by a fascist Ukrainian gang on one channel and on the other channel saying he was funding the training of right-wing anti-Russia radicals.[362][363] A third segment portrayed the man as a neo-Nazi surgeon.[364] In May 2014, Russia-1 aired a story about Ukrainian atrocities using footage of a 2012 Russian operation in North Caucasus.[365] In the same month, the Russian news network Life presented a 2013 photograph of a wounded child in Syria as a victim of Ukrainian troops who had just retaken Donetsk International Airport.[366] In June 2014, several Russian state news outlets reported that Ukraine was using white phosphorus using 2004 footage of white phosphorus being used by the United States in Iraq.[365] In July 2014, Channel One Russia broadcast an interview with a woman who said that a 3-year-old boy who spoke Russian was crucified by Ukrainian nationalists in a fictitious square in Sloviansk.[367][368][363][365]
In 2022, Russian state media told stories of genocide and mass graves full of ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine. One set of graves outside Luhansk was dug when intense fighting in 2014 cut off the electricity in the local morgue. Amnesty International investigated 2014 Russian claims of mass graves filled with hundreds of bodies and instead found isolated incidents of extrajudicial executions by both sides.[369][370]
Putin and Russian media have described the government of Ukraine as being led by neo-Nazis persecuting ethnic Russians who are in need of protection by Russia, despite the fact that Ukraine's President Zelensky is Jewish.[371][372][370]
Reactions
To the Russian invasion in Crimea
Ukrainian response
Interim Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov accused Russia of "provoking a conflict" by backing the seizure of the Crimean parliament building and other government offices on the Crimean peninsula. He compared Russia's military actions to the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, when Russian troops occupied parts of the Republic of Georgia and the breakaway enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia were established under the control of Russian-backed administrations. He called on Putin to withdraw Russian troops from Crimea and stated that Ukraine will "preserve its territory" and "defend its independence".[374] On 1 March, he warned, "Military intervention would be the beginning of war and the end of any relations between Ukraine and Russia."[375] On 1 March, Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov placed the Armed Forces of Ukraine on full alert and combat readiness.[376]
The Ministry of Temporarily Occupied Territories and IDPs was established by Ukrainian government on 20 April 2016 to manage occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea regions affected by Russian military intervention of 2014.[377]
NATO and United States military response
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On 4 March 2014, the United States pledged $1 billion in aid to Ukraine.[378] Russia's actions increased tensions in nearby countries historically within its sphere of influence, particularly the Baltic and Moldova. All have large Russian-speaking populations, and Russian troops are stationed in the breakaway Moldovan territory of Transnistria.[379] Some devoted resources to increasing defensive capabilities,[380] and many requested increased support from the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which they had joined in recent years.[379][380] The conflict "reinvigorated" NATO, which had been created to face the Soviet Union, but had devoted more resources to "expeditionary missions" in recent years.[381]
In 2014, Alexander Vershbow said, that Russia "have declared NATO as an adversary", adding, that NATO must do the same.[382] Initial deployments in March and early April were restricted to increased air force monitoring and training in the Baltics and Poland, and single ships in the Black Sea.[382][383] On 16 April, officials announced the deployment of ships to the Baltic and Mediterranean Seas, and increasing exercises in "Eastern Europe". The measures were apparently limited so as not to appear aggressive.[384] Leaders emphasized that the conflict was not a new Cold War[385] but Robert Legvold disagreed.[385] Others[who?] supported applying George F. Kennan's concept of containment to possible Russian expansion.[386][387] Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul said, "We are enduring a drift of disengagement in world affairs. As we pull back, Russia is pushing forward. I worry about the new nationalism that Putin has unleashed and understand that many young Russians also embrace these extremist ideas."[388]
In addition to diplomatic support in its conflict with Russia, the U.S. provided Ukraine with US$1.5 billion in military aid during the 2010s.[389] In 2018 the U.S. House of Representatives passed a provision blocking any training of Azov Battalion of the Ukrainian National Guard by American forces. In previous years, between 2014 and 2017, the U.S. House of Representatives passed amendments banning support of Azov, but due to pressure from the Pentagon, the amendments were quietly lifted.[390][391][392] On 24 September 2019 the U.S. House of Representatives initiated an impeachment inquiry against incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump in the wake of scandal surrounding a phone conversation that Trump had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 25 July.[393] In December 2021, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone for two hours and they discussed the issue. Biden mentioned that he would put sanctions on Russia if Russian army men entered Ukraine.[394]
