China and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

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The role of China in global responses to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has been described by several commentators as acting in a position of neutrality.[1][2][3]

Chinese government[edit]

On 25 February, China abstained from a United Nations Security Council vote denouncing the invasion.[4]

On 1 March, the Ukrainian and Chinese foreign Ministers Dmytro Kuleba and Wang Yi held their first phone call since the beginning of the invasion. Chinese media reported that Wang told Kuleba that he was "extremely concerned" about the risk to civilians and that it was necessary to "ease the situation as much as possible to prevent the conflict from escalating." Kuleba was reported to have said that Ukraine "looks forward to China playing a mediation role in achieving a ceasefire."[5]

On 2 March, American newspaper The New York Times published an article alleging that the Chinese government had advance warning of the invasion and had asked the Russian government to delay it until after the 2022 Winter Olympics.[6] The Chinese government denied the allegations, stating that the goal of "this kind of rhetoric is to divert attention and shift blame, which is utterly despicable."[7]

On 9 March, Chinese leader Xi Jinping held a video meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in which he stated that China was "pained to see the flames of war reignited in Europe" and called for the three countries to promote peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.[8]

On 15 March, Chinese Ambassador to the United States Qin Gang wrote an article in the Washington Post stating that "conflict between Russia and Ukraine does no good for China," that "the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine, must be respected; the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be taken seriously," and that "threats against Chinese entities and businesses, as uttered by some U.S. officials, are unacceptable."[9]

On 18 March, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and American President Joe Biden held a two-hour long meeting over video in which the conflict in Ukraine featured significantly. The American White House told the press after the call that Biden had warned Xi of "consequences if China provides material support to Russia."[10]

Chinese media[edit]

As of early March, Phoenix Television journalist Lu Yuguang was the only foreign correspondent to have been embedded with the frontline Russia forces.[11]

Chinese civil society[edit]

On 26 February, five Chinese historians signed an open letter opposing the invasion, stating that "great catastrophes in history often started with local conflicts." However, the letter was removed from the Internet by Chinese censors after three hours.[12]

On 5 March, Hu Wei, the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counsellors' Office of the State Council, wrote an article arguing that "China needs to respond flexibly and make strategic choices that conform to its long-term interests" and that "China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible."[13]

Evacuations of Chinese nationals from Ukraine[edit]

On 25 February, the Chinese embassy in Ukraine advised Chinese citizens to leave Ukraine. On 7 March, the Chinese government stated that it had evacuated most Chinese citizens from Ukraine.[14]

International reactions and commentary[edit]

Joseph Torigian of the American University described the Chinese government's position on the invasion as a "balancing act," stating that "both countries hold similarly negative views about America’s role in Europe and Asia" but that China would not be willing to put its financial interests at risk to support Russia, especially given that China was "trying to preserve its reputation as a responsible stakeholder."[15] Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institute has argued that "without Russia, the thinking goes, China would be alone to deal with a hostile west determined to obstruct China’s rise," but that the two countries "do not have perfectly aligned interests. China has a lot more to lose than Russia. China sees itself as a country on the rise with momentum behind it. Russia is essentially fighting the tides of decline."[16]

Several commentators have foreseen a potential role for China as a key mediator in the conflict. Érick Duchesne of the Université Laval has argued that "strategic ambiguity on the part of China could have a beneficial effect and help untie the Gordian knot of the crisis" and that it would be a "a serious mistake" for NATO countries to oppose Chinese mediation.[17] Zeno Leoni of King's College London argued that "should China lead parties involved to a new peace, it would be a major diplomatic and public relations victory for Beijing," as the Chinese government "would be able to present itself as a responsible great power and to convince the west that in future they might have to rely on Beijing’s global influence at a time when US influence is declining."[18]

Other commentators have stated that the Chinese response to the invasion has played a role in shaping the Indian response. Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution has argued that one of India's "foreign policy objectives is to keep Russia from getting even closer to China."[19]

References[edit]

  1. ^ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/ukraine-what-will-china-do-there-are-signs-it-is-uneasy-about-putins-methods
  2. ^ https://theconversation.com/ukraine-why-china-is-not-yet-bailing-out-russia-179403
  3. ^ https://www.ualberta.ca/china-institute/research/analysis-briefs/2022/ukraine.html
  4. ^ https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-vetoes-un-security-action-ukraine-china-abstains-2022-02-25/[bare URL]
  5. ^ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/china-mediate-ukraine-russia-war
  6. ^ https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china.html
  7. ^ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/china-russia-invade-ukraine-winter-olympics-beijing
  8. ^ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/9/chinas-xi-beijing-supports-peace-talks-between-russia-ukraine
  9. ^ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/15/china-ambassador-us-where-we-stand-in-ukraine/
  10. ^ "Xi tells Biden Russia-Ukraine fighting is in 'no one's interest'". Al Jazeera. 18 March 2022. Retrieved 19 March 2022.
  11. ^ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/16/im-on-the-frontline-in-mariupol-the-chinese-reporter-embedded-with-russian-troops
  12. ^ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/they-were-fooled-by-putin-chinese-historians-speak-out-against-russian-invasion
  13. ^ https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/
  14. ^ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/chinese-students-fled-ukraine-condemn-embassy-response
  15. ^ https://theconversation.com/chinas-balancing-act-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-explained-178750
  16. ^ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/16/how-close-are-china-and-russia-and-where-does-beijing-stand-on-ukraine
  17. ^ https://theconversation.com/why-china-could-become-a-mediator-in-negotiations-between-russia-and-ukraine-178736
  18. ^ https://theconversation.com/ukraine-conflict-the-pros-and-cons-of-china-as-global-peace-mediator-178447
  19. ^ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/18/chinas-decisive-turning-point-will-it-side-with-russia-and-divide-the-world