Croatian parliamentary election, 2015
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| Results of the election in each of the ten electoral districts of Croatia: the party with the plurality of votes in each electoral unit. HDZ: blue; SDP: red |
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The 2015 Croatian parliamentary election was held on 8 November 2015.[1] All 151 seats in the Parliament were up for election. This parliamentary election was the 8th since the 1990 first multi-party election and the first since Croatia joined the European Union in 2013.
The ruling center-left Croatia is Growing coalition, led by Prime Minister Zoran Milanović, was challenged by the center-right Patriotic Coalition led by the Croatian Democratic Union and headed by its party chairman Tomislav Karamarko, and also faced several new political coalitions.
Preliminary results indicate a hung parliament, with the ruling Croatia is Growing coalition winning 56 seats in the 10 electoral constituencies within Croatia and 2 of the 8 representatives of national minorities. The opposition Patriotic Coalition won 56 seats within Croatia and all three seats allocated to Croatian citizens living abroad, winning 59 seats, only one seat more than the ruling coalition. The IDS-PGS-RI coalition is expected to side with Croatia is Growing, as well as the remaining 5 minority representatives, giving Prime Minister Zoran Milanović's coalition 67 seats to 59 for Tomislav Karamarko's opposition coalition. The third-placed MOST led by Metković mayor Božo Petrov, which won 19 seats, is expected to be the deciding factor in the formation of the next government of Croatia. After the election Drago Prgomet of MOST stated that neither Zoran Milanović nor Tomislav Karamarko would be their choice for Prime Minister and that MOST will decide on who will head the 13th government of Croatia.[2] Some within MOST have stated they prefer the formation of a national unity government made up of HDZ, SDP and MOST, though this is considered extremely unlikely. [3] On 11 November Patriotic coalition leader Tomislav Karamarko openly rejected the prospect of an HDZ-SDP-MOST government.[4]
A total of 17 parties won representation in the 8th assembly of the Croatian Parliament: HDZ (51), SDP (42), MOST (19), HNS (9 + 2 national minority representatives), Labourists (3), IDS (3), HSP-AS (3), HSU (2), HSLS (2), Bandić Milan 365 (2), HDSSB (2), BUZ (1), HSS (1), Human Blockade (1), HRAST (1), HDS (1) and Reformists (1).[5]
Contents
Background[edit]
The 2011 general election was held on 4 December 2011 and resulted in the victory of the center-left Kukuriku coalition led by the Social Democratic Party and supported by the Croatian People's Party – Liberal Democrats, Croatian Party of Pensioners and the Istrian Democratic Assembly. The largest opposition party is the center-right Croatian Democratic Union. Other smaller opposition parties are the Croatian Labourists – Labour Party and the Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja.
The previous 7th Assembly of the Croatian Parliament was dissolved on 28 September 2015, with the President of Croatia Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović subsequently being tasked with scheduling the elections on a Sunday within 60 days of the dissolution.[6]
Electoral system[edit]
Elections will be held in 10 electoral districts inside Croatia each with a roughly equal number of registered voters and 14 seats, supplemented by one electoral district for Croatian citizens living abroad (3 seats), and one electoral district for national minorities (8 seats). Parties or alliances have to pass a 5% threshold in an electoral district in order to get seats, which are then distributed proportionally between all lists passing the threshold using D'Hondt. Candidates are selected using the most open list system for candidates getting at least 10% of the party's votes. Candidates receiving less will be chosen according to their ranking on the list.
Electoral law amendments[edit]
In February 2015 the Croatian parliament voted to amend the country's election rules by introducing a number of changes, most importantly introducing an element of preferential voting by letting candidate selection function as a most open list system for candidates receiving a minimum of 10%, while keeping list ranking for those that do not meet this quota. In addition there were several other changes, including a gender quota and a ban on convicted criminals running. The proposal came from the ruling Social Democratic Party as well as several other minor changes. The opposition left Parliament and did not participate in the voting process.[7] However, on 25 September 2015 the Constitutional Court of Croatia ruled that most of the changes to the electoral law were unconstitutional, including a ban on convicted criminals running for office, an electoral list quota of 40% candidates of each gender and an obligation to collect 1,500 signatures for a political party to run in an electoral district. This left the new method of candidate selection as the only change.