International diplomatic and economic responses
Several members of the international community have expressed grave concerns over the Russian intervention in Ukraine and criticized Russia for its actions in post-revolutionary Ukraine, including the United States,[395] the United Kingdom,[396] France,[397] Germany,[398] Italy,[399] Poland,[400] Canada,[401] Japan,[402] the Netherlands,[403] Norway,[404] South Korea,[405] Georgia,[406] Moldova,[407] Turkey,[408] Australia[409] and the European Union as a whole, which condemned Russia, accusing it of breaking international law and violating Ukrainian sovereignty.[410] Many of these countries implemented economic sanctions against Russia or Russian individuals or companies, to which Russia responded in kind. Amnesty International has expressed its belief that Russia is fuelling the conflict.[411] The UN Security Council held a special meeting 1 March 2014 on the crisis.[412] The G7 countries condemned the violation of Ukraine's sovereignty, and urged Russia to withdraw.[413][414] All G7 leaders are refusing to participate in it due to assumed violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, in contravention of Russia's obligations under the UN Charter and its 1997 basing agreement with Ukraine.[415]
In 2014, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly published a statement (the "Baku Declaration") discussing the events in Ukraine in detail. Specifically, it pointed out that Russia is a signatory of the Helsinki Accords and committed to observing its rules, including respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other member countries, as well as the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances that specifically guaranteed the integrity of Ukraine's borders. As noted by OSCE, "Russian Federation has, since February 2014, violated every one of the ten Helsinki principles in its relations with Ukraine, some in a clear, gross and thus far uncorrected manner, and is in violation with the commitments it undertook in the Budapest Memorandum, as well as other international obligations". OSCE condemned actions of the Russian Federation, calling them "coercion" and "military aggression" that are "designed to subordinate the rights inherent in Ukraine's sovereignty to the Russian Federation's own interests".[416] In 2016 OSCE deputy mission head in Ukraine Alexander Hug summarized the mission's two years of observations stating that "since the beginning of the conflict" the mission has seen "armed people with Russian insignia", vehicle tracks crossing border between Russia and Ukraine as well as talked to prisoners who were declaring themselves Russian soldiers.[417]
In January 2015, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) accepted a resolution that noted "the direct involvement of the Russian Federation in the emergence and worsening of the situation in these parts of Ukraine" and called both sides to fully respect the terms of Minsk Agreement.[418]
In June 2015, OSCE PA repeated condemnation of "Russia's aggression against Ukraine, including its illegal annexation and occupation of Crimea" ("Helsinki Declaration").[419] On 28 August 2015 Poland's newly elected President Andrzej Duda said in Berlin during talks with German President Joachim Gauck and Chancellor Angela Merkel that Poland is already taking in large numbers of refugees from the Ukraine conflict as part of the EU's refugee programme, and does not intend to join in talks conducted since 2014 by France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine.[420] The policy of strategic partnership between Kyiv and Warsaw requires further strengthening of military and technical cooperation,[421] best exemplified by the Lithuanian–Polish–Ukrainian Brigade,[422] but the more immediate task, informed Poland's State secretary Krzysztof Szczerski, is Ukraine's constitutional reform leading to broad decentralization of power, in which Poland's post-Soviet experience is going to be used.[421]
In August 2017, President Donald Trump signed the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which has targeted Russia's oil and gas industry, defence and security sectors, and financial institutions.[423][424] Trump's administration imposed sanctions on several third countries for buying Russian weapons.[425][426]
Financial markets
The initial reaction to the escalation of tensions in Crimea caused the Russian and European stock market to tumble.[427] The intervention caused the Swiss franc climbed to a 2-year high against the dollar and 1-year high against the Euro. The Euro and the US dollar both rose, as did the Australian dollar.[428] The Russian stock market declined by more than 10 percent, whilst the Russian ruble hit all-time lows against the US dollar and the Euro.[429][430][431] The Russian central bank hiked interest rates and intervened in the foreign exchange markets to the tune of $12 billion to try to stabilize its currency.[428] Prices for wheat and grain rose, with Ukraine being a major exporter of both crops.[432]
