2022 Ontario general election

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2022 Ontario general election
← 2018 On or before June 2, 2022 (2022-06-02)
124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Doug Ford in Toronto - 2018 (41065995960) (cropped).jpg
Horwath_infobox.PNG
Steven_Del_Duca_-_2015.png
Leader Doug Ford Andrea Horwath Steven Del Duca
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic Liberal
Leader since March 10, 2018 March 7, 2009 March 7, 2020
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Hamilton Centre Running in
Vaughan—Woodbridge[1]
Last election 76 seats, 40.50% 40 seats, 33.56% 7 seats, 19.59%
Current seats 69 40 7
Seats needed Steady Increase23 Increase56
 
Mike Schreiner 4431 (37439753570) (cropped2).jpg
NBP
Derek Sloan Image (cropped).jpg
Leader Mike Schreiner Jim Karahalios Derek Sloan[2]
Party Green New Blue Ontario Party
Leader since May 16, 2009 November 8, 2020 December 16, 2021
Leader's seat Guelph TBA TBA
Last election 1 seat, 4.60% pre-creation 0 seats, 0.04%
Current seats 1 1 1
Seats needed Increase62 Increase62 Increase62
Incumbent Premier

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative



The 2022 Ontario general election will be held on or before June 2, 2022. As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election.[3] The Legislative Assembly of Ontario can be dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario due to a motion of no confidence or if the Premier triggers a snap election. Since the current government has a majority, it is a near-certainty that any non-confidence vote would not pass. In terms of an unexpected snap election, on October 5, 2020, Ontario MPPs voted unanimously in favour of a motion stating that the government will not call an election prior to the fixed election date in 2022.[4][5]

Standings[edit]

Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
Party Party leader Seats
2018 Current
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 76 69
New Democratic Andrea Horwath 40 40
Liberal Steven Del Duca 7 7
Green Mike Schreiner 1 1
New Blue Jim Karahalios 0 1
Ontario Party Derek Sloan 0 1
  Independent 4
Vacant 1
Total 124 124

Note that for purposes of the administration of the Assembly, parties with fewer than 12 seats are not recognized, and their members are treated as independent MPPs.[6]

Timeline[edit]

2018[edit]

2019[edit]

2020[edit]

2021[edit]

2022[edit]

Candidates[edit]

See also: Candidates of the 43rd Ontario general election

Incumbents not running for reelection[edit]

Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee New MPP
Don Valley West   Kathleen Wynne[34] Stephanie Bowman[35]
Simcoe—Grey   Jim Wilson[36] –
Thornhill   Gila Martow[37]
Windsor—Tecumseh   Percy Hatfield[38] Gemma Grey-Hall[39]
Kitchener South—Hespeler   Amy Fee[40] Jess Dixon[41]
Chatham-Kent—Leamington   Rick Nicholls[42]
Durham   Lindsey Park[26] –
Perth—Wellington   Randy Pettapiece[43]
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry   Jim McDonell[44]
Parry Sound—Muskoka   Norm Miller[45] Graydon Smith[46]
Essex   Taras Natyshak[47]
Kingston and the Islands   Ian Arthur[48]
Scarborough Centre   Christina Mitas[49]
Elgin-Middlesex-London   Jeff Yurek[33]