Political parties[edit]
Opinion polls[edit]
Results[edit]
On November 9, 2015 State Election Commission published only the provisional official results from the 99.9% of regular polling stations because elections will be repeated in 7 polling stations because of some irregularities.
None of the parties managed to get majority of 76 seats needed for a parliamentary majority so two major coalitions will start coalition talks in the next days.
Centre-right Patriotic Coalition won 59[19] seats, centre-left Croatia is Growing coalition 58 (2 national minority representatives side with the Croatian People's Party - Liberal Democrats), centre Bridge of Independent Lists 19, centre-left Istrian Democratic Assembly 3, right wing Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja and centre Milan Bandić 365 - The Party of Labour and Solidarity 2 each, centre Human Blockade and centre People's Party - Reformists 1 each. As for the 8 mandates of minority representatives, 3 go to Croatia is Growing because those representatives are members of HNS party or its parliamentary club, while Independent Democratic Serb Party that won 3 seats confirmed that it would negotiate with Croatia is Growing. In addition, Istrian Democratic Assembly also confirmed that it would negotiate only with Croatia is Growing.
National minorities elected 8 representatives through a separate election system: Milorad Pupovac (75,9% of votes), Mile Horvat (59,2%) and Mirko Rašković (54,4%) for the Serb national minority, Sándor Juhász (50,2%) for the Hungarian minority, Furio Radin (65,8%) for the Italian minority, Vladimir Bilek (75,7%) for the Czech and Slovak minorities, Veljko Kajtazi (41,4%) for the Austrian, Bulgarian, German, Jewish, Polish, Roma, Romanian, Rusyn, Russian, Turkish, Ukrainian, Vlach minorities and Ermina Lekaj Prljaskaj (21,1%) for the Albanian, Bosniak, Macedonian, Montenegrin and Slovene minorities.
Summary
| Parties and coalitions | Votes | % | Swing | Seats | % | +/– | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic electoral districts (1st–10th) | ||||||||
| Patriotic Coalition (Domoljubna koalicija) |
HDZ, HSS, HSP AS, BUZ, HSLS, Hrast, HDS, ZDS | 746.626 | 33.36% | -4.6% | 56 | 37.1% | +10 | |
| Croatia is Growing (Hrvatska raste) |
SDP, HNS, HSU, Croatian Labourists - Labour Party, A-HSS, ZS | 742.909 | 33.2% | -12.3% | 56 | 37.1% | –18 | |
| Bridge of Independent Lists (Most nezavisnih lista) | 302.453 | 13.51% | New | 19 | 12.6% | New | ||
| Our Own Right (Pravo na svoje) |
IDS, PGS, RI | 42,193 | 1.83% | 3 | 2.0% | ±0 | ||
| Labour and Solidarity Coalition (Koalicija rada i solidarnosti) |
Bandić 365, DPS, DSŽ, HES, HRS, Zeleni, ID-DI, MS, NSH, Novi val, SU, UDU, Zeleni, ZS | 74.301 | 3.32% | New | 2 | 1.3% | +2 | |
| Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja (Hrvatski demokratski savez Slavonije i Baranje) | 30.443 | 1.36% | -1.5% | 2 | 1.3% | –4 | ||
| Human Blockade (Živi zid) | 94.877 | 4.24% | New | 1 | 0.7% | New | ||
| Successful Croatia (Uspješna Hrvatska) |
Reformists, Forward Croatia!, Pensioners, ZF, DDS | 34.573 | 1.54% | New | 1 | 0.7% | +1 | |
| Sustainable Development of Croatia (Održivi razvoj Hrvatske) | 38.830 | 1.74% | New | 0 | – | New | ||
| In the Name of the Family – Project Homeland (U ime Obitelji – projekt Domovina) | 23.429 | 1.05% | New | 0 | – | New | ||
| Other parties and independent lists | 66.755 | 3.0% | 0 | — | –3 | |||
| Domestic turnout | 2,238,003 (60.82%) | |||||||
| District XI – Croatian citizens living abroad | ||||||||
| Patriotic Coalition (Domoljubna koalicija) |
HDZ, HSS, HSP AS, BUZ, HSLS, Hrast, HDS, ZDS | 24,444 | 85.69% | +13.7 | 3 | 2.0% | ±0 | |
| Labour and Solidarity Coalition (Koalicija rada i solidarnosti) |
Bandić 365, DPS, DSŽ, HES, HRS, Zeleni, ID-DI, MS, NSH, Novi val, SU, UDU, Zeleni, ZS | 1,226 | 4.30% | New | 0 | – | New | |
| Bridge of Independent Lists (Most nezavisnih lista) | 1,111 | 3.89% | New | 0 | – | New | ||
| Other District XI lists | 1,744 | 6.1% | –22.8 | 0 | — | ±0 | ||
| District XI turnout | 28,944 | |||||||
| Statistics for the first 11 electoral districts | ||||||||
