2022 Zagreb Tu-141 crash

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Zagreb Tu-141 crash
M-141 Cruise Missile.JPG
Tu-141 Strizh at Central Air Force Museum, Monino, Russia, similar to one crashed in Zagreb
Accident
Date10 March 2022
SummaryCrashed, under investigation
SiteZagreb, Croatia
45°47′4″N 15°57′0″E / 45.78444°N 15.95000°E / 45.78444; 15.95000Coordinates: 45°47′4″N 15°57′0″E / 45.78444°N 15.95000°E / 45.78444; 15.95000
Aircraft
Aircraft typeTupolev Tu-141
OperatorUnidentified[1]
Flight originSomewhere in Ukraine
(suspected)[2]
DestinationUnknown
Occupants0

On 10 March 2022 at 23:01 CET, an unidentified Soviet-made Tupolev Tu-141 reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) crashed in Zagreb, the capital of Croatia. With unidentified operator and unknown destination (as of March 2022), the UAV origin is connected to military actions during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Technological background[edit]

The Tupolev Tu-141 is a Soviet-made unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) made in the late 1970s.[3] It weighs almost six tons, and it is launched off a truck where its flight path is also programmed.[4] Analysts describe that after its launch, Tu-141 behaves more like a modern cruise missile than a traditional UAV.[2] When its flight is completed, the aircraft descends to the ground using parachutes so it can be reused.[4] Range of the aircraft is 1,000 km (620 mi, 540 nmi).[5]

Crash[edit]

[Interactive fullscreen map]

The unmanned aerial vehicle entered Romanian airspace around 23:23 EET, where it was observed by the Romanian Air Force and flew for 3 minutes.[6] Afterwards, it continued flying through Hungarian airspace for the next 40 minutes, where it was also observed by the Hungarian Air Force.[7] It then entered Croatian airspace flying at a speed of 700 km/h (380 kn; 430 mph) and altitude of 1,300 metres (4,300 ft),[8] where it was picked up by Croatian military radar.[9] After spending seven minutes in Croatian airspace, it crashed in the Jarun neighborhood of the Croatian capital, some 50 m (160 ft) away from the Stjepan Radić Student Residence Hall. The UAV's impact to the ground knocked one man off his bicycle and damaged 40 cars parked nearby.[10] It also woke up and upset the student population in the dormitory.[11][12][13]

The Seismological Service of Croatia recorded seismic waves in time of the UAV's impact with an epicenter very close to the actual crash site.[14][15]

Investigation[edit]

Croatian civil and military police quickly sealed off the crash perimeter. On the next morning, American analyst Tyler Rogoway identified the aircraft to most likely be a Soviet era Tupolev Tu-141,[16] which was also corroborated by Cyrillic inscriptions and red star insignia found on the scattered debris near the crash site. There were also several parachutes hanging on the nearby trees.[17] Throughout 12 March, Croatian Army continued the excavation of a remaining major part of the debris, which was wedged in the ground.[18] The debris was taken to a secret location.[19] On the same day, the head of Military police of Chief of Staff of Croatian Army brigadier Vlado Kovačević said that the aircraft's black box was recovered and that some fragments point to the possibility that the aircraft was also carrying an explosive device.[20]

In an interview on 13 March, the Croatian Minister of Defence, Mario Banožić, confirmed that parts belonging to explosive device were found in the debris of the drone.[21] He also added that the weight of the explosive could have been up to 120 kg.[22][12]

On 15 March 2022, a source close to the MoD of Croatia was cited as saying that the investigation had concluded that the crashed drone belonged to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and carried a bomb that was meant for striking Russia's positions, but the drone had strayed off course and crashed after it ran out of fuel.[23] Prime minister of Croatia, Andrej Plenković said to the media on March 17, that UAV flew all the way to Croatia because Romanian and Hungarian radars did not identify the incoming object as a real threat, due to the fact that there were several false alarms in days before the incident and thought that it was a glitch. Given the fact that neither Romanian or Hungarian radars reported the object, NATO in turn could not order the interception of the UAV.[24]

Reactions[edit]

Domestic[edit]

The slow or non-existent reaction from air defence services caused outrage among the Croatian media and public,[25][26] with some comparing the incident to Mathias Rust's flight to the Red Square in 1987.[27]

Croatian president Zoran Milanović described the crash as "a serious incident" and added on that "in such situations you depend on NATO [...] while there was obviously some failure there".[28]