Opinion polls[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Source PC NDP Liberal Green Other Margin of error Sample size Polling type Lead
Leger December 13, 2021 [p 1] 38 28 25 5 5 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 10
EKOS November 25, 2021 [p 2] 32.8 23.1 28.3 5.2 10.5 ±4.1% 569 IVR 4.5
Innovative Research Group November 17, 2021 [p 3] 34.8 27 32.6 3.4 2.2 N/A 1000 Online 2.2
Leger November 14, 2021 [p 4] 34 26 31 6 3 ±3.1% 1,001 Online 3
Leger October 10, 2021 [p 5] 35 25 30 5 5 ±3.1% 1,003 Online 5
Angus Reid October 3, 2021 [p 6] 34 32 25 4 5 N/A 910 Online 2
Angus Reid June 7, 2021 [p 7] 37 33 22 6 3 ±2% 791 Online 4
Leger May 23, 2021 [p 8] 34 25 26 9 n/a ±3.1% 1,001 Online 8
Mainstreet Research May 16, 2021 [p 9] 33 28 27 6 6 ±3% 958 Online 5
Campaign Research May 8, 2021 [p 10] 36 25 28 7 4 ±2% 2,009 Online 8
Innovative Research Group May 4, 2021 [p 11] 32 22 36 8 2 N/A 481 Online 4
Abacus Data April 21, 2021 [p 12] 34 23 35 5 2 ±3.1% 1,007 Online 1
Innovative Research Group April 20, 2021 [p 13] 30 26 35 8 1 N/A 800 Online 5
Abacus Data April 14, 2021 [p 14] 34 23 34 5 4 ±3.5% 817 Online 0
Innovative Research Group April 13, 2021 [p 15] 32 24 33 8 2 N/A 704 Online 1
EKOS April 12, 2021 [p 16] 34.6 23.5 29.9 8.9 3 ±2.8% 1204 IVR 4.7
Campaign Research April 6, 2021 [p 17] 41 22 24 10 2 ±2.3% 1,886 Online 17
Leger March 22, 2021 [p 18] 38 28 23 8 3 ±3.1% 1,002 Online 10
Campaign Research March 11, 2021 [p 19] 43 25 20 9 3 ±2.7% 1,344 Online 18
Mainstreet Research February 16, 2021 [p 20] 43 22 25 6 4 ±3.08% 1,011 IVR 18
Campaign Research January 31, 2021 [p 21] 44 25 21 8 3 ±2.6% 1,427 Online 19
Abacus Data January 12, 2021 [p 22] 34 25 29 8 3 ±3.48% 793 Online 5
Mainstreet Research December 5, 2020 [p 23] 46.2 23.4 19.9 6.2 4.3 ±2.94% 1,014 IVR 22.8
Campaign Research December 3, 2020 [p 24] 45 20 24 8 5 ±3% 1,001 Online 21
Angus Reid November 30, 2020 [p 25] 42 28 22 5 3 N/A 1,049 Online 14
Campaign Research November 2, 2020 [p 26] 48 21 23 7 1 ±3% 1,118 Online 25
Abacus Data October 30, 2020 [p 27] 36 25 29 7 3 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 7
Abacus Data October 12, 2020 [p 28] 36 29 26 6 2 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 7
Campaign Research October 2, 2020 [p 29] 46 24 20 9 2 ±3% 1,017 Online 22
Campaign Research September 3, 2020 [p 30] 48 22 24 6 2 ±3% 1,129 Online 24
Angus Reid September 1, 2020 [p 31] 45 28 22 4 1 ±3% 1,026 Online 17
Campaign Research August 13, 2020 [p 32] 41 23 26 8 3 ±2% 2,013 Online 15
Innovative Research Group July 20, 2020 [p 33] 36 18 37 8 1 N/A 974 Online 1
Campaign Research July 10, 2020 [p 34] 45 20 27 7 1 ±3% 1,395 Online 18
Innovative Research Group June 23, 2020 [p 35] 31 21 39 9 1 N/A 838 Online 8
Mainstreet Research June 7, 2020 [p 36] 41.8 23.0 27.7 5.5 2.0 ±3% 1,068 IVR 14.1
Campaign Research June 2, 2020 [p 37] 44 22 27 6 2 ±2.5% 1,512 Online 17
Innovative Research Group June 1, 2020 [p 38] 33 20 38 9 0 N/A 698 Online 5
Angus Reid May 24, 2020 [p 39] 43 26 25 6 1 N/A 1,061 Online 17
Abacus Data May 22, 2020 [p 40] 36 19 38 5 2 ±4.1% 597 Online 2
Innovative Research Group May 5, 2020 [p 41] 34 18 39 7 1 N/A 791 Online 5
EKOS March 26, 2020 [p 42] 31.5 17.9 40.4 7.1 3.1 ±3.5% 774 IVR 8.9
Mainstreet Research March 20, 2020 [p 43] 33.1 23.2 33.0 6.9 3.8 ±2.73% 1,017 IVR 0.1
7 March 2020 Steven Del Duca is elected as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
Campaign Research March 5, 2020 [p 44] 32 28 28 10 2 ±2.9% 1,144 Online 4
Angus Reid February 28, 2020 [p 45] 36 31 24 8 1 ±3.0% 1,051 Online 5
Campaign Research February 26, 2020 [p 46] 32 28 29 9 3 ±3.1% 1,003 Online 3
Campaign Research February 9, 2020 [p 47] 30 26 30 11 3 ±2.5% 1,536 Online 0
EKOS January 19, 2020 [p 48] 31.1 21.2 36.2 9.1 2.3 ±3.9% 634 IVR 5.1
Pollara January 11, 2020 [p 49] 29 27 33 9 2 ±2.1% 2,198 Online 4
EKOS December 10, 2019 [p 50] 29.9 24.4 32.4 9.4 3.9 ±3.4% 811 IVR 2.5
Campaign Research September 9, 2019 [p 51] 32 27 28 11 2 ±3.17% 957 Online 4
Corbett Communications August 16, 2019 [p 52] 30 28 30 11 2 ±3.0% 1,099 Online 0
Corbett Communications July 10, 2019 [p 53] 28 26 28 15 3 ±3.0% 936 Online 0
Corbett Communications June 6, 2019 [p 54] 32 27 26 13 1 ±3.0% 1,555 Online 5
Mainstreet Research May 22, 2019 [p 55] 22.4 24.2 39.9 11.7 1.8 ±3.1% 996 IVR 15.7
Ipsos May 21, 2019 [p 56] 30 29 32 10[a] ±3.5% 1,000 Online 2
Corbett Communications May 3, 2019 [p 57] 35 25 27 12 1 ±2.4% 1,836 Online 8
Pollara May 1, 2019 [p 58] 30 31 26 11 1 ±2.5% 1,527 Online 1
Mainstreet Research March 22, 2019 [p 59] 34.4 26.6 26.0 9.4 3.6 ±2.73% 1,290 IVR 7.8
Innovative Research Group January 24, 2019 [p 60] 33 23 36 7 1 751 Online 3
Mainstreet Research January 17, 2019 [p 61] 41.4 27.0 22.6 7.0 2.2 ±2.92% 1,127 IVR 14.4
EKOS December 3, 2018 [p 62] 34.3 26.1 28.0 9.4 2.3 ±3.1% 1,025 IVR 6.3
Campaign Research November 9, 2018 [p 63] 34 25 32 7 2 ±2.3% 1,830 Online 2
Mainstreet Research November 7, 2018 [p 64] 42.2 26.5 21.3 6.4 3.5 ±2.79% 1,229 IVR 15.7
Innovative Research Group October 28, 2018 [p 65] 35 25 32 7 1 1,628 Online 3
Abacus Data October 1, 2018 [p 66] 36 29 24 8 3 1,500 Online 7
Mainstreet Research July 17, 2018 [p 67] 41.7 27.8 21.3 6.7 2.5 ±2.27% 1,861 IVR 13.9
29 June 2018 Doug Ford is sworn in as Premier of Ontario
Innovative Research Group June 21, 2018 [p 60] 37 36 19 7 2 ±4.0% 607 Telephone 1
14 June 2018 John Fraser becomes interim leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
7 June 2018 Kathleen Wynne resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
2018 election June 7, 2018 N/A 40.50 33.56 19.59 4.60 1.75 N/A 5,744,860 N/A 6.94
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Source Margin of error Sample size Polling type Lead
PC NDP Liberal Green Other


