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Disinformation in the 2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian crisis

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Disinformation has been distributed by governmental agencies of Russian Federation and the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) separatist areas of Ukraine in relation to the 2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian crisis.[1][2][3] Disinformation has also been part of Ukrainian online propaganda ("information warfare") that has focused on heroes and martyrs which has in turn, dramatized tales of Ukrainian fortitude and Russian aggression.[4]

Aims and attribution

Pro-Kremlin TV and radio host Vladimir Solovyov voiced support for his country's invasion of Ukraine.[5]

Disinformation largely attributed to Russia since the 2014 beginning of the Russo–Ukrainian war aimed to show Ukraine being involved in serious human rights violations.[1]

In January 2022, aims of disinformation (misinformation intended to deliberately deceive) distributed by Russian authorities included using "wedge issues" to encourage disunity among Western countries in support for Ukraine; to counter themes promoted by the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO); to create plausible deniability for human rights violations carried out by Russian forces;[6] and to create a casus belli for further invading Ukraine.[3]

Effects

Putin and Konstantin Ernst, chief of Russia's main state-controlled TV station Channel One.[7]

In February 2022, Eliot Higgins of Bellingcat judged that the quality of Russian misinformation videos had weakened, but remained especially effective for the older generation of Russians.[3]

Some observers noted what they described as a "generational struggle" among Russians over perception of the war, with younger Russians generally opposed to the war and older Russians more likely to accept the narrative presented by state-controlled mass media in Russia.[8] Kataryna Wolczuk, an associate fellow of Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia programme, said that "[Older] Russians are inclined to think in line with the official 'narrative' that Russia is defending Russian speakers in Ukraine, so it's about offering protection rather than aggression."[8] About two-thirds of Russians use television as their primary source of daily news.[9]

Many Ukrainians say that their relatives and friends in Russia trust what the state-controlled media tells them and refuse to believe that there is a war in Ukraine and that the Russian army is shelling Ukrainian cities.[10][11][12]

A series of four online polls by Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation found that between February 25 and March 3, the share of Russian respondents who considered Russia an "aggressor" increased from 29% to 53%, while the share of those who considered Russia a "peacemaker" fell by half from 25% to 12%.[13]

Russian themes

Numerous themes of disinformation either originated in Russia or favoring the Russian point of view have been reported.

Liberation of Ukraine

A few weeks before the invasion of Ukraine, Putin's former adviser and Kremlin insider Sergei Markov said it would not be a "war against Ukraine, but to liberate Ukraine" from the pro-Western government that took power in 2014, adding that "a military operation now would prevent a wider war in future."[14] On 1 March 2022, Markov claimed that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a "war between Russia and (the) United States puppet who now occupy Ukraine. It’s liberation of Ukraine and it’s a proxy war of United States against Russia. We believe there’s no independent Ukrainian government and this government is wholly under the control of the United States security community."[15] Markov later admitted that the war in Ukraine was more difficult "than had been expected. It was expected that 30 to 50 percent of the Ukrainian Armed Forces would switch over to Russia’s side. No one is switching over."[16]

On 24 February 2022, Russian Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, who is part of Putin's inner circle, said that "the purpose" of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was "to protect people living in Ukraine".[17]

Prerecording of "urgent" call to evacuate

On 18 February 2022, leaders of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), the separatist areas of Ukraine involved in the War in Donbas, broadcast what was presented as an urgent appeal for citizens to evacuate to Russia. Metadata from Telegram showed that the recordings had been uploaded two days earlier, on 16 February.[1][2]

Fake assassination attempts

According to Bellingcat, a supposed bombing of a "separatist police chief" by a "Ukrainian spy", broadcast on Russian state television, showed visual evidence of the bombing of an old "green army vehicle". The old car's registration plate was that of the separatist police chief, but the same licence plate was also seen on a different, new SUV.[1][2][3]

On 18 February 2022, the Luhansk People's Republic showed video appearing to show the removal of a car full of explosives that had been prepared for blowing up a train full of women and children evacuating to Russia. The video's metadata showed that it had been recorded on 12 June 2019.[2]