Later in March 2014, the reaction of the financial markets to the Crimea annexation was surprisingly mellow, with global financial markets rising immediately after the referendum held in Crimea, one explanation being that the sanctions were already priced in following the earlier Russian incursion.[433] Other observers considered that the positive reaction of the global financial markets on Monday 17 March 2014, after the announcement of sanctions against Russia by the EU and the US, revealed that these sanctions were too weak to hurt Russia.[434] In early August 2014, the German DAX was down by 6 percent for the year, and 11 percent since June, over concerns Russia, Germany's 13th biggest trade partner, would retaliate against sanctions.[435]
To the Russian intervention in Donbas
- Amnesty International considers the war to be "an international armed conflict" and presented an independent satellite photo analysis proving involvement of regular Russian army in the conflict. It accuses Ukrainian militia and separatist forces as being responsible for war crimes and has called on all parties, including Russia, to stop violations of the laws of war.[411] Amnesty has expressed its belief that Russia is fueling the conflict, 'both through direct interference and by supporting the separatists in the East' and called on Russia to 'stop the steady flow of weapons and other support to an insurgent force heavily implicated in gross human rights violations.'[411]
NATO – The Russian government's decision to send a truck convoy into Luhansk on 22 August 2014 without Ukrainian consent was condemned by NATO and several NATO member states, including the United States.[436] NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen called it "a blatant breach of Russia's international commitments" and "a further violation of Ukraine's sovereignty by Russia".[437]
European Union – Leaders warned that Russia faced harsher economic sanctions than the EU had previously imposed if it failed to withdraw troops from Ukraine.[438] In 2015 the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe [PACE] published a resolution that openly speaks about a "Russian aggression in Ukraine".[439]
Ukraine – Chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament Oleksandr Turchynov said "It's a hybrid war that Russia has begun against Ukraine, a war with the participation of the Russian security services and the army."[440]
United States – US Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power commented on the invasion by noting that "At every step, Russia has come before this council to say everything but the truth. It has manipulated, obfuscated and outright lied. Russia has to stop lying and has to stop fuelling this conflict."[163][441] The United States government said it supported stiffer sanctions as well.[442]- Nordic countries – On 9 April 2015, a joint declaration by the ministers of defence of Norway, Denmark, Finland and Sweden and the minister of foreign affairs of Iceland (which does not have a ministry of defence) was brought by the Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten. The declaration first asserts that the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the illegal annexation of Crimea is a violation of international law and other international treaties and that the Nordic countries must judge Russia not by the rhetoric of the Kremlin, but by the actions of the country. After pointing out that Russia has increased its military exercise and intelligence gathering activity in the Baltic and Northern areas violating Nordic borders and jeopardizing civilian air traffic, the declaration states the intention of the Nordic countries to face this new situation with solidarity and increased cooperation. The Nordic unity commitment is extended to include solidarity with the Baltic countries and to a collaboration within NATO and EU to strengthen also the unity within these entities and to maintain the cross-Atlantic link.[443]
Russian protests
Street protests against the war in Ukraine have arisen in Russia itself. Notable protests first occurred in March[444][445] and large protests occurred in September when "tens of thousands" protested the war in Ukraine with a peace march in downtown Moscow on Sunday, 21 September 2014, "under heavy police supervision".[446]
Critics of Vladimir Putin also express cautious criticism in the press and social media. Garry Kasparov, a consistent critic of Putin, whom he has called "a revanchist KGB thug", has written[447] on the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 shootdown and called for Western action.[448][449]
An August 2014 survey by the Levada Centre reported that only 13% of those Russians polled would support the Russian government in an open war with Ukraine.[450]
Ukrainian public opinion
A poll of the Ukrainian public, excluding Russian-annexed Crimea, was taken by the International Republican Institute from 12 to 25 September 2014.[451] 89% of those polled opposed 2014 Russian military intervention in Ukraine. As broken down by region, 78% of those polled from Eastern Ukraine (including Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) opposed said intervention, along with 89% in Southern Ukraine, 93% in Central Ukraine, and 99% in Western Ukraine.[451] As broken down by native language, 79% of Russian speakers and 95% of Ukrainian speakers opposed the intervention. 80% of those polled said the country should remain a unitary country.[451]