| Registered voters | 3.788.788 | |||||||
| Valid votes | 2.365.821 | |||||||
| Invalid votes | 39.367 | |||||||
| District XII – National minority electoral district | ||||||||
| Independent Democratic Serb Party (Samostalna demokratska srpska stranka) | Differing election system | 3 | 2.0% | ±0 | ||||
| Union of Hungarian Associations (Savez mađarskih udruga – Magyar Egyesületek Szövetsége) | 1 | 0.7% | ||||||
| Association for the Promotion of Roma Education in Croatia "Saint Sara" (Udruga za promicanje obrazovanja Roma u Republici Hrvatskoj "Kali Sara") |
1 | 0.7% | ||||||
| Forum of Albanian Intellectuals, Cultural Association of the Albanian National Minority Zadar, Traditional Association "Hasi", Association of Kosovars in Croatia (FAI, KUANMZ, Hasi, Kosova-RH) | 1 | 0.7% | ||||||
| Independents (Italian minority) | 1 | 0.7% | ±0 | |||||
| Croatia is Growing (HNS-LD) (Czech/Slovak minority) | 1 | 0.7% | ±0 | |||||
| Overall statistics | ||||||||
| Total parliamentary seats | 151 | 100.0% | ±0 | |||||
| Sources: State Election Committee;[20] Dnevnik[21] | ||||||||
Distribution of seats by electoral districts[edit]
| Party / District | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | XII |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriotic Coalition | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | — |
| Croatia is Growing | 7 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 4 | — | — |
| Most | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | — |
| IDS+PGS+RI | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — |
| Bandić 365 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| HDSSB | — | — | — | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Human Blockade | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Successful Croatia | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ethnic minorities | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 |
Government formation[edit]
According to preliminary results (99,90% of the votes) the ruling Croatia is Growing coalition won 56 seats, amounting to 59 due to the coalition with IDS.[22] The opposition Patriotic Coalition won 59 seats. The third-largest party in Parliament is MOST (Croatian for bridge) led by Božo Petrov which won 19 seats and it is considered necessary for either the ruling Croatia is Growing coalition or the opposition Patriotic coalition to gain the support of MOST in order to gain a majority of 76 seats needed to form a government. MOST has stated that it will not enter into coalition with either of the two largest blocs and that it will instead present its own candidate for Prime Minister.[23] On 12 November MOST member Drago Prgomet was expelled from the party for holding private talks with Prime Minister Zoran Milanović without the knowledge of other members of the party's leadership.[24] There are four possible outcomes, the first is that HDZ forms a coalition with MOST, which is unlikely due to the animosity between Petrov and Karamarko, the second is that SDP forms a coalition with MOST, which is also not likely, the third is forming of a coalition of HDZ and SDP, two main opposing parties, which is least likely, and the fourth is repeating the elections in January 2016.[25] Most Croatian media are reporting that Prime Minister Zoran Milanović is closer to gaining the 76 seats needed for a majority in Parliament than Tomislav Karamarko, the former having reportedly gained the support of IDS and the 8 MPs elected by national minorities. It is also reported that Milan Bandić, whose party won 2 seats, as well as Radimir Čačić of Forward Croatia! - Progressive Alliance are also more likely to support Milanović. The regional party HDSSB is considered very unlikely to support a Patriotic Coalition government, but they might support Croatia is Growing through a minority government.[26]
References[edit]
- ^ http://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/kolinda-objavila-na-izbore-izlazimo-8-studenog/846227.aspx
- ^ "Drago Prgomet: Mi ćemo predložiti svog mandatara, to neće biti ni Milanović ni Karamarko". 2015-11-09. Retrieved 2015-11-09.
