International topics

• Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2020-44 Shutao Cao, Wei Dong

  We examine the macro implications of commodity price shocks in a model with multiple production sectors that are interconnected within a commodity-exporting small open economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, F, F4, F41

• The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil

  Staff Working Paper 2020-39 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden

  How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q47
• June 24, 2020

  Bank of Canada contributes to new publications by the Network for Greening the Financial System

  As a member of the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), the Bank of Canada contributed to three publications that aim to improve global understanding of the impact of climate change on the financial system and world economy.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics, Monetary policy

• Scenario Analysis and the Economic and Financial Risks from Climate Change

  Staff Discussion Paper 2020-3 Erik Ens, Craig Johnston

  This paper adapts climate-economy models that have been applied in other contexts for use in climate-related scenario analysis. We consider illustrative scenarios for the global economy that could generate economic and financial risks. Our results suggest there are significant economic risks from climate change and the move to a low-carbon economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, D, D5, D58, E, E5, E50, O, O4, O44, P, P1, P18, Q, Q4, Q5, Q54, Q55

• Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute

  Staff Working Paper 2020-10 Jinggang Guo, Craig Johnston

  We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Market structure and pricing, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, Q, Q1, Q17

• IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity

  Technical Report No. 116 Patrick Blagrave, Claudia Godbout, Justin-Damien Guénette, René Lalonde, Nikita Perevalov

  We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F0, F01, F3, F32, F4, F47
• February 5, 2020

  Securing prosperity is up to all of us

  Speech summary Carolyn A. Wilkins Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins explains that Canada is well-positioned to secure prosperity and avoid a long period of slow growth if we take the right steps.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity
• February 5, 2020

  Our Economic Destiny: Written in R-stars?

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about how to navigate slow growth and discusses the types of policies that would help secure long-term prosperity.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity
• December 12, 2019

  The Bank of Canada’s plans for 2020

  Speech summary Stephen S. Poloz Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario

  In his traditional year-end speech, Governor Stephen S. Poloz described some of the long-term forces affecting the global and Canadian economies that will shape the Bank’s work in 2020.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Economic models, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Productivity
• December 12, 2019

  Big Issues Ahead: The Bank’s 2020 Vision

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how long-term global economic forces will drive the Bank of Canada’s work agenda in 2020 and beyond.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Economic models, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Productivity