A poll of the Crimean public in Russian-annexed Crimea was taken by the Ukrainian branch of Germany's biggest market research organization, GfK, on 16–22 January 2015. According to its results: "Eighty-two percent of those polled said they fully supported Crimea's inclusion in Russia, and another 11 percent expressed partial support. Only 4 percent spoke out against it."[452][453][454]
International reaction
In March 2014, Estonia's president Toomas Hendrik Ilves said: "Justification of a military invasion by a fabricated need to protect ethnic "compatriots" resuscitates the arguments used to annex Sudetenland in 1938."[455] During the Group of 20 (G-20) summit of world leaders in Brisbane, Australia in November 2014, an incident occurred during private meetings that became quite public. At the private leaders' retreat, held the weekend before the official opening of the summit, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper told Russian President Vladimir Putin "I guess I'll shake your hand but I have only one thing to say to you: You need to get out of Ukraine." The incident occurred as Putin approached Harper and a group of G-20 leaders and extended his hand toward Harper. After the event was over, a "spokesman for the Russian delegation said Putin's response was: 'That's impossible because we are not there'."[456]
In March 2015, NATO's top commander in Europe General Philip M. Breedlove has been criticized by German politicians and diplomats as spreading "dangerous propaganda" by constantly inflating the figures of Russian military involvement in an attempt to subvert the diplomatic solution of the war in Donbas spearheaded by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.[457][458] According to Germany's Der Spiegel magazine, "the German government, supported by intelligence gathered by the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Germany's foreign intelligence agency, did not share the view of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR)."[457]
In 2017, Ukraine opened a case against Russia for involvement and financing of terrorism and racial discrimination in military occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea and part of Donbas.[459][460]
In 2022, UK defence minister Ben Wallace characterized President Putin's article "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" as "a seven-thousand-word essay that puts ethnonationalism at the heart of his ambitions… It provides the skewed and selective reasoning to justify, at best, the subjugation of Ukraine and at worse the forced unification of that sovereign country."[461]
A Normandy Format meeting was planned between Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France in Paris on 26 January 2022,[462] with a follow-up phone call between French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Putin.[463] Ukraine fulfilled Russia's condition for a meeting in Paris and decided to withdraw from Parliament the controversial draft law on the reintegration of the Crimea and Donbas region, because the law was contrary to the Minsk peace agreements.[464][465]
In February 2022, Russia held the rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council, and diplomats from other countries warned that Russia could take advantage of the UNSC presidency to delay meetings on actions by Russia.[466]
The deliveries of the United States lethal aid to Ukraine included .50 BMG caliber ammunition, M141 Bunker Defeat Munition and FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missiles.[467] US also intends to transfer Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine, previously used by Afghan Air Force.[468] In January 2022, the Biden administration approved deliveries of U.S.-made FIM-92 Stinger surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine.[469] On 21 January 2022, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki stated that "In the last year alone, we committed $650 million in security assistance to Ukraine; in total, since 2014, we've committed $2.7 billion. These deliveries are ongoing, including today there's more deliveries coming."[470][471][472][473]
To the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine
See also
- List of ongoing armed conflicts
- Military history of the Russian Federation
- Buhas bus attack near Volnovakha
- Russian military intervention in Syria
- Temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine
- Occupied territories of Georgia
- Ministry of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories
- The Forgotten (2019 film)
- Cherkasy (film)
- Russian-Ukrainian cyberwarfare
- Russian sabotage activities in Ukraine
- Related to Ukrainian military supply chain
- 2014 Vrbětice ammunition warehouses explosions in the Czech Republic
- 2015 poisoning of Emiliyan Gebrev and several arms depot explosions in Bulgaria[474]
- 2015 depot explosion in Svatove, Ukraine
- 2017 Kalynivka ammunition depot explosion, Ukraine
- 2017 depot explosion in Balakliia, Ukraine
- Maritime activities
- Black Sea incidents involving Russia and Ukraine
- Russian restrictions on navigation in the Kerch Strait; soft blockade of Ukraine's Azov Sea coast
- Russia–Ukraine gas disputes
Notes
- ^ Arms, military exercises and general aid.