- ^ "Razmišljamo o Vladi HDZ-Most-SDP". 2015-11-10. Retrieved 2015-11-10.
- ^ "Karamarko odbio Petrova: Ne želima sjediti s ljudima koji su uništili Hrvatsku-Vlada će biti stručna i ekspertna tek kad ja postanem mandatar". 2015-11-11. Retrieved 2015-11-11.
- ^ "Ekskluzivna infografika: Ovo su ljudi koji su izabrani u novi saziv Sabora, u parlament ušli predstavnici 17 stranaka". 2015-11-10. Retrieved 2015-11-10.
- ^ "Predsjednica idući tjedan objavljuje datum izbora". www.vecernji.hr. 2015-09-29. Retrieved 2015-10-03.
- ^ "Croatian parliament backs changes to electoral law". europeanvoice.com. 2015-02-26. Retrieved 2015-02-26.
- ^ "Zbogom 'Kukuriku', rođena je nova koalicija - Hrvatska raste". www.dnevnik.hr. 2015-09-08. Retrieved 2015-10-02.
- ^ http://www.sdp.hr/media/303876/statut-sdp.pdf
- ^ http://www.sabor.hr/Default.aspx?sec=4577
- ^ http://hns.hr/index.php/dokumenti/2012-04-20-01-45-30/programske-smjernice
- ^ http://hns.hr/index.php/dokumenti/2012-04-20-01-45-30/statut
- ^ "Domoljubna koalicija". Retrieved 2015-10-03.
- ^ "Domoljubna koalicija u Vukovaru potpisala koalicijski sporazum". www.dnevnik.hr. 2015-09-21. Retrieved 2015-10-02.
- ^ http://hdz.hr/static/media/attached_files/attachedfileitem/Statut/STATUT_HDZ-a_2012.pdf
- ^ http://reformisti.hr/dokumenti/program
- ^ http://www.sabor.hr/istarski-demokrati
- ^ http://www.sabor.hr/novi-val-stranka-razvoja
- ^ 56 + 3 from District XI
- ^ "Izbori 2015 - Rezultati" (in Croatian). State Election Committee of the Republic of Croatia. 2015-11-09. Retrieved 2015-11-09.
- ^ "Domoljubna koalicija 59 Hrvatska raste 56, MOST 19 mandata". Dnevnik (in Croatian). 2015-11-09. Retrieved 2015-11-09.
- ^ http://www.jutarnji.hr/ni-karamarko-ni-milanovic-ne-mogu-bez-mosta-kome-ce-se-oni-prikloniti-mogli-bismo-znati-vec-danas/1454429/
- ^ "DRAGO PRGOMET POSLAO PORUKU HDZ-u i SDP-u: Novog mandatara predložit će MOST, a to neće biti ni Tomislav Karamarko ni Zoran Milanović". 2015-11-09. Retrieved 2015-11-09.
- ^ "Veliki potres u Mostu: Drago Prgomet nakon što je izletio iz stranke: Što ću sa svojim mandatom- to pitajte 22 000 građana koji su glasali za mene". 2015-11-12. Retrieved 2015-11-12.
- ^ http://www.jutarnji.hr/cetiri-scenarija-za-sastav-nove-vlade-ako-most-odbije-sve--u-sijecnju-novi-izbori-ili-velika-koalicija/1454246/
- ^ . 2015-11-15 http://www.jutarnji.hr/milanovic-blize-sastavljanju-vlade--sdp-tvrdi-da-su-dobili-bandica-i-tehnicku-potporu-hdssb-a/1457957/. Retrieved 2015-11-15. Missing or empty
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External links[edit]
- Official results by State Election Committee (Interactive Map)
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