The prime minister of Croatia, Andrej Plenković, said on 12 March that "[t]his is a real threat. NATO and the EU were supposed to react. We will not tolerate such situation [...] we were very lucky. This could have fallen on a nuclear power plant in Hungary." He also said that he wrote a letter to the Secretary General of NATO about the situation.[10]

The mayor of Zagreb, Tomislav Tomašević, held a press conference saying that "no people were hurt during the impact, but there is some property damage".[29] On 12 March 2022 Tomašević criticized certain unnamed foreign media sources for allegedly misrepresenting the location of the crash site. He stated: "I must admit that I am quite bothered by the information in foreign media sources, where I have read that such a large military aircraft had crashed in the suburbs of Zagreb, or that it had crashed next to Zagreb. No, it did not crash next to Zagreb, it crashed in the centre of Zagreb, in a densely populated area, and it did not crash in any type of suburban area."[30][31][32]

The Croatian online newspaper Index suggested the drone may have been meant to fly to a location in Ukraine called Yarun', rather than the Zagreb's neighborhood of Jarun which sounds similar.[33][34]

Distinguished Croatian Air Force pilot Ivan Selak criticized NATO's Combined Air Operations Centre in Torrejón, Spain, for not scrambling Romanian, Hungarian or Croatian Air Force due to the incoming object.[35]

On 12 March 2022, the Croatian daily newspaper Jutarnji list wrote that Croatia might ask the United States to deploy their Patriot missile systems in the country.[36]

Foreign[edit]

Ukrainian Defence Minister's adviser Markiyan Lubkivsky in a statement to Croatian media denied that the UAV which crashed in Zagreb belongs to Ukraine.[37] In subsequent reaction to the writing of Russian news agency TASS, State Special Communications Service of Ukraine also further claimed that the UAV's in question are in possession of both Russian and Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, according to them Ukrainian variants of Tu-141 UAVs are marked by Ukrainian coat of arms, while Russian variants have the red star insignia.[38]

The Russian Embassy in Zagreb also denied ownership of the crashed drone, saying that "the drone was produced on the territory of Ukraine" and that Russian Armed Forces had not used such drones since 1991.[39]

Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Péter Szijjártó, stated that Hungarian government joined the investigation about the UAV.[40]

The Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg commented that the drone crashed in Croatia was not an armed attack and not an armed drone.[41]

Aftermath[edit]

A joint exercise with the Croatian Air Force pilots and French pilots of the Rafale fighters from the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle was held on 15 March 2022. Flights of Croatian MiGs-21 and French Rafale were conducted in the airspace over Istria and Kvarner, Lika and Kordun, and over the cities of Rijeka, Pula, Zadar, and Zagreb.[42] Later that day, Croatian president and the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Croatia, Zoran Milanović, published a statement that said he had given an order to the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Croatia, Admiral Robert Hranj, whereby overflights of military aircraft over Zagreb and the country's other cities would be "strictly forbidden".[43][44]

On 17 March 2022, Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov continued to insist that Ukrainians were "not the ones who launched that drone towards Croatia"; he also expressed incomprehension of NATO's apparent failure to prevent the incident, saying, "The drone flew over several member states. How come you didn’t see it? Why didn’t you destroy it? Can you cover your own airspace?"[45]

Other flying incidents during the week[edit]

Suspicious flying objects over Hungary[edit]

The Hungarian air defense first detected and tracked the aircraft that passed through its airspace on Thursday night. It turned out to be a drone that crashed in Zagreb. The Hungarian air defense detected another suspicious radar signal a day later on March 11 around noon. Hungarian Gripen fighters took off from Kecskemét air base but found no suspicious flying object. The third case occurred during the afternoon with the same reaction and the same outcome.[46]

Drone crash in Romania[edit]

Just three days after the event, a drone crashed in the Tărpiu village close to the Transylvanian city of Bistrița in Romania. Unlike the UAV that crashed in Croatia, this one carried no armament. It was identified as a Russian Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone.[47][48][49] Like Croatia, Romania is a NATO member.