- ^ There remain "some contradictions and inherent problems" regarding date on which the annexation began.[5] Ukraine claims 20 February 2014 as the date of "the beginning of the temporary occupation of Crimea and Sevastopol by Russia", citing timeframe inscribed on the Russian medal "For the Return of Crimea",[6] and in 2015 the Ukrainian parliament officially designated the date as such.[7] On 20 February 2014, Vladimir Konstantinov who at that time was a chairman of the republican council of Crimea and representing the Party of Regions expressed his thoughts about seccession of the region from Ukraine.[8] On 23 February 2014 the Russian ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov was recalled to Moscow to due "worsening of situation in Ukraine". In early March 2015, President Putin stated in a Russian movie about annexation of Crimea that he ordered the operation to "restore" Crimea to Russia following an all-night emergency meeting of 22–23 February 2014,[5][9] and in 2018 Russian Foreign Minister claimed that earlier "start date" on the medal was due to "technical misunderstanding".[10]
- ^ Includes 400–500 Russian servicemen (US claim, March 2015)[21]
- ^ Russian: pоссийско-украинская война, romanized: rossiysko-ukrainskaya voyna; Ukrainian: російсько-українська війна, romanized: rosiisko-ukrainska viina.
References
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На брифинге Захарова подчеркнула, что на происходящее Москва и Минск вынуждены адекватно реагировать. В частности, путем совместного патрулирования воздушного пространства, регулярных совместных тренировок, а также учений. Так, уже в феврале пройдет совместное учение 'Союзная решимость-2022'. На территорию Беларуси уже начали прибывать подразделения из состава ВС РФ.
[At the briefing, Zakharova stressed that Moscow and Minsk were forced to respond adequately to what was happening. In particular, through joint patrolling of the airspace, regular joint training, and exercises. So, in February, the joint exercise "Allied Resolve-2022" will be held. Units from the RF Armed Forces have already begun to arrive on the territory of Belarus.] - ^ "Belarus joins Russia's war on Ukraine". politico.eu. 1 March 2022.
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Mr. Prystaiko (Ukraine): ... In that regard, I have to remind the Council that the official medal that was produced by the Russian Federation for the so-called return of Crimea has the dates on it, starting with 20 February, which is the day before that agreement was brought to the attention of the Security Council by the representative of the Russian Federation. Therefore, the Russian Federation started – not just planned, but started – the annexation of Crimea the day before we reached the first agreement and while President Yanukovych was still in power.
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Almost everyone lost the Russo-Ukrainian war: Russia, Ukraine, the EU, the United States. The only winner was China.
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By March 26, the annexation was essentially complete, and Russia began returning seized military hardware to Ukraine.
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A CNN team in the area encountered more than one pro-Russian militia checkpoint on the road from Sevastopol to Simferopol.
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A total of 82% of the population of the Crimea fully support Russia's annexation of the peninsula, according to a poll carried out by the GfK Group research institute in Ukraine, Ukrainian online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda reported on Wednesday. Another 11% of respondents said that they rather support the annexation of Crimea, while 4% were against it.
- ^ Ilves, Toomas Hendrik (27 March 2014). "Toomas Hendrik Ilves: The United States and Europe need a new rulebook for Russia". The Washington Post. Retrieved 11 April 2015.
- ^ "Stephen Harper at G20 tells Vladimir Putin to 'get out of Ukraine' : Annual summit dominated by Western anger towards Putin". CBC News. cbc.ca. 15 November 2014. Retrieved 16 November 2014.
- ^ a b Gebauer, Matthias; Hoffmann, Christiane; Hujer, Marc; Repinski, Gordon; Schepp, Matthias; Schult, Christoph; Stark, Holger; Wiegrefe, Klaus (6 March 2015). "Breedlove's Bellicosity: Berlin Alarmed by Aggressive NATO Stance on Ukraine". Der Spiegel. Retrieved 7 March 2015.
- ^ Wade, Robert H. (31 March 2015). "The Ukraine crisis is not what it seems". Le Monde diplomatique. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
- ^ Oliphant, Roland (6 March 2017). "Ukraine sues Russia in International Court of Justice for 'financing terrorism' and discrimination". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 10 January 2022.
- ^ "Latest developments | Application of the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism and of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (Ukraine v. Russian Federation) | International Court of Justice". www.icj-cij.org. Retrieved 24 January 2020.
- ^ "An article by the Defence Secretary on the situation in Ukraine". GOV.UK. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
- ^ "Political advisers to hold four-way talks on Ukraine in Paris". Thomson Reuters. 22 January 2022. Archived from the original on 24 January 2022.
- ^ "Scholz, Macron say diplomacy can fix Ukraine-Russia standoff". Deutsche Welle. 25 January 2022. Archived from the original on 25 January 2022.
- ^ "At Russia's request, Kiev withdrew the law on Crimea and Donbas from parliament". News Fox24. 25 January 2022.