Fake sabotage attempts

The breakaway Donetsk People's Republic released a video on 18 February 2022 that claimed to show Poles trying to blow up a chlorine tank. The video was distributed further by Russian media. The video's metadata showed that it was created on 8 February 2022, and included a mix of different pieces of audio or video, including a 2010 YouTube video from a military firing range in Finland.[2][3]

Ukrainian intelligence attributed responsibility for the video to the Russian intelligence service GRU.[3]

Claim of genocide in Donbas

In mid February 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin claimed that Ukraine was carrying out genocide in Donbas.[18] Putin's claims were dismissed by the international community,[19] and Russian claims of genocide have been widely rejected as baseless.[20][21][3] The European Commission has also rejected the allegations as "Russian disinformation".[22] The US embassy in Ukraine called the Russian genocide claim a "reprehensible falsehood".[23] Ned Price, a spokesperson for the US State Department, said that Moscow was making such claims as an excuse for invading Ukraine.[24]

Claims of neo-Nazism

Putin has repeatedly described Ukraine, which has a Jewish president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as being governed by neo-Nazis.[25][26] Putin has said he wants denazification of Ukraine.[27] Zelenskyy has stated that his grandfather served in the Soviet army fighting against the Nazis;[28] three of his family members died in the Holocaust.[29]

While Ukraine has a far-right fringe, including the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion and Right Sector,[30][31] analysts have described Putin's rhetoric as greatly exaggerating the influence of far-right groups within Ukraine; there is no widespread support for the ideology in the government, military, or electorate.[32] Ukraine's rejection of the adoption of Russia-initiated General Assembly resolutions on combating the glorification of Nazism, the latest iteration of which is General Assembly Resolution A/C.3/76/L.57/Rev.1 on Combating Glorification of Nazism, Neo-Nazism and other Practices that Contribute to Fueling Contemporary Forms of Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance, likewise serve to present Ukraine as a pro-Nazi state, and likewise underlines Russia's claims, with the only other state rejecting the adoption of the resolution being the US.[33][34] The Deputy US Representative for ECOSOC describes such resolutions as "thinly veiled attempts to legitimize Russian disinformation campaigns denigrating neighboring nations and promoting the distorted Soviet narrative of much of contemporary European history, using the cynical guise of halting Nazi glorification".[35]

Far-right nationalist groups have played a greater role on the pro-Russian side of the conflict than on the Ukrainian side, especially at the beginning.[36][37] Leaders of the Donetsk People's Militia are closely linked to the neo-Nazi party Russian National Unity (RNU) led by Alexander Barkashov, which has recruited many fighters.[37][38][39] A former member of RNU, Pavel Gubarev, was founder of the Donbas People's Militia and first "governor" of the Donetsk People's Republic.[37][40] RNU is particularly linked to the Russian Orthodox Army, a religious ultranationalist unit which is part of the Donetsk People's Militia.[39][41] Other neo-Nazi units include the 'Rusich', 'Svarozhich' and 'Ratibor' battalions, which have Slavic swastikas on their badges.[37] Another Russian separatist paramilitary unit, the Interbrigades, is made up of activists from the National Bolshevik (Nazbol) group Other Russia.[37] An article in Dissent noted that "despite their neo-Stalinist paraphernalia, many of the Russian-speaking nationalists Russia supports in the Donbass are just as right-wing as their counterparts from the Azov Battalion".[42]

Location of Ukrainian President

The Russian state media agency TASS claimed that Zelenskyy fled Kyiv following the invasion and also that he had surrendered. Zelenskyy used social media to post statements, videos and photos to counter the Russian disinformation.[43][44]

Claim of weapons of mass destruction

On 6 March 2022, Russian media agencies TASS, RIA and Interfax made unsubstantiated claims that Ukraine is making a nuclear dirty bomb.[45] The statement at the 2022 Munich Security Conference by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy about the failure of the Budapest Memorandum[46] were interpreted by Russian media as a threat that Ukraine might reconsider its nuclear status.