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Banožić o istrazi pada letjelice: "Sada već doznajemo na koje se načine to trebalo odigrati"". Dnevnik.hr (in Croatian). Retrieved 17 March 2022. Croatian: "Dron je definitivno došao s ukrajinskog teritorija, a zašto je lansiran i tko ga je lansirao to treba utvrditi istraga..." English translation: "The drone definitevly came from the territory of Ukraine, but why it was launched, and who launched it, ought to be determined by the investigation...".
  2. ^ a b "Plenković o padu drona u Zagrebu: Lansiran je iz Ukrajine, ali ne znamo čiji je. Ovakvu situaciju ne možemo tolerirati. Ovo je bila prijetnja na koju treba reagirati". Večernji list (in Croatian). Retrieved 12 March 2022.
  3. ^ Rogoway, Tyler. "Tu-141 "Strizh" Missile-Like Drone From The War In Ukraine Looks To Have Crashed In Croatia (Updated)". The Drive. Retrieved 12 March 2022.
  4. ^ a b "Je li dron promašio koordinate i pao u pogrešan Jarun, stručnjak otkriva jesu li ga slali u Yarun kod Žitomira". www.vecernji.hr (in Croatian). Retrieved 12 March 2022.
  5. ^ Munson Air International August 1997, p. 101.
  6. ^ "Rumunji objasnili zbog čega nisu srušili dron: 'Velika brzina, mala visina, vremenski uvjeti...'". tportal.hr. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  7. ^ "Mađari o dronu koji je pao u Zagrebu: Pratili smo ga dok nije napustio naš prostor". www.index.hr (in Croatian). Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  8. ^ Telegram.hr. "Vlada se konačno oglasila: dron je stigao preko Mađarske, letio je 700 km/h, na visini od 1300 m". Telegram.hr (in Croatian). Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  9. ^ "Uočili smo letjelicu čim je ušla u Hrvatsku, nadležni saznali tek nakon pada: "To je ozbiljan incident"". Dnevnik.hr (in Croatian). Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  10. ^ a b "VIDEO Plenković: Ovo je čista prijetnja. NATO nije reagirao, nećemo to tolerirati". www.index.hr (in Croatian). Retrieved 12 March 2022.
  11. ^ "Jutarnji list - 'Strašno je smrdjelo, čovjeku je pozlilo'; 'Načuo sam razgovor policajaca, evo što su rekli...'". www.jutarnji.hr (in Croatian). 11 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  12. ^ a b "Official: Drone that crashed in Croatia carried a bomb". Associated Press. Retrieved 18 March 2022.
  13. ^ "Soviet-era drone, believed from Ukraine, crashes in Croatia, Zagreb says". reuters.com. Retrieved 18 March 2022.
  14. ^ "Seizmološka služba: Zabilježili smo pad letjelice u Zagrebu". index.hr. Retrieved 16 March 2022.
  15. ^ "Preliminarna analiza seizmoloških zapisa na kojima je registriran pad letjelice dana 10.3.2022". pmf.unizg.hr. Retrieved 16 March 2022.
  16. ^ Rogoway, Tyler. "Tu-141 "Strizh" Missile-Like Drone From The War In Ukraine Looks To Have Crashed In Croatia (Updated)". The Drive. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  17. ^ "Jutarnji list - Pogledajte kako izgleda područje na koje su padali dijelovi letjelice, padobran visi sa stabla". www.jutarnji.hr (in Croatian). 11 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  18. ^ "Plenković o padu drona u Zagrebu: Lansiran je iz Ukrajine, ali ne znamo čiji je. Ovakvu situaciju ne možemo tolerirati. Ovo je bila prijetnja na koju treba reagirati". tportal.hr. Retrieved 12 March 2022.
  19. ^ "Prvi rezultati istrage srušenog drona: Ipak greška u navigaciji? Banožić: 'U subotu ćemo rutu..." Net.hr (in Croatian). 11 March 2022. Retrieved 12 March 2022.
  20. ^ "Pronađena crna kutija. Brigadir: Pretpostavljamo da je letjelica nosila bombu". www.index.hr (in Croatian). Retrieved 12 March 2022.
  21. ^ "Banožić: Na letjelici smo našli dijelove aviobombe". HRT Vijesti. 13 March 2022.
  22. ^ "Visoki izvor iz MORH-a: Bomba u letjelici težine do 120 kg, eksplodirala ispod zemlje". HRT Vijesti. 13 March 2022.
  23. ^ "'Jarunski' dron pripadao je ukrajinskim vojnim snagama". Nacional. No. 1247. 15 March 2022. Retrieved 17 March 2022.
  24. ^ "Plenković: Postoje tri scenarija o padu letjelice". www.index.hr (in Croatian). Retrieved 17 March 2022.