- ^ "Macron plans diplomatic phone call with Putin to calm Ukrainian crisis". The Irish Times. 26 January 2022.
- ^ Nichols, Michelle (13 February 2022). "Explainer: Can the U.N. do more than just talk about Russia, Ukraine crisis?". Reuters. Retrieved 13 February 2022.
- ^ "Ukraine receives SMAW grenade launchers from United States". NV.UA. 24 January 2022.
- ^ "U.S. planning to transfer Mi-17 military helicopters to Ukraine". Ukrinform. 22 January 2022. Archived from the original on 22 January 2022.
- ^ "U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine: A Silver Bullet?". RAND Corporation. 21 January 2022.
- ^ "Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki". whitehouse.gov. 21 January 2022.
- ^ "US allows NATO allies to send American-made weapons to Ukraine". The Hill. 20 January 2022.
- ^ VALERIE INSINNA and AARON MEHTA (Feb 2022) Biden orders forces to Baltics, warns Russia plans further invasion of Ukraine Topic Summary Of Counter Measures
- ^ Mark Cancian (Dec 2021) What would it take to defend Ukraine? Potentially, billions of dollars. $27 billion is one estimate
- ^ "Bulgaria investigates arms depot blast link to Russia". Deutsche Welle. 21 April 2021.
Further reading
- Bowen, Andrew (2017). "Coercive Diplomacy and the Donbas: Explaining Russian Strategy in Eastern Ukraine". Journal of Strategic Studies. 42 (3–4): 312–343. doi:10.1080/01402390.2017.1413550. S2CID 158522112.
- Bremmer, Ian (1994). "The Politics of Ethnicity: Russians in the New Ukraine". Europe-Asia Studies. 46 (2): 261–283. doi:10.1080/09668139408412161.
- Hagendoorn, A.; Linssen, H.; Tumanov, S. V. (2001). Intergroup Relations in States of the former Soviet Union: The Perception of Russians. New York: Taylor & Francis. ISBN 978-1-84169-231-9.
- Legvold, Robert (2013). Russian Foreign Policy in the Twenty-first Century and the Shadow of the Past. New York: Columbia University Press. ISBN 978-0-231-51217-6.
External links
 |
Wikimedia Commons has media related to Russo-Ukrainian war. |
- Гай-Нижник Павло Павлович Росія проти України (1990–2016 рр.): від політики шантажу і примусу до війни на поглинання та спроби знищення. – К.: «МП Леся», 2017. – 332 с. ISBN 978-617-7530-02-1
- "Anchor quits: I can't be part of network 'that whitewashes' Putin's actions". CNN World. 5 March 2014. Retrieved 11 April 2015.
- "Russia's invasion of Ukraine (March 2 live updates)". Kyiv Post. 2 March 2014. Retrieved 11 April 2015.
- "Путін vs народ України. 2 березня. ОНЛАЙН" [Putin vs the people of Ukraine. 2 March. ONLINE] (in Ukrainian). Ukrayinska Pravda. 2 March 2014. Retrieved 11 April 2015.
- "Ukraine crisis: an essential guide to everything that's happened so far". The Guardian. Retrieved 11 April 2015.
- Granholm, Niklas; Malminen, Johannes; Persson, Gudrun (June 2014). "A Rude Awakening. Ramifications of Russian Aggression Towards Ukraine" (PDF). Swedish Defence Research Agency. 91 pages. Archived from the original (PDF) on 10 November 2014. Retrieved 11 April 2015.
- "Ukraine crisis: Timeline". BBC Online. 13 November 2014. Retrieved 11 April 2015.
- "As it happened: Russia troops 'inside Ukraine'". BBC News. Retrieved 11 April 2015.
- Список российских военных и добровольцев, погибших на Украине [List of Russian military and volunteers who were killed in Ukraine]. openrussia.org (in Russian). 22 December 2014. Archived from the original on 19 October 2017. Retrieved 11 April 2015.
- Открытая Россия устанавливает личности погибших из списка "Груз-200" [Open Russia is in the process of establishing identities of the victims from the list "Груз-200"]. openrussia.org (in Russian). 1 April 2015. Archived from the original on 19 October 2017. Retrieved 11 April 2015.
- "Bellingcat Launches the Ukraine Conflict Vehicle Tracking Project". Bellingcat. 3 February 2015. Retrieved 11 April 2015.
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- Russo-Ukrainian War
- Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation
- War in Donbas
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