False flag fakes

In March 2022, videos were discovered purporting to show Ukrainian-produced disinformation about missile strikes inside Ukraine which were then "debunked" as some other event outside Ukraine. However, this may be the first case of a disinformation false-flag operation,[47] as the original, supposedly "Ukraine-produced" disinformation was never disseminated by anyone, and was in fact preventive disinformation created specifically in order to be debunked and cause confusion and mitigate the impact on the Russian public of real footage of Russian strikes within Ukraine that may get past Russian-controlled media. According to Patrick Warren, head of Clemson's Media Forensics Hub, "It's like Russians actually pretending to be Ukrainians spreading disinformation. ... The reason that it's so effective is because you don't actually have to convince someone that it's true. It's sufficient to make people uncertain as to what they should trust."[47]

Biological weapons labs

In March 2022, Russia made unsubstantiated allegations that Ukraine was developing biological weapons in a network of labs, linked to the US.[48] Additionally the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China and Chinese state media amplified Russian claims.[49][50][51] QAnon promoters were also echoing the disinformation.[52][53][54] BBC Reality Check found no evidence supporting Russian claims.[55] The United Nations also refuted the claim.[53][56] Russian biologists in and outside of Russia have debunked government claims, stating that the allegations are "transparently false".[57]

According to researcher Adam Rawnsley, the Kremlin has a history of discrediting ordinary biology labs in former Soviet republics, having previously spread conspiracy theories about Georgia and Kazakhstan similar to the accusations deployed against Ukraine.[58][59]

Fake news masquerading as CNN

During the crisis, a number of fabricated CNN headlines and stories went viral on social media.[60] Misinformation spread on social media included a faked image of CNN reporting that Steven Seagal had been seen alongside the Russian military,[60] false tweets claiming that a CNN journalist had been killed in Ukraine,[60][61] a CNN lower third that was digitally altered to include a claim that Putin had issued a statement warning India not to interfere in the conflict,[60][62] and another that was altered to claim that Putin planned to delay the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine until "Biden delivers weapons to Ukraine for Russia to capture",[63] as well as a fabricated CNN tweet supposedly reporting on a figure referred to as "the Kharkiv Kid finder" alongside an image that actually portrayed YouTuber Vaush, who was not in Kharkiv at the time.[64][65]

Ukrainian themes

The Ghost of Kyiv

On the second day of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, videos and picture went viral on social media, with claims that an Ukrainian pilot nicknamed the "Ghost of Kyiv" had shot down 6 Russian fighter jets in the first 30 hours of the war. However there have been no credible evidence that he existed.[66] A video of the alleged pilot was shared on Facebook and the official Twitter account of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, was later found to be from the video game Digital Combat Simulator World.[67][68] An altered photo was also shared by the former president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko.[69]

Reactions

The United States Department of State and the European External Action Service of the European Union (EU) published guides aiming to respond to Russian disinformation.[6] Twitter paused all ad campaigns in Ukraine and Russia in an attempt to curb misinformation spread by ads.[70]

Although the 1993 Russian Constitution has an article expressly prohibiting censorship,[71] the Russian censorship apparatus Roskomnadzor ordered the country's media to only employ information from Russian state sources or face fines and blocks, accusing a number of independent media outlets of spreading "unreliable socially significant untrue information" about the shelling of Ukrainian cities by the Russian army and civilian deaths.[72][73]

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Dmitry Muratov, the editor-in-chief of the Russian independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta, released dual editions of his newspaper in both Russian and Ukrainian and said that his newspaper would defy the Russian media watchdog’s rules that they only report official government information about the war, trusting reporting only from their own newsroom.[74] Muratov said that "Everything that’s not propaganda is being eliminated."[75] Roskomnadzor launched an investigation against the Novaya Gazeta, Echo of Moscow, inoSMI, MediaZona, New Times, Dozhd (TV Rain), and other independent Russian media outlets for publishing "inaccurate information about the shelling of Ukrainian cities and civilian casualties in Ukraine as a result of the actions of the Russian Army".[76] On 1 March 2022, the Russian government blocked access to Dozhd, as well as Echo of Moscow, in response to their coverage of the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. The channel closed, with its general director announcing they would be "temporarily halting its operations", on 3 March 2022.[77]

On 4 March 2022, President Putin signed into law a bill introducing prison sentences of up to 15 years for those who publish "knowingly false information" about the Russian military and its operations, leading to some media outlets in Russia to stop reporting on Ukraine.[78][75]

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