  25. ^ Telegram.hr. "Skandalozna reakcija NATO saveza na pad drona u Zagrebu: 'Pratili smo putanju objekta'". Telegram.hr (in Croatian). Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  26. ^ "Pad drona u Zagrebu velika blamaža NATO-a: "Ako vam se to dogodi u ratu nemate pojma što radite"". Novi list. 11 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  27. ^ "Slobodna Dalmacija - Blamaža NATO-a, ali i naših Oružanih snaga, ravna je slijetanju Mathiasa Rusta na Crveni trg! A što bi tek bilo da nam je doletio moćni ruski Kalibr?!". slobodnadalmacija.hr (in Croatian). 11 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  28. ^ "VIDEO Milanović: Letjelica je došla iz Ukrajine, ima šest tona. Ozbiljan incident". www.index.hr (in Croatian). Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  29. ^ "Tomašević: Ovo je događaj bez presedana, tako nešto se nikad nije dogodilo u Zagrebu". Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  30. ^ "VIDEO Tomašević o letjelici: Jako mi smeta ono što vidim u stranim medijima". www.index.hr.
  31. ^ "Tomašević oštro kritizirao strane medije zbog izvještavanja o padu letjelice". N1. 12 March 2022.
  32. ^ "Tomašević komentirao pad drona: 'Očekujem odgovore NATO-a. Ali, smetaju me napisi nekih medija...'". Net.hr. 12 March 2022.
  33. ^ "Mystery drone from Ukraine war crashes in Croatia". bbc.com. Retrieved 18 March 2022.
  34. ^ "Sve više se spominje možda najluđa teorija o padu drona: Je li netko upisao pogrešan Jarun?". jutarnji.hr. Retrieved 18 March 2022.
  35. ^ "'Za sporu reakciju nisu krivi ni Mađari ni Hrvati. Ovo je neobjašnjivi veliki propust NATO-a'". www.vecernji.hr (in Croatian). Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  36. ^ "Jutarnji list - Od SAD-a ćemo zahtijevati da kod nas razmjesti jedan od najboljih protuzračnih sustava". www.jutarnji.hr (in Croatian). 12 March 2022. Retrieved 12 March 2022.
  37. ^ "Savjetnik ukrajinskog ministra obrane: "To nije naša letjelica, istražite čija je"". Novi list. 11 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  38. ^ "Ruska agencija: Dva ukrajinska drona su za probu lansirana na Krim, jedan je skrenuo s puta... Ukrajina: To je lažnjak!". Dnevnik.hr (in Croatian). Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  39. ^ vijesti, R. T. L. "I Rusi peru ruke od letjelice koja je pala u Zagrebu. Rusko veleposlanstvo: 'Taj dron proizveden je na teritoriju Ukrajine'". Vijesti.hr (in Croatian). Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  40. ^ "Szijjarto: Mađarske vlasti surađuju u istrazi o dronu". Hrvatska radiotelevizija. Retrieved 12 March 2022.
  41. ^ "NATO Secretary General says drone crash in Zagreb was not an attack". glashrvatske.hrt.hr. Retrieved 18 March 2022.
  42. ^ "Rafalei i MiG-ovi proletjeli nad Zagrebom". index.hr. Retrieved 16 March 2022.
  43. ^ "Milanović zabranio prelete vojnih aviona nad Zagrebom i ostalim gradovima". index.hr. Retrieved 16 March 2022.
  44. ^ "Priopćenje Ureda predsjednika Republike Hrvatske". predsjednik.hr. Retrieved 16 March 2022.
  45. ^ "Ukraine's Reznikov: We certainly did not launch any drone towards Croatia". N1. 17 March 2022.
  46. ^ "Mađari su danas dva puta dizali svoje Gripene, jučer su samo pratili dron koji je pao u Zagrebu" [The Hungarians raised their Gripen twice today, yesterday they only followed the drone that fell in Zagreb]. Večernji list (in Croatian). 11 March 2022. Retrieved 15 March 2022.
  47. ^ "O dronă s-a prăbușit în apropiere de locuința unui bărbat din Bistrița. Parchet: "Nu a fost stabilită proveniența aeronavei"". Libertatea.ro. Retrieved 14 March 2022.
  48. ^ "Russian-made Orlan-10 drone crashes in Romania". aerotime.aero. Retrieved 14 March 2022.
  49. ^ "An unmanned aerial vehicle, most likely of Russian origin, was found in the Romanian municipality of Dumitra, just over 100 kilometers south of the Ukrainian border". Ukrinform. Retrieved 14 March 2022.
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