Target seats[edit]

Below are listed all the electoral districts in which the winning candidate won by a margin of less than 5%. The Green Party's most marginal opportunity was in Parry Sound—Muskoka where the party finished 3rd with the PCs having a 28.05% margin.

PC targets[edit]

Rank Electoral District Winning party 2018 2018 Margin PC's place 2018 Result
1 Scarborough—Guildwood   Liberal 0.21% 2nd
2 Brampton Centre   New Democratic 0.26% 2nd
3 Don Valley West   Liberal 0.40% 2nd
4 Brampton North   New Democratic 1.25% 2nd
5 Don Valley East   Liberal 2.84% 2nd
6 St. Catharines   New Democratic 3.02% 2nd
7 York South—Weston   New Democratic 3.12% 2nd
8 Oshawa   New Democratic 3.15% 2nd
9 Orléans   Liberal 3.85% 2nd
10 Essex   New Democratic 4.97% 2nd

NDP targets[edit]

Rank Electoral District Winning party 2018 2018 Margin NDP in 2018 Result
1 Ottawa West—Nepean   PC 0.35% 2nd
2 Brantford—Brant   PC 1.09% 2nd
3 Sault Ste. Marie   PC 1.289% 2nd
4 Brampton West   PC 1.291% 2nd
5 Kitchener—Conestoga   PC 1.60% 2nd
6 Kitchener South—Hespeler   PC 1.81% 2nd
7 Scarborough—Rouge Park   PC 2.29% 2nd
8 Thunder Bay—Superior North   Liberal 2.71% 2nd
9 Peterborough—Kawartha   PC 3.92% 2nd
10 Cambridge   PC 4.48% 2nd

Liberal targets[edit]

Rank Electoral District Winning party 2018 2018 Margin Liberal's place 2018 Result
1 Thunder Bay—Atikokan   New Democratic 0.25% 2nd
2 Eglinton—Lawrence   PC 1.93% 2nd
3 Toronto—St. Paul's   New Democratic 2.57% 2nd
4 Ottawa West—Nepean   PC 3.52% 3rd

Notes

  1. ^ Includes the Ontario Green Party.

References[edit]

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  65. ^ https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/OEA-2018-Presentation.pdf
  66. ^ "Abacus Data | Ontario PCs lead amidst slight Liberal recovery and NDP slide". abacusdata.ca.
  67. ^ "Ontarians Like Ford But Don't Agree With Scrapping Both Sex-Ed Curriculum and Cap and Trade Program". Mainstreet Research. July 2018. Retrieved 9 January 2022.

External links[edit]

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